News Reedy Creek Improvement District and the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District

[Disstevefan1]

There is nothing extreme about defending LGBTQI rights. This false equivalence has to stop.

In my opinion, this is not about defending LGBTQI rights.

Florida passed HB 1557.

Initially, TWDC wanted to stay out of it and focus on its business and customers.

Then TWDC was pressured into saying they were going to fight HB 1557 and use its resources to overturn HB 1557.

Then the governor of Florida got angry over this and targeted TWDC and in a matter of hours, wrote, voted, signed and passed a bill to dissolve RCID.

This all could have been part of a long term plan of the governor's path to the White House. Time will tell.

As a side effect, It appears LGBTQI folks and Disney got a win here.

The big losers here are the Florida taxpayers.

Could guests to WDW be negatively affected by the loss of RCID? Only time will tell.

 

[rio]

Good to be back on topic.

Here‘s the issue with the Governor’s plan. Disney is already paying a full share of taxes to Orange and Osceola Counties just like any other taxpayer. RCID is a special tax district with Disney as the primary landowner. Disney agreed to the setup with the state when the original district was created. It benefited both sides. Now the plan is to dissolve the district and setup a new district controlled by the Governor that taxes Disney but potentially provides them nothing. Why would Disney or the other landowners agree to do this? Makes no sense. In an extreme example let’s say the majority of your town or even your neighborhood oppose the governor publicly (maybe you all have lawn signs favoring the opponent). Should he have the power to just create a special tax district over your neighborhood where he adds a tax you have to pay that’s in addition to the real estate taxes you already pay and then he appoints people to oversee the way the money is spent but you and your neighbors (the landowners) have no say. That’s basically what is being suggested here.

I know the goal is to punish Disney and make them pay more but that’s a really dangerous precedent to set.

Is there really any case where Disney wins?

The governor establishes a district that gives him control over Disney - Disney loses, and may have to wind down Disney World when the governor wants to make changes to other Disney business units
RCID is dissolved and the debt goes to the counties- It's Disney's fault that your taxes are going up and you're more in debt while getting less from your taxes
RCID debt is taken by the state- we can't do these things because Disney gave us $1B in debt
Florida taxes Disney explicitly - illegal, but it has to be challenged in court first
Florida raids hotel taxes - also potentially illegal, and hurts tourism investment, which hurts Disney
Disney compromises on RCID changes with Florida- Disney speaking out against a Florida law now allows Florida to change RCID and contracts at will
Nothing happens to Disney World-That won't satisfy Florida/DeSantis's base. But Disney and RCID now have increased legal fees and a lack of certainty around what they can and cannot do or say, and higher prices on future bonds

 

[mmascari]

This is why I really like the open primary plan that places like Alaska have put in place. Both parties can have candidates run in the primary but the top 2 candidates regardless of party face off in the general election. This way it benefits a candidate to be more inclusive and appeal to a broader audience.

Is that combined with some instant run off or is it just the top two with the "most" out of the entire field?

If it's the latter, it's a huge disadvantage to a large field. Since field splitting reduces the number of votes available to someone. I seem to remember a relatively recent CA primary that worked like that. Something where one party had 2 candidates and the other had like 10 (give or take my very failing memory).

Pretend you have 100 voters and let's make is super lopsided too. Say 30 are in the party of 2, and 70 in the party of 10. Everyone votes on party lines and the votes are all completely evenly split. The candidates in the party of 2 each get 15 votes. The candidates in the party of 10 each get 7 votes. The two with the "most" are the two with 15 votes each, more than twice as many as any other candidate. So, the general get's the 2 from the party of 30 and nobody else. Which sounds like a problem.

In the CA one I'm remembering, it wasn't quite that lopsided, but there was a real concern. I think they convinced someone to drop out to avoid splitting it.


Now we're really far from RCID, but at least it's a politically neutral example.

Unless there's some RCID or RCID Replacement voting structure that could fit this pattern?

 

[lazyboy97o]

Is there really any case where Disney wins?

