Revenge Vacation: Only Actual Data Need Apply

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The problem isn't the buyers and potential buyers... we love those. It's the renters and bleeding hearts trying to develop rental complexes or (tiny home) neighborhoods, which in turn, is a threat to every realtor in the region. Luckily our voices have been heard (mostly) as we nicely show those threats the door out. Me and over 200 other FL realtors helped keep a low-rent unit from taking over near a popular sporting complex not too long ago. It's a constant battle in this state.

You do whatever it is you need to do…

But If you’re going to preach “high value” real estate in Florida…it’s gonna get interesting. Especially if we’re talking central florida…

Where you around in the 2005ish era? What did it do In 2008?

Things booming now?

…just you wait…


(This brought to you by Dr. Seuss)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

My husband and I just got back from traveling, but not "revenge". We opted out of our annual trip to disney. Instead, we took a road trip and drove 1000 miles each way to Tennessee. We stayed with my brother and visited friends and family. We ate out every day at nice restaurants, bought whatever souveniers we wanted or other items, and spent a lot of money on gas! We stayed only 2 nights at hotels but I was very surprised to find a nice Best Western cost over $200.00 a night!
We had a great time. It was relaxing and enjoyable.
I figured up the receipts from our trip, including those very high gas bills, and it totaled less than $800.00!!!
I was expecting more than a thousand, because we didn't look at prices; just bought what we wanted.
Our disney trip for 7 days (we stayed in Tn. for 7 days too) would have been around 5000 for resort hotel and tickets, plus airfare for 2 would have been around $750 each for roundtrip out of our north Mn. town.
We saved a bundle with our trip, enjoyed it immensely, with no hassle or frustrations.
I wouldn't call it revenge travel, just an enjoyable replacement trip instead of our usual WDW trip.
Yes I know, it would have cost more if we had stayed at an airbnb, but I am comparing the 2 different trips. One trip, WDW, would have been very expensive for what you get, exhausting, frustrating, crowded, etc verses a relaxing, fun trip to the South which cost much less and ROI was fantastic.

Did you got to Pigeon Forge?

 

[Tha Realest]

It is certainly reasonable to see that some destinations are bouncing back more than others. But noticing that some of the more popular destinations are fully booked is not the same thing as data regarding the entirety of the travel industry.

E.g., if a seaside resort pre-pandemic would normally fully book up, with an extra 20% locked out because they didn't reserve early enough, but now, that same seaside resort is again fully booking-up, but with only an extra 5% locked out. That's less vacationers, although, to those at that resort, it would seem that everything is back to normal.

I'm not saying that there isn't a rebound that's exceeding pre-pandemic times. Just waiting for congregate data to show that's the case for the whole industry, and not, for example, the most popular theme park in the world.

I’m fascinated by this discussion. As I said a few days ago, I think anecdotal perceptions of “busyness” or crowds are more a reflection that the businesses can’t fully staff, so while they’re capped out (on flights, at restaurants, in parks) they’re taking on less customers than they could otherwise that if they were fully staffed.

Some interesting metrics. First, the TSA year by year comparison (for certain dates) of travel. As you can see, we’re not yet near the 2019 numbers of flyers-per-day. In fact, there appear to be another 400K or so more fliers on a given day in 2022 than in 2021. I would expect a lot more, honestly. Now, is the shortfall a reduction of business travelers vs vacationers? No way of knowing.

Next, here’s an article re hotel occupancy in larger cities. They were predicting a rebound, but no where near the 2019 levels.

https://nypost.com/2022/04/20/nyc-hotel-and-tourism-business-has-long-road-to-recovery-study/amp/

 

[Magenta Panther]

The problem isn't the buyers and potential buyers... we love those. It's the renters and bleeding hearts trying to develop rental complexes or (tiny home) neighborhoods, which in turn, is a threat to every realtor in the region. Luckily our voices have been heard (mostly) as we nicely show those threats the door out. Me and over 200 other FL realtors helped keep a low-rent unit from taking over near a popular sporting complex not too long ago. It's a constant battle in this state.

What's wrong with tiny home neighborhoods? Some tiny homes I've seen are awesome. They're easier to maintain, take up less land, and are more affordable than bigger homes. Imagine living in a nice space in a nice location with no mortgage. Talk about a dream come true!

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

Did you got to Pigeon Forge?

No we didn't do any sight seeing in the Mountains. We used to live in Tennessee and have been to most places at least once. That area is beautiful though. I would love to go to Dollywood on our next trip = never been there! We stayed west of Nashville and ventured to the Tennessee River area where we used to live. I love Tn. It is such a beautiful state.

