Rumors. Musings. Casual.

[mickEblu]

Have we entered the rumor phase yet? Or are we still just musing and casualing? Haha

 

[SuddenStorm]

Don’t blame you. This will be our first trip since 2020. We used to go twice per year. After this trip, Tokyo is getting my money the next time we get the Disney itch.

I plan on visiting Tokyo soon- from what I hear it's the last bastion of the traditional Disney parks experience.

By all counts employee standards are as high as ever- they still enforce grooming standards and a higher level of service, which the American parks abandoned years ago.

Ride maintenance is top tier in a way the American parks haven't been in years. They also have refrained from most of the unnecessary alterations made stateside. Heck, they still have the Country Bear Jamboree- which is more than Disneyland and Magic Kingdom can say. And Splash Mountain.

Their merchandise is supposed to be solid.

The ticket prices aren't as outrageous either.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

On the one hand, I get the idea of “if we can get away with charging it, do it.”

On the other, going up the rate it has in 20 years is peak absurdity

There has always been a fine line between “expensive” and “ripoff”

Prior management was aware of that…so they employed a strategy that didn’t bring it into play nearly as much

 

[BrianLo]

At current prices, it would take almost 20 years to break even.

Undoubtedly, but they keep on selling them at the same pace as ever. Add a few years of Disney hotel price march and next thing we know we're halving that timeframe and calling the DVC purchases of yore a genius.

Maybe we'll reach a peak, but that's not a uniquely Disney problem. I'm still not over hotel prices being 100$ for a 'nice hotel' - I'm not talking Disney, talking other major tourist areas. Barely 15 years ago during the recession. Now good luck finding much under 500 dollars a night in Maui that's remotely beach adjacent. Even the Marriott Ko Olina (which people love to compare Disney hotels to brand wise) is rocking 500.

The next psychological barrier to fall seems to be 1000 dollar a night hotel rooms, insanity.

 

[BrianLo]

I plan on visiting Tokyo soon- from what I hear it's the last bastion of the traditional Disney parks experience.

The ticket prices aren't as outrageous either.

As low as 43 USD... you guys really all need to go utilize your US purchasing power in Japan right now. It's shockingly affordable.

 

[mickEblu]

Undoubtedly, but they keep on selling them at the same pace as ever. Add a few years of Disney hotel price march and next thing we know we're halving that timeframe and calling the DVC purchases of yore a genius.

Maybe we'll reach a peak, but that's not a uniquely Disney problem. I'm still not over hotel prices being 100$ for a 'nice hotel' - I'm not talking Disney, talking other major tourist areas. Barely 15 years ago during the recession. Now good luck finding much under 500 dollars a night in Maui that's remotely beach adjacent. Even the Marriott Ko Olina (which people love to compare Disney hotels to brand wise) is rocking 500.

The next psychological barrier to fall seems to be 1000 dollar a night hotel rooms, insanity.

My theory is that aside from Disney having a unique product, they have been able to get away with it due to the struggling middle class. When people feel that they're so behind the 8 ball and that they'll never get ahead, I think you subconsciously start to decide that "im just going to live for the day. If that means a ton of debt so be it." $1000 a night is a high psychological barrier but who knows with inflation maybe it won't sound so bad. Haha.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

DVC sold the most number of points last year than it has since 2011. (Discluding Aulani from all years).

The issue is as resort rates rise, it continues to justify DVC, which is a half hedge on prices never being lower than they are currently. Which has consistently been true for 20 years. The real risk to DVC is if it’s locked in at a peak and the resort cash prices start declining. Which they certainly could, I have no crystal ball.

View attachment 769374

Notice any trends in that chart?

 

[BrianLo]

Notice any trends in that chart?

Recessions and new resorts openings?

Or that you just mean it's largely flat over a decade. I'm not sure if they care about it being flat, being able to grow your user base at similar levels year on year is pretty impressive (knowing the vast majority of new purchasers are new). Not saying it's smart, but kind of impressive they've kept the charade up so long.

Still some value to be had in resale or niche cases, but the direct price is accelerating, ridiculously so.

 

[mickEblu]

I plan on visiting Tokyo soon- from what I hear it's the last bastion of the traditional Disney parks experience.

By all counts employee standards are as high as ever- they still enforce grooming standards and a higher level of service, which the American parks abandoned years ago.

Ride maintenance is top tier in a way the American parks haven't been in years. They also have refrained from most of the unnecessary alterations made stateside. Heck, they still have the Country Bear Jamboree- which is more than Disneyland and Magic Kingdom can say. And Splash Mountain.

Their merchandise is supposed to be solid.

The ticket prices aren't as outrageous either.

If I didn't have kids Id be there yesterday. Now, it'll probably have to wait some time. WDW sounds much easier with the kids. Plus you can cross off 4 parks instead of just two. I have to catch up to my sister who has been to all of the Disney Parks except Tokyo Disneyland, Disney Sea and Hong Kong Disneyland. I should have never told her to visit Shanghai Disneyland when she had a layover there on the way to Bali for her honeymoon. Really regret that. Hard for me to imagine ever getting out there. Tokyo and Paris I can see.

