News Peak season crowds have arrived

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I pay for things that I see value in.. its amazing, absolutely utterly amazing to me, that someone who complains about Disney repeatedly, every single day.. Will then go to Disney during Spring Break.. and claim how enlightened that are and how everyone else is the Fools.

I spend money where I see value currently, not because I’m clinging to the past.

One of those sounds foolish, one doesn’t. But if we convince ourselves that we’re really not the fool, then I guess it can be justifiable.. maybe..sorta? I don’t know, I got nothing really.

See...with all due respect, you made all that bold part up. I have a detailed understanding of SOME things...and an informed opinion of MANY things...

But I rarely name call...I think I’ve done it maybe 3 times on the digital Disney playgrounds in 20 years with severe provocation. It can be very civil and I know very enlightening...not necessarily information wise all the time but definitely understanding mentalities and angles of the humans.

And I have kids too...sometimes it’s eaiser to go with the vacation schedule. I don’t complain About spring break...I know what it is and have reasonable expectations that allow for enjoyment.

That said...my consumption has decreased a lot during this bubble insanity period (2013-present)...less frequency, rejection of product, longer gaps, rare frugality, moving on to other destinations/providers.

Hope all this clears up the misunderstanding.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

As a MK cast member, I for one say that last week was terrible, the guests were just straight up angry at everything. One night for instance I was working Parade Audience Control for HEA and it was mayhem, it got to the point where a guest elbowed me in the chest and almost knocked me down just to get a (terrible might I add) view of the show, we had to end up calling security.

My predictions is incidents like these will grow. It’s the financial stress of higher prices combined with the onslaught of higher daily/weekly attendance.

Diminished value...in simple terms

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

But I thought Disney didn't have any slow times anymore?

Not this again. It's about capacity *and* utilization.

Take Mickey. The ride will have a higher poh throughout than GMR. Plus it will likely be more popular (I've been on GMR many times with empty seats). As much as I love GMR, that's a net gain, although not as much as if they had built it net new.
Take Star Wars. It is replacing Backlot tour and LMA. Two attractions that were also very underutilized. So again, probably a net gain there too. Part of proper park planning is building new, of course, but also seeing what isn't drawing crowds and helping with the overall capacity, and either fixing or replacing those things so they do draw.

It will be “about this”...for sometime until attendance flattens and/or more additions are added. That’s just simple numbers.

What is “utilization”? The fast pass system is already slammed...When they insititute pay fastpasses, that will actually help. Until then...Any “utilization” is just an elaborate way to misdirect people to other things? That’s the only thing I can come up with...

Do tell...

 

[Texas84]

It's runDisney time again next week.

 

[mikejs78]

It's runDisney time again next week.

It is, but it's next weekend and I dont think this event is as big as the one in Jan.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It is, but it's next weekend and I dont think this event is as big as the one in Jan.

The point is...there are no slow “periods”...a few days here or there...to answer your previous 100% non-sarcastic question.

 

[mikejs78]

It will be “about this”...for sometime until attendance flattens and/or more additions are added. That’s just simple numbers.

What is “utilization”? The fast pass system is already slammed...When they insititute pay fastpasses, that will actually help. Until then...Any “utilization” is just an elaborate way to misdirect people to other things? That’s the only thing I can come up with...

Do tell...

It's quite simple supply/demand really. Let's say you have an attraction like Backlot that has a pph capacity of 2500 (the supply). Now let's say that people don't want to ride Backlot, so it's demand is only about 1500 pph. That's 1000 pph that aren't utilizing the attraction and are doing things elsewhere in the park (like waiting in line for R&Rc). Now let's say Disney closes Backlot and replaces it with the Falcon ride that has a capacity of 2000 pph. It's technically less capacity than what it replaced, but the demand is higher, so utilization for that attraction is at 100%, as opposed to before where it was only at 60%. So with this replacement, theoretical capacity for that attraction was actually reduced, but because it was utilized better, the overall actual pph throughput for the park increases.

* Note #s aren't actual capacity figures, just used for illustration.

 

[mikejs78]

The point is...there are no slow “periods”...a few days here or there...to answer your previous 100% non-sarcastic question.

I'll report back after next week and give you my take on the crowd levels.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'll report back after next week and give you my take on the crowd levels.

Look forward to it (actually 100% non sarcastic )

 

[Bairstow]

I know unlikely due to cost and setup, etc. but without a night parade and the popularity of HEA, it would be nice to see 2 viewings of it most nights due to the mass crowds now wanting to be in front of the castle to see projections

At least with Wishes/ Celebrate the Magic combo, crowds were often happy to enjoy Wishes from other areas of the park. Now that it's all one big show with stringent sightlines, everyone feels compelled to bumrush the hub every single evening.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It's quite simple supply/demand really. Let's say you have an attraction like Backlot that has a pph capacity of 2500 (the supply). Now let's say that people don't want to ride Backlot, so it's demand is only about 1500 pph. That's 1000 pph that aren't utilizing the attraction and are doing things elsewhere in the park (like waiting in line for R&Rc). Now let's say Disney closes Backlot and replaces it with the Falcon ride that has a capacity of 2000 pph. It's technically less capacity than what it replaced, but the demand is higher, so utilization for that attraction is at 100%, as opposed to before where it was only at 60%. So with this replacement, theoretical capacity for that attraction was actually reduced, but because it was utilized better, the overall actual pph throughput for the park increases.

* Note #s aren't actual capacity figures, just used for illustration.

