No the physical line does not end up being MUCH longer because it isn't standing still anymore. Now people are being pulled from the front constantly. And also no, you don't have ALL the people who went through the flastpass/LL queue because there are tons of people who won't wait 45 minutes for an attraction but will take advantage of a line skip option to ride it.
Also, if you think getting rid of FP/LL would only reduce a 90 minute ride by 10 minutes on average there is no point in debating because we're miles apart on this.
Estimates have the reserved space for FP being well over 50% of capacity for most attractions. (look at TSMM and it's 2:1 build for an example). Some very basic math gives you an idea of how quickly those wait times can balloon in standby as a result of that. You have to severely limit the people in the line cut for it to not significantly impact the standby wait and that's not how Disney handled it.
You're missing the point. If there's no more line skip, then you either have to wait 45 minutes or you don't go. The number of people moving through a queue doesn't change that much. The actual number of people in line gets longer.
If there's 1000 people in a standby line with line skip, and 1000 people who go through line skip while those 1000 people are waiting on average, then you take away line skip and those 1000 people have to go
somewhere. Now, a portion of them won't wait in line - maybe 20%. But now you have a standby line with 1800 people in it, not 1000. So it ends up being a physically longer line. But, since they aren't stopping to allow line skippers through, it moves physically faster. You're moving more often. But since there's now more people in that single line, the actual wait time doesn't change all that much. Maybe 10-20% shorter (some lines actually get longer during peak times, because line skip helps distribute people to less crowded times like later in the day).
And this isn't my opinion, this is backed by the data of pre-LL vs post-LL. Wait times climbed, but not by a whole lot. Take July 14, 2021, which was a CL-5 day, with no line skip: Average
standby wait time for a number of attractions:
- HM: 56 minutes
- SM: 66 minutes
- PotC: 54 minutes
- Splash: 66 minutes
- BtmR: 42 minutes
Now lets take another CL5 day from this year, July 8, 2022, with Genie+, same rides:
- HM: 45 minutes
- SM: 54 minutes
- PotC: 40 minutes
- Splash: 66 minutes
- BtmR: 35 minutes
Roughly equivalent. In fact, the Genie+ times were actually
better than the non-Genie+ times. FP+ did inflate wait times more - a similar day in 2019 (7/6/2019)
- HM: 51
- SM: 81
- PotC: 38
- Splash: 75
- BtmR: 40
But at the end of the day, wait times for most attractions were close, even with FP+. With the exception of FP+ and Space Mountain, the average wait time always fell within 10-15 minutes of each other, and were sometimes even higher
without line skip.