News Reedy Creek Improvement District and the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District

[castlecake2.0]

They could have done this without a public announcement, but didn’t. It’s all very strategic. Jeff’s follow up announcement also very purposeful. Florida is “finding out”.

ETA I’m not saying that I’m not entirely convinced this was only because of the ongoing feud. I believe many factors were involved, but this was the final push they needed and the way they’re spinning it is

 

[GCTales]

Blaming DeSantis is the easiest narrative.

Disney and DeSantis are feuding. Disney cancels plans to move jobs to Florida. It’s a simple narrative that doesn’t require much background to write a story about.

It’s also the sexiest narrative.

This is Disney showing its expertise in working the media with their vague "changing business conditions" statement. This is the right play. They need to undercut DeSantis’ popularity. Suggesting DeSantis is to blame without explicitly stating it weakens DeSantis without being over-the-top. The media will fill in the blanks.

Disney continues to play this coolly while DeSantis plays this clumsily.

They already have. Today show had a 5 min segment on the lawsuit and a good 2 minutes were about Lake Nona cancellation... they drew a direct correlation to the legal fight and made thir opinion this was a direct result very clear.

CNN had a similar clip. I would be shocked it MSNBC didn`t have something - all indirectly suggesting DeSantis is to blame.

 

[pluto77]

Iger's choice:

1. Announce the reversal of the Lake Nona project on a late Friday afternoon to get the least amount of negative press.​

​

2. Wait until one is being attacked by a local government and announce the reversal of a project and let people draw their own conclusions.​

He also just asked literally a week ago “Does the state want us to invest more, employ more people and pay more taxes or not?" And now jobs are being cancelled in Florida and an investment is being lost. I know one doesn’t have to do with the other, but it’s the narrative that can be sold.

I 100% believe that Lake Nona was already going to be cancelled. Perhaps the feud was what pushed the decision over the edge, but now there’s a narrative for the press to sell and Disney (in the public eye) looks like they have even more of an upper hand over the state. Disney is not dumb. They’ve been well played this entire time, including by keeping mostly quiet for months while letting DeSantis dig himself deeper into a hole. I think DeSantis bit off more than he can chew with this one.

 

[mkt]

Today's new filings in CFTOD v Disney. Just 3 motions from Disney attorneys to appear Pro Hac Vice. No new filings in Disney v DeSantis.

 

[Touchdown]

3 more days…

 

[Cliff]

They already have. Today show had a 5 min segment on the lawsuit and a good 2 minutes were about Lake Nona cancellation... they drew a direct correlation to the legal fight and made thir opinion this was a direct result very clear.

CNN had a similar clip. I would be shocked it MSNBC didn`t have something - all indirectly suggesting DeSantis is to blame.

If the parental rights bill had never existed and DeSantis quit as governor two years ago. Does anybody STILL believe that Disney's Lake Nona buidout would be moving forward today? Anybody?

Heck no! Disney has huge economic problems right now is is undergoing massive cost cutting measurs today. Disney does not have the money to spend on this UNpopular facility. Staff in California have....for a long time....been very vocal about NOT wanting to move to Florida.

Lake Nona was a very UNpopular Bob Chapek era idea that again....nobody liked in Califormia. Even people in Lake Nona didnt want this. Bob Iger took this opertunity to kill an UNpopular and EXPENSIVE project...and blame it on DeSantis.

Nice one Bob.....sneaky but very clever!

 

[Chi84]

Today's new filings in CFTOD v Disney. Just 3 motions from Disney attorneys to appear Pro Hac Vice. No new filings in Disney v DeSantis.

Thanks for doing this! It's incredibly helpful.

 

[Brian]

I 100% believe that Lake Nona was already going to be cancelled. Perhaps the feud was what pushed the decision over the edge,

Iger implied in November 2022 that he was considering canceling it, so you're not too far off track.

 

[GoofGoof]

The Feud might have been the breaking point.

However, for a CEO who emphasizes the importance of creatives, forcing 2000 to move to FL was a bad look.

Perhaps more importantly, the company is looking to cut costs immediately. Sinking a billion into this did not make sense at this time.

All three played a factor. Which one was the most important depends on how you want to spin this.

I think this is all true. The cost cutting aspect really seems short sighted if that was the driver. I guess for next few years cash flow but the project was around $1B with $600M of tax credits so total cash out the door net of tax savings is $400M which is a drop in the bucket for DIS. On net income the $1B is mostly capitalized and except for the land gets depreciated over 30+ years so roughly $32M a year in depreciation expense. Again, a drop in the bucket.

