While I'm just as excited as the rest of you, let's be a little more rational about how POTC:AWE will do. I don't think it can top Spiderman 3.
First, despite getting an extra show in at 8pm, it doesn't seem that this show will be counted in totals (they are by no means official, but boxofficemojo.com didn't count Shrek's extra shows). This means that places that moved the 12:01am show to 8pm and are now having 0 shows at midnight are lost from the totals.
Second, the movie is 28 minutes shorter than Spiderman 3. While I'm no math expert, I would imagine this amounts to 2 less showings of the film per day, PER SCREEN.
Third, while Shrek 3 and Spiderman 3 got less-than-stellar reviews, it appears PotC 3 is in for the same. While it's still early, check out Rotten Tomatoes (
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/pirates_of_the_caribbean_3/). I would normally say, "let's wait and see," but read them. They aren't giving it poor reviews for
differing reasons, but rather all seem to agree that it's a long, babbling film. Doesn't make a big difference to me, but negative reviews will hurt its box office take to some degree.
Fourth, when Spiderman 3 came out, what other big films were in theaters? Wild Hogs, Meet the Robinsons? Exactly. Nothing big. Now Shrek 3 and Spiderman 3 are both out. While Spiderman 3 is sinking faster than the Titantic, most theaters will not be able to devote the shear number of screens to POTC:AWE as they did Spiderman 3.
Just my thoughts on what will happen. I hope I'm wrong. I hope this movie gets nothing but stellar reviews from here on out and breaks all records. I don't expect that, and it doesn't change what I'll think of the film, but I don't think we should base what's going on at Downtown Disney (which might hold an unrepresentative number of POTC fans) as a barometer for what will happen nationwide.