 

[doctornick]

These things have been popping up all over the place. Soarin' may have been one of the first to do it, but it's definitely not as good as these new ones popping up.

I rode a version if this exact ride system in Pigeon Forge... I thoroughly enjoyed it! It was awesome and just felt 'new.' I'm gonna try the one over in New York City next week.

The thing is that a lot of them are fairly expensive for a one and done experience. If you have a family of multiple people, it can add up for just a 20 minute experience especially if that’s part of a larger vacation where you are otherwise spending money.

Soarin’ at least is “included” in your Epcot admission and you could do it multiple times if desired without additional costs. There's a real benefit to having a bunch of experiences included for one price vs paying a la carte (admittedly though Genie+ and ILL erodes this).

I do think it would be good to run both versions in different theaters at the same time though for varied experiences.

 

[doctornick]

So @pheneix in another thread, the site owners commented that some major (new) entertainment options are being developed for WDW. Have you heard anything to that effect and how does it jive with Disney have poor cash flow currently?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Recessions and new resorts openings?

Or that you just mean it's largely flat over a decade. I'm not sure if they care about it being flat, being able to grow your user base at similar levels year on year is pretty impressive (knowing the vast majority of new purchasers are new). Not saying it's smart, but kind of impressive they've kept the charade up so long.

Still some value to be had in resale or niche cases, but the direct price is accelerating, ridiculously so.

No you got it. It’s tied 1:1 with recessions (or lack there of) and the number of units being sold.

That’s not a real show of “popularity” of the product…more external factors.

The best measure of popularity is still
How long it takes them to sell a particular place.

 

[TheEPCOTHistorian]

I even recall a $99 rate at the Cabins and booked Pop Century for $49/nt for a business trip post-2000.

I remember planning short weekend staycations with my parents at Pop for less than $100 a night pre-2020. We forget that some of this stuff has happened *very* recently.

 

[Smooth]

When my wife and I got married in 1981 the Contemporary Resort was $65 a night.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Undoubtedly, but they keep on selling them at the same pace as ever. Add a few years of Disney hotel price march and next thing we know we're halving that timeframe and calling the DVC purchases of yore a genius.

Maybe we'll reach a peak, but that's not a uniquely Disney problem. I'm still not over hotel prices being 100$ for a 'nice hotel' - I'm not talking Disney, talking other major tourist areas. Barely 15 years ago during the recession. Now good luck finding much under 500 dollars a night in Maui that's remotely beach adjacent. Even the Marriott Ko Olina (which people love to compare Disney hotels to brand wise) is rocking 500.

The next psychological barrier to fall seems to be 1000 dollar a night hotel rooms, insanity.

Well…the “price march” part is the problem. They haven’t been able to schlep the top price rooms for quite some time…so the pace of dvc price increases has outpaced that march…by quite a bit.

Anyone buying dvc for the last 8-10 years is basically getting ripped off.

And that’s just the lodging. The Slaphead gutting of perks and incentives is just abjectly stupid. Dvc is running out of runway…and they know it

 

[Vinnie Mac]

Reading this thread has me so intrigued. 2-3 years ago I would have been jumping to defend Disney on all of this but 2 visits to Universal and one Iger CEO reign later i suddenly find myself incredibly critical of Disney right now as well. Very excited for D23 this year because I know it's going to be chaotic. Whether it's the good chaotic or the bad chaotic we'll have to see

I'm currently of the belief that the 2020's is the Universal Decade (much like the 1990's was the Disney decade) and anything Disney does now to course correct is just playing catch up to get to a place they should have been in anyways

 

[JD80]

I found a random blog post about the Wilderness Lodge from February of 2014 and reference to prices of Deluxe:

Wilderness Lodge: $325 ($426.93) (Standard View Value) vs. $561 (736.95) (Standard View Holiday)

Inflation adjusted numbers in parenthesis. Random October 2024 pricing is $600.

 

[fgmnt]

The cost difference isn’t that much. Wilderness starting rate was $109 in 2004…they jacked it into oblivion and then had to convert half to dvc.

Pop for $225+ a night is bugnuts

If you’re flying into Orlando and not renting a car, last i checked you can get Dolphin around that price and the units open up into an air conditioned hallway.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I found a random blog post about the Wilderness Lodge from February of 2014 and reference to prices of Deluxe:

Wilderness Lodge: $325 ($426.93) (Standard View Value) vs. $561 (736.95) (Standard View Holiday)

Inflation adjusted numbers in parenthesis. Random October 2024 pricing is $600.

Then occupancy fell to 50% and they gutted half the rooms for vacation club.

Ask around…they straight up over priced it and couldn’t sell it

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

If you’re flying into Orlando and not renting a car, last i checked you can get Dolphin around that price and the units open up into an air conditioned hallway.

Base price + $45 property fee.

Random test day I see Dolphin $238 ($283 with fee, more if you have a car).

Coronado Springs = $247

Pop = $165