I think the bigger issue is forcing 2,000 creatives to move to FL. That went over poorly upon announcing the move and the recent political fall out has made the situation much worse. It’s not necessarily the direct conflict over RCID.

 

[Cliff]

Iger implied in November 2022 that he was considering canceling it, so you're not too far off track.

Eggggzactly!

Lake Nona was VERY unpopular and too costly...LONG...before DeSantis was ever an issue for them.

Disney is neck deep in cost reduction actions today. Ending Lake Nona saved them big money that they need in OTHER areas of the company...but it also made many California staff say: "Thank God....whew!!!"

DeSantis did NOT cause Disney to cancel Lake Nona.

 

[mikejs78]

Heck no! Disney has huge economic problems right now is is undergoing massive cost cutting measurs today. Disney does not have the money

too costly

aved them big money

Eh, not really. Disney is actually in a fairly decent financial position with their latest round of cuts, this really wasn't needed, especially since it would have saved them a bunch over the long haul. The project would have paid for itself and wasn't that expensive given Disney's cash position, unless they want to use that money elsewhere.

UNpopular facility. Staff in California have....for a long time....been very vocal about NOT wanting to move to Florida.

This is actually more why I think this happened - not because of cost savings, but talent drain.

 

[LAKid53]

not to wade into this, but given the trajectory of things I’m not so sure I’d rely on those tax credits being delivered as promised

I'm sure that entered into Disney's calculation, especially after the governor sabotaged the agreement Disney was working on with the Legislature.

 

[GoofGoof]

not to wade into this, but given the trajectory of things I’m not so sure I’d rely on those tax credits being delivered as promised

That would have been harder to pull off than the RCID changes, but it could have been a factor too. Those jobs were never going to FL without the tax credits so if they doubted they were going to get them because of conflict with DeSantis that could have been a major factor too.

 

[GrumpyFan]

If the parental rights bill had never existed and DeSantis quit as governor two years ago. Does anybody STILL believe that Disney's Lake Nona buidout would be moving forward today? Anybody?

Heck no! Disney has huge economic problems right now is is undergoing massive cost cutting measurs today. Disney does not have the money to spend on this UNpopular facility. Staff in California have....for a long time....been very vocal about NOT wanting to move to Florida.

Lake Nona was a very UNpopular Bob Chapek era idea that again....nobody liked in Califormia. Even people in Lake Nona didnt want this. Bob Iger took this opertunity to kill an UNpopular and EXPENSIVE project...and blame it on DeSantis.

Nice one Bob.....sneaky but very clever!

I do. From a business financial perspective, it makes sense. Moving offices is never a popular thing for any company, but that doesn't mean it's not still in their best interest. California is expensive and has traditionally become more and more difficult to do business there, which is why many businesses and people have moved out from there.
I think it's only a matter of time until the next Disney CEO re-considers a move like this for some of the California divisions of the company.

 

[Fordlover]

If the parental rights bill had never existed and DeSantis quit as governor two years ago. Does anybody STILL believe that Disney's Lake Nona buidout would be moving forward today? Anybody?

Heck no! Disney has huge economic problems right now is is undergoing massive cost cutting measurs today. Disney does not have the money to spend on this UNpopular facility. Staff in California have....for a long time....been very vocal about NOT wanting to move to Florida.

Lake Nona was a very UNpopular Bob Chapek era idea that again....nobody liked in Califormia. Even people in Lake Nona didnt want this. Bob Iger took this opportunity to kill an UNpopular and EXPENSIVE project...and blame it on DeSantis.

Nice one Bob.....sneaky but very clever!

You hit the nail on the head. Iger is rolling back all sorts of costs anywhere he can. Besides, if you are laying off 5K+ white collar employees, no sane person would encourage building MORE office space! Disney is in major capital preservation mode.

 

[Cliff]

I would argue that moving staff to Florida and building the Lake Nona campus would be extremely expensive. What does Disney get in return from spending that money and UPSETTING it's staff? I suspect that same money will be better spent on it's multiple efforts on defending multiple lawsuits against them from the state of Florida and investors and staff. I suspect that Lake Nona money WILL be needed to buy Comcast's portion of Hulu too. How many BILLIONS will that ALONE cost Disney???

Lastly,...I'd rather that Disney use that Lake Nona money to keep the California staff IN California where they belong and maybe use it to fill in the gigantic construction crater that has PLAGUED Epcot for what?....4-5 years? Disney didn't have the money to even do THAT in a timely manner?? They allowed Epcot to suffer that for YEARS on end.