The governor establishes a district that gives him control over Disney - Disney loses, and may have to wind down Disney World when the governor wants to make changes to other Disney business units
RCID is dissolved and the debt goes to the counties- It's Disney's fault that your taxes are going up and you're more in debt while getting less from your taxes
RCID debt is taken by the state- we can't do these things because Disney gave us $1B in debt
Florida taxes Disney explicitly - illegal, but it has to be challenged in court first
Florida raids hotel taxes - also potentially illegal, and hurts tourism investment, which hurts Disney
Disney compromises on RCID changes with Florida- Disney speaking out against a Florida law now allows Florida to change RCID and contracts at will
Nothing happens to Disney World-That won't satisfy Florida/DeSantis's base. But Disney and RCID now have increased legal fees and a lack of certainty around what they can and cannot do or say, and higher prices on future bonds

There are a lot of avenues by which the situation really does not change. Yes, this comes with a cost of defending the District but it would reaffirm its standing which would create certainty, not uncertainty. Continued actions by the state could create uncertainty but that is a bigger problem for the entire state.

 

[GoofGoof]

Is there really any case where Disney wins?

The governor establishes a district that gives him control over Disney - Disney loses, and may have to wind down Disney World when the governor wants to make changes to other Disney business units
RCID is dissolved and the debt goes to the counties- It's Disney's fault that your taxes are going up and you're more in debt while getting less from your taxes
RCID debt is taken by the state- we can't do these things because Disney gave us $1B in debt
Florida taxes Disney explicitly - illegal, but it has to be challenged in court first
Florida raids hotel taxes - also potentially illegal, and hurts tourism investment, which hurts Disney
Disney compromises on RCID changes with Florida- Disney speaking out against a Florida law now allows Florida to change RCID and contracts at will
Nothing happens to Disney World-That won't satisfy Florida/DeSantis's base. But Disney and RCID now have increased legal fees and a lack of certainty around what they can and cannot do or say, and higher prices on future bonds

A win for Disney is to continue the status quo. They eat some legal fees potentially but not a big deal for them.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

There are a lot of avenues by which the situation really does not change. Yes, this comes with a cost of defending the District but it would reaffirm its standing which would create certainty, not uncertainty. Continued actions by the state could create uncertainty but that is a bigger problem for the entire state.

I think too many are overlooking this. The technicality of where the debt lands isn't really the issue. Just the fact that the state may litigate it beyond terms that were deemed understood by all parties is enough to cost the state millions.

 

[GoofGoof]

The big losers here are the Florida taxpayers.

Could guests to WDW be negatively affected by the loss of RCID? Only time will tell.

The bold point is yet to be determined. It’s possible that if cooler heads prevail FL taxpayers are in no different situation.

As far as WDW guests, its only really negative if this isn’t resolved or the state doubles down and as a result Disney pulls back on future investment in FL or if RCID is dissolved and the services provided by the county are inferior. Longer waits for emergency services (and bills for ambulance rides), more pot holes stuff like that. Hopefully that’s a minor inconvenience.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Is there really any case where Disney wins?

The governor establishes a district that gives him control over Disney - Disney loses, and may have to wind down Disney World when the governor wants to make changes to other Disney business units
RCID is dissolved and the debt goes to the counties- It's Disney's fault that your taxes are going up and you're more in debt while getting less from your taxes
RCID debt is taken by the state- we can't do these things because Disney gave us $1B in debt
Florida taxes Disney explicitly - illegal, but it has to be challenged in court first
Florida raids hotel taxes - also potentially illegal, and hurts tourism investment, which hurts Disney
Disney compromises on RCID changes with Florida- Disney speaking out against a Florida law now allows Florida to change RCID and contracts at will
Nothing happens to Disney World-That won't satisfy Florida/DeSantis's base. But Disney and RCID now have increased legal fees and a lack of certainty around what they can and cannot do or say, and higher prices on future bonds

Disney wins big if it can dump the 1 to 2B of debt off to the florida taxpayers. it does not matter "who's fault" it is.

WDW is not going anywhere and MOBS will continue to go there.

Disney can now invest less in WDW; move even slower with updates to WDW and can now blame it on the state instead of COVID.

 

[mmascari]

Is there really any case where Disney wins?

