News Reflections – A Disney Lakeside Lodge (Project 89 - Development near Fort Wilderness)

[deeevo]

How far away are the new DVC cabins and the reflections site? I wonder if they will add amenities then to drum up some sales for the Cabins as these are failing bad

A golf cart ride away.

 

[MR.Dis]

The Cabins debacle (and by extension the "Reflectionization" of the campground) shows how tone deaf current WDW management is and underscores the complete lack of understanding they have in their own products and customer base.

If sales are indeed poor, a sizable portion of your traditional DVC customers, who prefer amenities and convenience, aren't buying in because of the perceived lack of amenities and convenience.

And a large portion of Ft. Wilderness "cabin" fans (like our family who loved the property and made multiple week-long visits each year for more than a decade), are completely turned off because the entire theme and much of what we loved about the place has been stripped away.

I'm not sure the first subset of guests could be won over by this project no matter what direction it took.

But WDW had a golden opportunity to convert a ton of cabin fans to happy DVC customers if they had just kept the theme of the cabins and campground intact.

Heck, I've always been super wary of DVC but would have signed up in a heartbeat if they'd just updated the existing cabins (or replaced them with newer versions of the same).

Ft. Wilderness isn't for everyone, but those who do like it are pretty passionate about it.

Maybe Disney has data to back up its decision, but building something that manages to alienate both sets of potential customers is certainly a head-scratcher.

I agree to some of this. In my opinion the whole purpose of the Cabins was to attract pet owners to buy in. We will see but right now it appears they over estimated the draw for a pet friendly DVC.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Probably a good idea to sell what they got first…trailers don’t sell themselves

 

[HauntedPirate]

"I liked it better as an abandoned water park" - John Hench. Maybe.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I have no idea how TWDC moves around/crunches it financials, but the original “cabins” manufactured homes very well themed to look like cabins I presume needed to be refurbished based on some Disney calculations.

Maybe the accountants said, “Since we need to refurbish these anyway, let’s replace them with DVCs the money spent is against Disney’s DCV company which makes truckloads of money and could possibly bring down that income for tax purposes, and these are now DVCs which Disney loves; huge buy in, and maintenance fees for 50 years or so, and if a non DVCer wants to stay there, the nightly rates are huge, Disney wins again.

 

[nickys]

I have no idea how TWDC moves around/crunches it financials, but the original “cabins” manufactured homes very will themed to look like cabins I presume needed to be refurbished based on some Disney calculations.

Maybe the accountants said, “Since we need to refurbish these anyway, let’s replace them with DVCs the money spent is against Disney’s DCV company which makes truckloads of money and could possibly bring down that income for tax purposes, and these are now DVCs which Disney loves; huge buy in, and maintenance fees for 50 years or so, and if a non DVCer wants to stay there, the nightly rates are huge, Disney wins again.

That’s exactly what happened. The high m/fs are to pay for the replacement in 25 years or so. But if no one buys then that plan goes out the window.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Can I at least drive the Disney trailer to Universal for day trips? Not needing a rental car would sweeten the deal a bit.

 

[BrianLo]

They always want to have a resort in active sales. The Poly is likely to sell out much quicker than Riviera, since it’s adding the larger villas to the existing association. If sales are stagnating at Riviera and the Cabins, they’ll want something else to be selling. That’s how they think.

RIV should definitely sell out first unless some weird shenanigans go down. There’s only about 2.2 million points left as of this time, with Poly generally expected to have 4+ million. RIV might even sell out by 2026.

Poly has to compete against its own resale after the initial opening sales rush. Plus I feels like there is always some disappointing shoe that drops that we cannot foresee yet.

All of which is to say I agree - their eye is going to be on what’s next in a couple years.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That’s exactly what happened. The high m/fs are to pay for the replacement in 25 years or so. But if no one buys then that plan goes out the window.

They may have gone too far with this one…

I don’t reject the concept here outright

They have sold…some…of riviera and I detested that concept…

But the trailer park is maybe over the last bridge…

Trying to “leach” off the food at the adjacent properties…which I hate but they keep doing. Taking out Crocketts/trails end was a bad move…frankly the artists point conversion and that weird hybrid place on the water is too.

No amenities…which they have desperately wanted to try but never had the audacity to do until now.

A “good” location that isn’t for everyone. Which they knew.

And no comfort level. It’s 98 in the swamp today…
Bet the walk to roaring forks to Fill that mug would feel great, huh?

I think they also repeated a mistake they kinda made at poly. People wanted studios then so they only did studios. Which limited the sales appeal and causes disgruntlement a lot.
So now people want the “bigger than 4” family accommodations…so they do ONLY that.
But this time without trader Sam’s.

Just might be a bit too much?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

RIV should definitely sell out first unless some weird shenanigans go down. There’s only about 2.2 million points left as of this time, with Poly generally expected to have 4+ million. RIV might even sell out by 2026.