Supply and demand is a financial term...not a theme park strategy in daily operations.

But the reason i disagree (not discount and certainly not call you a fool ) with your take here is the fact what they took out what nobody rode, doesn’t matter.

They are expecting an attendance influx with the 5 new attractions to bring mgm up to a 12,000,000+ annual attendance plus park and it needs more of that backlot/gmr type stuff for overflow. There’s only so many seats on slinky dog...Disney park flow works when they have tiers (based on demand...not fastpass classification for rationing) that can shift people over the course of the day.

By this time next year they will have none...and the mobs at animal kingdom now - which had more stuff in by first place - could be overrun with two popular IP, underbuilt lands.

It’s something to watch.

 

[twebber55]

Just landed at the airport in Orlando so this is great to hear.

be there tomorrow

 

[mikejs78]

Supply and demand is a financial term...not a theme park strategy in daily operations.

Yes I know. I was using these terms because they are somewhat analogous and something most people understand. In queuing theory, it's service rate vs arrival rate.

But the reason i disagree (not discount and certainly not call you a fool ) with your take here is the fact what they took and nobody rode it, doesn’t matter.

They are expecting an attendance influx with the 5 new attractions to bring mgm up to a 12,000,000 annual attendance plus park and it needs more of that backlot/gmr type stuff for overflow. There’s only so many seats on slinky dog...Disney park flow works when they have tiers (based on demand...not fastpass classification for rationing) that can shift people over the course of the day.

By this time next year they will have none...and the mobs at animal kingdom now - which had more stuff in by first place - could be overrun with two popular IP, underbuilt lands.

It’s something to watch.

Believe it or not, I dont really disagree with any of this, at least for DHS. Star Wars is going to massively increase overall park attendance, thus increasing demand and arrival rate at most attractions. That doesn't negate the fact that net throughput will have increased. All things being equal, if attendance remained flat, DHS would be in good shape after the.two lands plus Mickey are done. However, as Pandora showed, new quality attractions with a lackluster IP drive attendance. What will a popular IP with a devoted fanbase do? It's going to be chaos and they need a set of solid C/D ticket attractions with high capacity to help offset the influx.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes I know. I was using these terms because they are somewhat analogous and something most people understand. In queuing theory, it's service rate vs arrival rate.



Believe it or not, I dont really disagree with any of this, at least for DHS. Star Wars is going to massively increase overall park attendance, thus increasing demand and arrival rate at most attractions. That doesn't negate the fact that net throughput will have increased. All things being equal, if attendance remained flat, DHS would be in good shape after the.two lands plus Mickey are done. However, as Pandora showed, new quality attractions with a lackluster IP drive attendance. What will a popular IP with a devoted fanbase do? It's going to be chaos and they need a set of solid C/D ticket attractions with high capacity to help offset the influx.

But the throughout put is currently down significantly from 2015 without anything added since 2009. So there really isn’t an “increase” because they are turning the stepchild park into number 2

 

[Bairstow]

...However, as Pandora showed, new quality attractions with a lackluster IP drive attendance. ...

It still kinda blows my mind that we refer to the highest-grossing film of all time as a "lackluster IP".

 

[ford91exploder]

At least with Wishes/ Celebrate the Magic combo, crowds were often happy to enjoy Wishes from other areas of the park. Now that it's all one big show with stringent sightlines, everyone feels compelled to bumrush the hub every single evening.

That was the whole point of Wishes, It could be enjoyed from almost anywhere in the park with a good sightline because the designers deliberately wanted the show be enjoyable from everywhere. Yes the view was better from some locations but that true for ANY show.

Fast forward to today and Disney's fascination with making 'The Castle' the centerpiece of the show and to facilitate that the concrete wasteland known as the hub was created by paving over the existing hub which at one time separated the lands and made it possible for a German castle to coexist with a Middle American Main Street.

Heck the interior of the Polynesian GCH was demolished so you could see 'The Castle' all 30 arc minutes of it in height when you enter the lobby of the Hampton Inn ^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H Great Ceremonial House.

Disney's great achievement paving over paradise to put up a stroller parking lot.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It's going to be chaos and they need a set of solid C/D ticket attractions with high capacity to help offset the influx.

and how at they gonna do that? It’s impossible...because it takes 10 years and a fortune.

Mgm has two...voyage of the little mermaid and muppetvision...that fits that criteria. Midway should be one...but it has a 2 hour wait.

 

[ford91exploder]

It still kinda blows my mind that we refer to the highest-grossing film of all time as a "lackluster IP".

Avatar was an awful film, But it was as groundbreaking as 'The Jazz Singer' was in the 1930's as both were technological breakthroughs and as such were both for a time the box office leaders. The Jazz Singer was the first film with WORKING synchronized sound, Avatar was the first film with WORKING 3D and the eye candy to utilize it. Does not change the fact that people flocked to see the eye candy, The movie itself much less so.

Had Avatar been shot in 2D, We would not even be talking about it today.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It still kinda blows my mind that we refer to the highest-grossing film of all time as a "lackluster IP".

But it is...it has no following and competed against nothing.

Putrid Star Wars movies make a billion as well...for the exact opposite reason.

Strange world.

 

[ford91exploder]

and how at they gonna do that? It’s impossible...because it takes 10 years and a fortune.

Mgm has two...voyage of the little mermaid and muppetvision...that fits that criteria. Midway should be one...but it has a 2 hour wait.

It's impossible for Today's Disney you mean, UNI has no problem coming up with fast C/D tickets.