If the tax implications were as you contend, why wouldn't Disney have been actively lobbying to eliminate the RCID? Your contention seems to be that Disney is willingly paying for all of their own services that they could have subsidized by the residents of Orange and Osceola counties.
What others seem to miss it that although Disney pays
some tax to Orange County, it’s exempt from most Orange County tax.
NBC News explains this:
State Rep. Spencer Roach, a Republican from Southwest Florida who first raised the issue of ending Disney’s taxing district, said the district has allowed the corporation to avoid as much as $200 million in property taxes that Orange and Osceola counties would otherwise collect. He pointed out that other theme parks in the Orlando area already pay property taxes; only Disney is exempt.
RCID is budgeting
$164M in 2022, which it collects from the district’s businesses (mostly Disney) and a handful of property owners:
Instead of paying RCID, these businesses and residents would pay their taxes
directly to Orange County.
There’s a gap between what Disney currently pays to RCID (i.e. most of the
$164M) and what Orange County potentially could collect (
$200M per the NBC News article). Potentially, Disney could see a tax increase.
Disney controls RCID. Through its selection of RCID Board of Supervisors (for example, the board head, Donald R. Greer, has been there for decades), Disney decides who sits on the board and effectively controls how much is budgeted for roads and services.
Long term, the loss of RCID would mean that Orange County would set the tax rate for Disney (as it does for all businesses within the county). Orange County has to be fair; it can't "screw" Disney. However, the loss of RCID would mean that Disney would no longer control its own tax rate. Presumably, RCID is run more efficiently than Orange County, so Orange County probably will end up charging more in taxes than RCID.
Disney is
not going to eat any potential tax increase. Instead, anyone who vacations at WDW will in the form of higher prices.