Poly has to compete against its own resale after the initial opening sales rush. Plus I feels like there is always some disappointing shoe that drops that we cannot foresee yet.

All of which is to say I agree - their eye is going to be on what’s next in a couple years.

Poly will sell way faster than riviera

Which is why you don’t build ontop of caribbean, charge too much, and put stupid sales limitations on the contract

 

[BrianLo]

Poly will sell way faster than riviera

Which is why you don’t build ontop of caribbean, charge too much, and put stupid sales limitations on the contract

Sell faster, or sell out faster?

In order to do the latter it would have to become the best selling DVC resort ever. Or for RIV to grind to a sudden halt. More so than it did with VGF.

 

[pdude81]

It almost seems like the FW DVC is offered as sacrifice to sell all the points at the new Polynesian building quickly. Because if they never sell these, they can still be offered each night for cash and make money anyway. The DVC cost/benefit ratio seems rather ugly for these cabins. I'll gladly stay there on my own points, but no way I'm going to lock myself into a long term contract on a property that doesn't have it's own quick service, swimming pool, or bus stop.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Sell faster, or sell out faster?

In order to do the latter it would have to become the best selling DVC resort ever. Or for RIV to grind to a sudden halt. More so than it did with VGF.

What happens when they open a desired location over a bad (debatable) one is that the sales flatline for the latter.

Saratoga sales ground to halt when bay lake and DAKL went up…which is why I bought too early

They’re already discounting and price haggling now - quietly - they’re gonna have to kick it into high gear for riviera and the cabins

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It almost seems like the FW DVC is offered as sacrifice to sell all the points at the new Polynesian building quickly. Because if they never sell these, they can still be offered each night for cash and make money anyway. The DVC cost/benefit ratio seems rather ugly for these cabins. I'll gladly stay there on my own points, but no way I'm going to lock myself into a long term contract on a property that doesn't have it's own quick service, swimming pool, or bus stop.

The cost is minimal…which is the point and why they never should have tried it.

And remember they can’t just sell declared timeshare points as much as they want…it’s only to a certain amount.

What they could do is pool the plug on the declaration and sell half a rack cabins to the campground.

That would get UGLY fast

 

[Disstevefan1]

I do not know about this stuff. RESALES ASIDE. Are there any DVC locations that are still not sold out, meaning there are still units that Disney has not sold the initial contract?

 

[BrianLo]

What happens when they open a desired location over a bad (debatable) one is that the sales flatline for the latter.

Saratoga sales ground to halt when bay lake and DAKL went up…which is why I bought too early

They’re already discounting and price haggling now - quietly - they’re gonna have to kick it into high gear for riviera and the cabins

We’ve already been through this. VGF was outsold by RIV when price was not a factor. Poly would need to sustain 2-1 sales for years. It’s not happening.

RIV isn’t generally considered to have a bad location. It’s not prime, but the sky liner makes it on the second tier.

Next conspiracy?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I do not know about this stuff. RESALES ASIDE. Are there any DVC locations that are still not sold out, meaning there are still units that Disney has not been sold initially?

Currently the trailers…riviera…Disneyland Hotel…Aulani and Grand Floridian conversion

It took them about 15 years to sell vero and Hilton head and Saratoga…but Saratoga is huge
Boardwalk was long too.

Dvc was not popular - as with most timeshares - at first. Took awhile. Then it kicked up.

My in-laws bought Hilton head in 98 at old key west…for $27 a point and had like 8 annual passes thrown at them.

Now they want $180 for Barbados at Caribbean and no free ice cream

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We’ve already been through this. VGF was outsold by RIV when price was not a factor. Poly would need to sustain 2-1 sales for years. It’s not happening.

RIV isn’t generally considered to have a bad location. It’s not prime, but the sky liner makes it on the second tier.

Next conspiracy?

It’s not a conspiracy, Jack

Riviera is going long now…and price very much IS a factor.

I don’t follow much…but sales are not stellar, incentives are getting more desperate and the resell markets are flooded.

When something tells you what they are - believe them.

And officially…the skyliner is good. But not much else. That place was obviously designed to cater to what I call “New Jersey vanity” in a concrete shell. But they didn’t have much else to sell at first

 

[BrianLo]

I don’t follow much…

I think that’s the problem. Your information you are working on is not very up to date.

Sales last year were stellar, a ten year high. As I’ve pointed out to you before. CFW is where you need to direct your ire. That resort is a sales disaster. Though that’s Disneys problem, fortunately. They made the points charts too low. Which is good for membership (non owners) at least.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Currently the trailers…riviera…Disneyland Hotel…Aulani and Grand Floridian conversion

The trailers, Disneyland Hotel and GF conversion are relatively new.
Aulani I can understand, not near a park.
I am not in favor with turning everything into DVC, but I still think they will sell, not to me, but they will sell in my opinion.