A better question might be, is there really any case where FL wins?

Lots of those scenarios have horrible results for the entire state of FL. Either directly or in impacts to future bond activity anywhere in the state.

RCID is dissolved and the debt goes to the counties- It's Disney's fault that your taxes are going up and you're more in debt while getting less from your taxes
RCID debt is taken by the state- we can't do these things because Disney gave us $1B in debt

I'm pretty sure Disney PR and media could make sure these two are clearly and correctly pinned on the Governor. It's certainly not a slam dunk that they would be pinned on Disney. It's enough of a risk that the Governor is unlikely to let one of these become the outcome.


Disney could certainly lose something of value with any changes. But, what's the cost to the state of FL for "winning" that? I don't see a way where "winning" puts the state in a better position than losing.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

Is there really any case where Disney wins?

Actually, yes. But in reality, both sides have significant leverage. Neither side wants this to drag out and go into a lengthy court battle. Neither side wants this handled at the county level. And that's why this is going to quietly fade away into the night and almost nothing is going to change.

Too many are looking at this by the book of the law. There's so much more at play here; most prominently politics. A lot of Florida's route to a "win" here means a tax increase or giving Disney a tax break. Both are non-starters. There's a lot more to navigate here.

 

[mmascari]

as a result Disney pulls back on future investment in FL

Think of the lines in the park!!!
Think of all the traffic as the road system isn't updated!

Hmm, maybe those two cancel out. If the traffic gets so bad that it's difficult to get into the park, maybe the lines will go down.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think too many are overlooking this. The technicality of where the debt lands isn't really the issue. Just the fact that the state may litigate it beyond terms that were deemed understood by all parties is enough to cost the state millions.

As the fitch ratings change write-up said, this has a negative outlook for municipal debt in FL across the whole state. As interest rates rise it will cost even more for local governments to borrow. Not a good thing. Aside from the debt aspect there’s also a macro economic impact. FL spent years making itself pro-business and very business friendly to attract other industries outside of the volatile travel and tourism world. This gives a lot of large employers pause. Will incentives they are currently being offered or negotiating be revoked at the whim of the government? They have to add a political risk premium to any project in the state. Hurts the economy long term.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

As the fitch ratings change write-up said, this has a negative outlook for municipal debt in FL across the whole state. As interest rates rise it will cost even more for local governments to borrow. Not a good thing. Aside from the debt aspect there’s also a macro economic impact. FL spent years making itself pro-business and very business friendly to attract other industries outside of the volatile travel and tourism world. This gives a lot of large employers pause. Will incentives they are currently being offered or negotiating be revoked at the whim of the government? They have to add a political risk premium to any project in the state. Hurts the economy long term.

Loyal DeSantis supporters think this is a pill that he is willing to swallow; he's absolutely not.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

It's Disney's fault that your taxes are going up and you're more in debt while getting less from your taxes

Last I checked, that tax increase happened with the stroke of Ron DeSantis' pen. Not by any fault of Disney.

It's like the county taking your house and then people complaining that you stopped paying taxes on it. That's not going to fly.

 

[GoofGoof]

Loyal DeSantis supporters think this is a pill that he is willing to swallow; he's absolutely not.

This should be bigger than any one man. Who was the Governor of FL 10 years ago? How about 50 when RCID was created? Imagine that guy 50 years ago decided to grand stand and put his personal political agenda ahead of the state economy and refused Disney so they built WDW in Texas instead. That would even trump Disney losing Harry Potter to Universal as the biggest missed opportunity of all time. Think about the economic impact even 50 years later. Now I’m not saying losing RCID now will be anywhere as dramatic as that, but people should really think longer term than the midterm elections and some guy wanting to be President. Is any of this in the best interest of FL? Hard to argue that if you care at all about the economy.

 

[lazyboy97o]

In the latest episode of The Disney Dish, @lentesta brings up the interesting argument that the law dissolving districts that predate the current constitution doesn’t even apply to the Reedy Creek Improvement District. The law says it dissolves districts that have not been “reestablished, re-ratified, or otherwise
reconstituted” and the argument he presents is that the supreme court ruling along with multiple references to the District in subsequent legislation and state agency work would all constitute “re-ratification” as the state repeatedly acknowledged the District’s legal existence.