I'd rather that Disney use that IMAGINARY Lake Nona money to hire Universal project managers to spruce up Epcot for them. Universal will build an entire gigantic theme park in about the same time that it took Disney to build a Moana walk through garden attraction. Seriously? The parks are suffering and Disney doesn't seem to have the money to get them up to speed....but they have money for Lake Nona?

Lake Nona?....yeah, they don't need Disney there. Lake Nona is already one of the fastest growing "upscale" areas in central Florida and Disney leaving it will NOT change that growth speed very much. Many locals don't want Disney there anyway!

But yeah, I blame multiple Disney lawsuits, stock price decline, large staff layoffs, Lucasfilm, Pixar, Marvel studio decline and D+ subscriber decline all on Ron DeSantis folks. This is NOT Disney's fault,...it's the governors fault. Yep,....so easy!

 

[Vacationeer]

Page 999 - There’s always room for one more lol

Anyway… What the cancellation of Lake Nona shows is that big projects or investments are never too big to get yanked.

It’s makes the uncertainty of $17b/13k jobs over the next decade stronger. Bob asked if Floridians care about that tax revenue. Lake Nona made that idea less abstract.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think the bottom line on the Lake Nona cancellation is that DeSantis’s battle with Disney had at least some impact on the decision. Nobody knows how much that drove it but it had an impact. There were other factors too. I think we all mostly agree on that except for a few partisan DeSantis supporters desperate to deflect any blame from him.

Whether DeSantis was the cause or not is irrelevant because that’s the story that’s out there. People read headlines not details with context. The public perception is DeSantis’s feud with Disney cost the state a billion in construction spending and $2.4B in recurring salaries over the next decade. Anyone who views the economy as their top issue is not going to look favorably at that result.

 

[scottieRoss]

I would argue that moving staff to Florida and building the Lake Nona campus would be extremely expensive. What does Disney get in return from spending that money and UPSETTING it's staff? I suspect that same money will be better spent on it's multiple efforts on defending multiple lawsuits against them from the state of Florida and investors and staff. I suspect that Lake Nona money WILL be needed to buy Comcast's portion of Hulu too. How many BILLIONS will that ALONE cost Disney???

Lastly,...I'd rather that Disney use that Lake Nona money to keep the California staff IN California where they belong and maybe use it to fill in the gigantic construction crater that has PLAGUED Epcot for what?....4-5 years? Disney didn't have the money to even do THAT in a timely manner?? They allowed Epcot to suffer that for YEARS on end.

I'd rather that Disney use that IMAGINARY Lake Nona money to hire Universal project managers to spruce up Epcot for them. Universal will build an entire gigantic theme park in about the same time that it took Disney to build a Moana walk through garden attraction. Seriously? The parks are suffering and Disney doesn't seem to have the money to get them up to speed....but they have money for Lake Nona?

Lake Nona?....yeah, they don't need Disney there. Lake Nona is already one of the fastest growing "upscale" areas in central Florida and Disney leaving it will NOT change that growth speed very much. Many locals don't want Disney there anyway!

But yeah, I blame multiple Disney lawsuits, stock price decline, large staff layoffs, Lucasfilm, Pixar, Marvel studio decline and D+ subscriber decline all on Ron DeSantis folks. This is NOT Disney's fault,...it's the governors fault. Yep,....so easy!

The only statement of fact in the entire post is the first sentence. Once we get past that it delves into pure conjecture that is not based in the real world.
As for finances, Disney has 10.4 Billion Dollars in cash on hand.
Finally, as for Epcot, I think you are a little confused. The crater is almost finished, Moana was only started about a year ago, and the new Festival Center is finishing up. Landscaping has begun in the 'Crater' and Universal Epic Universe will have taken 5 years.

 

[GoofGoof]

The only statement of fact in the entire post is the first sentence. Once we get past that it delves into pure conjecture that is not based in the real world.

As far as the cost, the move was always being done to save money not cost more money. They were moving 2,000 jobs to a state with lower wages so long term they could pay less in salary and less in upkeep. The project was going to cost $1B but they were getting $600M in tax credits so net cost of $400M and the P&L impact would be spread over 30+ years so not a huge expense. The plan was always to expand the campus in the future as well so 2,000 could become a lot more jobs and again at a lower cost. If it wasn’t cheaper to move the jobs to FL there would have never been a reason to do it.