 

[Christina M]

So, the topic of "Revenge Travel" keeps popping up. Everyone agrees the naming convention is dumb. But many many people believe the phenomenon is real: That people have a pent-up demand for vacation because of the past two years of travel restrictions, and so, people are now exuberantly jumping at taking vacations such that the level of vacationing is at or surpassing the pre-pandemic rate of travel/vacationing.

Are they, tho?

There are a lot of polls saying that's what people *intend* on doing. But, are they doing it?

There are a lot of anecdotal accounts, but, anecdotes can be misleading... it's not actual evidence.

And here is the most frustrating part when trying to find data: Over and over again there are articles saying that trips, and flights, and cruises, and bookings are up, up, UP!!!.... But they compare it to last year! You know, the year of restrictive travel rules. And a pandemic.

Yeah, comparing what's happening now to last year is *of course* going to show travel and vacationing is up.

The real comparison would be to ask: Is it at or above the pre-pandemic levels?

And the answer to that is: No. Despite lots of predictions that Revenge Travel is taking off, it hasn't manifested in actual data when compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Of course when people had been accustomed to yearly traveling, but a pandemic shuts that down for two years, they then are eager to travel again. Of course. But, is it a surge that rivals and surpasses pre-pandemic traveling and vacationing? Actual data says... not yet.

The holiday weekend in the U.S. resembles prepandemic times, as experts and the White House remain wary of virus risk.

While there is a rise in confirmed daily coronavirus cases and hospitalizations, Memorial Day observations are not being scrapped.

www.nytimes.com

“We’re approaching prepandemic numbers,” said Andrew Gobeil, a spokesman for Hartsfield–Jackson International Airport in Atlanta, the world’s busiest airport. He said on Friday that he expected more than 2 million passengers between Thursday and Wednesday.​

​

“It’s an honest appraisal of where we stand,” he said. “Everyone is pretty thrilled.”​

​

Los Angeles International Airport is expecting around 200,000 passengers a day, about 40 percent more from Memorial Day weekend last year. “We’re not back to normal here,” said Heath Montgomery, an airport spokesman, adding that passenger volume was still down about 25 percent from 2019.​

​

So, "approaching" pre-pandemic number is not the same as being at or surpassing. No extra surge has been seen so far in any data that I could find.

If anyone can find data on what's actually happening now compared to pre-pandemic times (and not just last year), I welcome seeing those. For it seems indeed that vacationing is making a comeback, but not in any sort of extraordinary vengeful rate.

I can see, after my two recents trips to WDW way more than normal. I think (as a DVC Member) many haven't used their points, especially in 2020, and since points rolled over and can only roll over 1 year, many have excess points and are using them. plus with all the stimulus checks and the child care credit advances, many used that money towards vacationing, since many see it as "found money". also, many vacationing because they feel they needed to getaway after the many restrictions placed, lockdown, etc. Speaking for myself, we cancelled two vacations in 2020, basically because I refused to wear masks outdoors in Florida (mainly. WDW) and the second we cancelled because my daughter was exposed to covid and we cancelled. so now we have a huge amount of points and bought more, so, we are traveling a little more. now that the restrictions, especially optional mask wearing, have been mostly lifted, it is more enjoyable for many to travel.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I can see, after my two recents trips to WDW way more than normal. I think (as a DVC Member) many haven't used their points, especially in 2020, and since points rolled over and can only roll over 1 year, many have excess points and are using them. plus with all the stimulus checks and the child care credit advances, many used that money towards vacationing, since many see it as "found money". also, many vacationing because they feel they needed to getaway after the many restrictions placed, lockdown, etc. Speaking for myself, we cancelled two vacations in 2020, basically because I refused to wear masks outdoors in Florida (mainly. WDW) and the second we cancelled because my daughter was exposed to covid and we cancelled. so now we have a huge amount of points and bought more, so, we are traveling a little more. now that the restrictions, especially optional mask wearing, have been mostly lifted, it is more enjoyable for many to travel.

Thanks, but this is just anecdotal. It doesn't answer the topic of this thread of whether your experience is true for enough people that we can say for sure that there's more traveling now than before the pandemic such that we can declare we're in a time of "revenge traveling."

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I can see, after my two recents trips to WDW way more than normal. I think (as a DVC Member) many haven't used their points, especially in 2020, and since points rolled over and can only roll over 1 year, many have excess points and are using them. plus with all the stimulus checks and the child care credit advances, many used that money towards vacationing, since many see it as "found money". also, many vacationing because they feel they needed to getaway after the many restrictions placed, lockdown, etc. Speaking for myself, we cancelled two vacations in 2020, basically because I refused to wear masks outdoors in Florida (mainly. WDW) and the second we cancelled because my daughter was exposed to covid and we cancelled. so now we have a huge amount of points and bought more, so, we are traveling a little more. now that the restrictions, especially optional mask wearing, have been mostly lifted, it is more enjoyable for many to travel.