 

[Lilofan]

This should be bigger than any one man. Who was the Governor of FL 10 years ago? How about 50 when RCID was created? Imagine that guy 50 years ago decided to grand stand and put his personal political agenda ahead of the state economy and refused Disney so they built WDW in Texas instead. That would even trump Disney losing Harry Potter to Universal as the biggest missed opportunity of all time. Think about the economic impact even 50 years later. Now I’m not saying losing RCID now will be anywhere as dramatic as that, but people should really think longer term than the midterm elections and some guy wanting to be President. Is any of this in the best interest of FL? Hard to argue that if you care at all about the economy.

10 years ago the FL Governor was Rick Scott who was pro business . On the Welcome to Florida sign at the GA/FL line on I-95 his signature was below the sign and the sign also said Open For Business. When the first Wawa opened in FL near Orlando Sea World, during his term, Rick Scott was there for the grand opening while tourists and some Northerners living in FL rejoiced .

 

[Disney Glimpses]

This should be bigger than any one man. Who was the Governor of FL 10 years ago? How about 50 when RCID was created? Imagine that guy 50 years ago decided to grand stand and put his personal political agenda ahead of the state economy and refused Disney so they built WDW in Texas instead. That would even trump Disney losing Harry Potter to Universal as the biggest missed opportunity of all time. Think about the economic impact even 50 years later. Now I’m not saying losing RCID now will be anywhere as dramatic as that, but people should really think longer term than the midterm elections and some guy wanting to be President. Is any of this in the best interest of FL? Hard to argue that if you care at all about the economy.

Exactly. And people call me a "shill" when I say this, but the State made an agreement with the company that has been quite successful for all parties. Disney has held up their end of the bargain and then some. It's a pretty weasel thing to back out of an agreement especially when it doesn't benefit a single taxpayer.

 

[Dranth]

Is that combined with some instant run off or is it just the top two with the "most" out of the entire field?

If it's the latter, it's a huge disadvantage to a large field. Since field splitting reduces the number of votes available to someone. I seem to remember a relatively recent CA primary that worked like that. Something where one party had 2 candidates and the other had like 10 (give or take my very failing memory).

Pretend you have 100 voters and let's make is super lopsided too. Say 30 are in the party of 2, and 70 in the party of 10. Everyone votes on party lines and the votes are all completely evenly split. The candidates in the party of 2 each get 15 votes. The candidates in the party of 10 each get 7 votes. The two with the "most" are the two with 15 votes each, more than twice as many as any other candidate. So, the general get's the 2 from the party of 30 and nobody else. Which sounds like a problem.

In the CA one I'm remembering, it wasn't quite that lopsided, but there was a real concern. I think they convinced someone to drop out to avoid splitting it.


Now we're really far from RCID, but at least it's a politically neutral example.

Unless there's some RCID or RCID Replacement voting structure that could fit this pattern?

Nothing some ranked choice voting can't fix.

It would be interesting to see a state implement the open primary with ranked choice but my guess is the powers that be don't want to give up any control and would see that as a risk to their own plans.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

A better question might be, is there really any case where FL wins?

Lots of those scenarios have horrible results for the entire state of FL. Either directly or in impacts to future bond activity anywhere in the state.


I'm pretty sure Disney PR and media could make sure these two are clearly and correctly pinned on the Governor. It's certainly not a slam dunk that they would be pinned on Disney. It's enough of a risk that the Governor is unlikely to let one of these become the outcome.


Disney could certainly lose something of value with any changes. But, what's the cost to the state of FL for "winning" that? I don't see a way where "winning" puts the state in a better position than losing.

It's much easier for Disney's PR team to pin blame for any taxpayer burden on the State since the State is the party that initiated these proceedings in the first place and those responsible are on record saying that they have a plan to prevent anyone outside the RCID boundaries from paying any additional taxes because of this mess. If that turns out to not be the case then it's not going to be Disney's fault - it will be another broken promise from politicians drunk on power. I still think the end result will be that RCID remains in place as-is, though.