News Reflections – A Disney Lakeside Lodge (Project 89 - Development near Fort Wilderness)

Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Disstevefan1 said:
The trailers, Disneyland Hotel and GF conversion are relatively new.
Aulani I can understand, not near a park.
I am not in favor with turning everything into DVC, but I still think they will sell, not to me, but they will sell in my opinion.
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They are overextended…but that won’t stop conversions. Really don’t know who’s buying?

For years it was fueled by original wave buying additional contracts…but I haven’t heard of really many doing that now for awhile.
 
Disstevefan1

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
Disstevefan1 said:
The trailers, Disneyland Hotel and GF conversion are relatively new.
Aulani I can understand, not near a park.
I am not in favor with turning everything into DVC, but I still think they will sell, not to me, but they will sell in my opinion.
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FIFme ;) DVC will sell.
There are many, many more new folks who don't know any better.
 
Disstevefan1

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
…declining attendance to the contrary
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If you mean by attendance, lower room bookings, you may have a case, or we can rationalize folks are buying DVSs instead of the old fashion way of booking rooms.

If you are talking about park attendance, I think park attendance as a measure of success is no longer valid. Per capita spending IS the measuring stick of success in my opinion.
 
BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
When did riviera go for sale? Like 2018??

That’s a trend too…albeit one with an asterisk on it
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2019. It’s a huge resort. Between Bay Lake Tower and Old Key West. When you normalize for the number of points it has to sell, it’s actually on a similar timeframe (minus the asterisk). Even with the asterisks it’s still ‘good’.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Disstevefan1 said:
If you mean by attendance, lower room bookings, you may have a case, or we can rationalize folks are buying DVSs instead of the old fashion way of booking rooms.

If you are talking about park attendance, I think park attendance as a measure of success is no longer valid. Per capita spending IS the measuring stick of success in my opinion.
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Per capita spending isn’t indicative timeshare sales

You need more people in the pool…not less

Also per capita spending is just for disposable income on given day…

Charging people 10% more for tickets and $2 more for chicken fingers they suffer but DO NOT WANT TO PAY…is not indicative of willingness to pay $50,000 for a timeshare.

You’re applying an equation to a different type of math problem

Using geometry on an algebra problem
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
BrianLo said:
2019. It’s a huge resort. Between Bay Lake Tower and Old Key West. When you normalize for the number of points it has to sell, it’s actually on a similar timeframe (minus the asterisk). Even with the asterisks it’s still ‘good’.
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I’d actually say it’s better than I thought. It will sell out…but slow with poly as GF did.

I think that crappy Star Wars land might be a big driver there…the first positive thing it’s done 😂
 
pdude81

pdude81

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
The cost is minimal…which is the point and why they never should have tried it.

And remember they can’t just sell declared timeshare points as much as they want…it’s only to a certain amount.

What they could do is pool the plug on the declaration and sell half a rack cabins to the campground.

That would get UGLY fast
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Declared inventory they can't sell until 60 days out, but people will use points from wherever to stay here. And if they don't use their points at the home resort or elsewhere, they offer up those rooms for cash bookings. But if the FW DVC doesn't really sell and they don't declare new inventory very quickly, they get money now for those bookings and still try to "sell" the same points with fewer years for more money later on. They can eat 5 or 6 years worth of use off of these and then "discount" by 30% like we're shopping for DVC at Kohl's.

I don't expect all these cabins declared for a very long time. Aulani like. But we'll see.
 
Disstevefan1

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
Per capita spending isn’t indicative timeshare sales

You need more people in the pool…not less

Also per capita spending is just for disposable income on given day…

Charging people 10% more for tickets and $2 more for chicken fingers they suffer but DO NOT WANT TO PAY…is not indicative of willingness to pay $50,000 for a timeshare.

You’re applying an equation to a different type of math problem

Using geometry on an algebra problem
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You spoke of attendance as it applies to timeshare sales, I was just trying to rationalize what that means.
 
Disstevefan1

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
Decline in demand would not be “insulated” from timeshare sales
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Understood. Let me ask. Remember before the pandemic when the APs had actual value and there were no blackouts and no PPRs and you could literally drop into a park on a whim?

Fast forward to today. We know how devalued and restricted the APs are.

Did what they did to the APs significantly effect attendance numbers that it could be seen as a "decline in demand" and not simply less bodies in the parks?

I am again questioning the value in counting of bodies. I agree, in the old days, more bodies in the park automatically meant more money made and that is why it was used as THE measuring stick. I am not so sure now. Just my opinion.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Disstevefan1 said:
Understood. Let me ask. Remember before the pandemic when the APs had actual value and there were no blackouts and no PPRs and you could literally drop into a park on a whim?

Fast forward to today. We know how devalued and restricted the APs are.

Did what they did to the APs significantly effect attendance numbers that it could be seen as a "decline in demand" and not simply less bodies in the parks?

I am again questioning the value in counting of bodies. I agree, in the old days, more bodies in the park automatically meant more money made and that is why it was used as THE measuring stick. I am not so sure now. Just my opinion.
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It’s possible?…len would have a better opinion.

My thought is what the complete mishandling of APs (more on that later) has done is reduce the frequency of repeat visits by their core clientele in more damaging fashion

I know DVCs that now burn points on room sizes they don’t need for less trips.

Or go for 5-7 days and get 2 or 3 days of tickets.

Fools like Stupor will say “good for Disney…higher revenue each day”

False. No, no, no, no, no and no.

The point of DVC was not to make bank at the gate. It’s to get you into crystal palace or your 4th $11 beer at hurling suitcase or at world of Disney.

I worked with a dvc GM. Period.

So a decline in any attendance has shockwaves. Include dvc sales and frequency of visits.

But the real issue with APs…one of my biggest pet peeves in a volume of them…is that they need them RIGHT NOW and the sales are bad.
And why? Because they planned it this way long ago. They said internally and to TAs, etc as far back as 10 years ago that the discounting was going away.
And why? The brand loyalty made them irrelevant.

Ahhh…smart business, right?
The problem is the MINUTE demand went down at all that theory was done. Over. FAIL.

And as we see…if you go too far…you don’t always get a walk back.

My estimate is to reverse the attendance trend they will need 40% discounts on most things and maybe as much as 60%.

They are not doing well here. But let’s gloss it - shall we?
 
C

Chip Chipperson

Well-Known Member
BrianLo said:
We’ve already been through this. VGF was outsold by RIV when price was not a factor. Poly would need to sustain 2-1 sales for years. It’s not happening.

RIV isn’t generally considered to have a bad location. It’s not prime, but the sky liner makes it on the second tier.

Next conspiracy?
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I love the location of Riviera. Just stayed there for the first time and the Skyliner makes it incredibly easy to get to Epcot and DHS - especiallygreat for Epcot festivals and the deluxe evening hours. My wife and I loved it, but agreed that the resale limitations make it a no-buy for us. Not that we'd buy anywhere expecting to sell it, but we're not foolish enough to think there's a 0% chance that we'd ever be in a position where we might need to unload our DVC contracts.
 
Disstevefan1

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
My estimate is to reverse the attendance trend they will need 40% discounts on most things and maybe as much as 60%.
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As a guest and a customer I would love to see this. If it was to happen, it would be for a short time just to pump the attendance numbers to give the appearance of better attendance, I am guessing.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Disstevefan1 said:
As a guest and a customer I would love to see this. If it was to happen, it would be for a short time just to pump the attendance numbers to give the appearance of better attendance, I am guessing.
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They can’t sell it to Wall Street…which is why I’ve warned for years not to go there…

It’s their biggest segment by far…they can’t give back on it. And the margins are getting there
 

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