DVC travel is locked in…that’s why they sold it to you

 

[Jrb1979]

Thanks, but this is just anecdotal. It doesn't answer the topic of this thread of whether your experience is true for enough people that we can say for sure that there's more traveling now than before the pandemic such that we can declare we're in a time of "revenge traveling."

You probably won't get an honest answer for a few years. Anecdotal evidence is the best you can do right now. The other thing is if a recession hits then people will say it's due to that why travel is down.

I have a question for you then. Why do you think a lot of regional parks are busier then they have ever been this summer.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What's wrong with tiny home neighborhoods? Some tiny homes I've seen are awesome. They're easier to maintain, take up less land, and are more affordable than bigger homes. Imagine living in a nice space in a nice location with no mortgage. Talk about a dream come true!

Tiny houses are a much better idea - in truth - than anything built but a commercial developer since the gipper told everyone they’d be rich.

 

[Tha Realest]

What's wrong with tiny home neighborhoods? Some tiny homes I've seen are awesome. They're easier to maintain, take up less land, and are more affordable than bigger homes. Imagine living in a nice space in a nice location with no mortgage. Talk about a dream come true!

We have three children so that is unrealistic for this stage of my life. That prospect becomes very appealing for - God willing - we're still around 20 years from now

 

[Beacon Joe]

It seems like an odd term. Exacting revenge upon what, or whom?

The only thing approaching "revenge" in this context, IMO, would be people who took their leisure money to open countries, open states, and open establishments in 2020 and 2021 and stopped spending money in places that shut them out.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It seems like an odd term. Exacting revenge upon what, or whom?

The only thing approaching "revenge" in this context, IMO, would be people who took their leisure money to open countries, open states, and open establishments in 2020 and 2021 and stopped spending money in places that shut them out.

I think the term is meant to be “ironic”

Like “how dare you make me stay at home?!?”

Only it wasn’t anyone’s “doling” and wasn’t viewed in the proper context. I sadly know many who still claim great offense

 

[MisterPenguin]

You probably won't get an honest answer for a few years. Anecdotal evidence is the best you can do right now. The other thing is if a recession hits then people will say it's due to that why travel is down.

I have a question for you then. Why do you think a lot of regional parks are busier then they have ever been this summer.

What do you mean we won't get an honest answer? There's already been data published in this thread showing that it is likely that we are not having any sort of rebound of travel.

And there's already been anecdotal evidence of Revenge travel all over the forums. That's why this thread was created to just have actual data to know if it's true or not.

If there is no data at this time, then there is no data. Then there should hardly be any posts at all in this thread. But posting anecdotal experiences is not the same as data.

You're welcome to create your own thread entitled "Revenge travel is real post your experience!"

 

[MisterPenguin]

It seems like an odd term. Exacting revenge upon what, or whom?

The only thing approaching "revenge" in this context, IMO, would be people who took their leisure money to open countries, open states, and open establishments in 2020 and 2021 and stopped spending money in places that shut them out.

In the first post of this thread I acknowledged that everybody thinks the term is dumb.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Tiny houses are a much better idea - in truth - than anything built but a commercial developer since the gipper told everyone they’d be rich.

I chuckle at the tiny home concept because they are just exaggerated examples of what many of us already grew up in.

In the 1950s the average US home size was 1000 sq ft, in the 70s it was 1500, in the 90s 2000, now the average size is over 2600 sq ft, all while family sizes have decreased.

My “modest” 1900 sq ft home today would have been a mansion in the 70s compared to my childhood home.

 

[MisterPenguin]

What real estate agents are doing or not doing, what the housing market is or is not, or the establishment of tiny houses, they are all not data regarding whether or not there is Revenge travel.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I chuckle at the tiny home concept because they are just exaggerated examples of what many of us already grew up in.

In the 1950s the average US home size was 1000 sq ft, in the 70s it was 1500, in the 90s 2000, now the average size is over 2600 sq ft, all while family sizes have decreased.

My “modest” 1900 sq ft home today would have been a mansion in the 70s compared to my childhood home.

Right…but you gotta relabel it or the kids won’t think it’s cool…

And then of course…if they catch on they’ll be commercialized and completely exploited

 

[Patcheslee]

Right…but you gotta relabel it or the kids won’t think it’s cool…

And then of course…if they catch on they’ll be commercialized and completely exploited

But I tried to talk my 13yo into have a tiny home in our backyard she could do her sleepovers in, she didn't like the idea lol

 

[dreday3]

What real estate agents are doing or not doing, what the housing market is or is not, or the establishment of tiny houses, they are all not data regarding whether or not there is Revenge travel.

Right.

But what's wrong with "renters"?