News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So Tropical Storm Michael is strengthening and will probably be a hurricane when it lands this week (probably on the panhandle). I’m going to assume this will possibly have an effect on some crowds?

Also, I leave for Orlando on Sunday, and would reeeeeallly like the hurricanes and storms to stay away while I’m there. Rain, that’s no issue for me, but hurricanes... ehhh

It’s florida...that’s part of the deal unfortunately

 

[HauntedPirate]

So Tropical Storm Michael is strengthening and will probably be a hurricane when it lands this week (probably on the panhandle). I’m going to assume this will possibly have an effect on some crowds?

Also, I leave for Orlando on Sunday, and would reeeeeallly like the hurricanes and storms to stay away while I’m there. Rain, that’s no issue for me, but hurricanes... ehhh

My two oldest leave on Friday, going with my mom and niece (family story behind it, perhaps another time). I'm just glad this should move through by that time, my mom's anxiety would go through the roof if this happened while they were there. And they definitely don't need to deal with that!

 

[disneyflush]

I also think that the dream of SWGE, what it may be during the first year of it being open with it being fully immersive and with people walking around interacting with the guests, will quickly die off to a land with props, rides, food, and merch. I just have a hard time imagining, after the initial fan fare, that WDW will keep on a full crew of actors to interact with the guests. I see it being more more like what DHS had before with: Once in a while they'd bring out Vader and some storm troopers for some stage-show deal.

This is super interesting.

 

[Princess Leia]

Michael’s officially a Category 1 hurricane. There’s a state of emergency for 26 counties (Orange County not included). I have a feeling that those in the panhandle might be booking it to Disney and Uni if they don’t have another place to go.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Michael’s officially a Category 1 hurricane. There’s a state of emergency for 26 counties (Orange County not included). I have a feeling that those in the panhandle might be booking it to Disney and Uni if they don’t have another place to go.

Maybe...because common sense is lost.

If your instincts tell you to go further out onto a peninsula during a tropical storm...your gps is completely busted.

That’s like being on a ship with a tiny leak and saying “oh look...there’s Haiti...we’ll be safe there!”

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think we may be on the verge of the same thing with Marvel. I suspect there are more than a few people that are happy to 'check-out' after a wrapped up Infinity War. There's probably a degree of this going on with the parks as well.

Excellent take...but I wanted to comment on this specific point.

Marvel is at a big time crossroads and I agree that they are pushing too hard. It’s very easy for pop culture to turn from “huge” to “too much” on a dime.

The problem disney has is they went “depp” with RDJ and now they are in a pay war with specifically hemsworth and Evans.

Evans said “I’m done” last week and that was about pay - not personal growth as an actor.
Pratt and cooper will follow. As will most of the others.

Of course - eerily like Star Wars - a lot of fans went online and said “good...he sucked anyway...won’t matter”

Wrong...he was good and he’ll be missed and it would drag anybody in that character down and the overall appeal.

But it reminds me of the Star Wars prequels reaction...”george did something different...so what? They’re still great”

No...they sucked and continue to...because the problem more than bad dialogue was that the grit feel of 1980-83 was replaced with silly N64 style look that made you just forget or want to forget everything as the credits rolled.

You can’t take out key elements that are the foundation of the appeal and just stick in anything over top.

Ok...back to attendance

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Gotta make those quarterlies, as we all know.

So if recent cuts were their knee-jerk reaction to some "softness" in September, what happens if the expect bump from SW:GE is softer and shorter than their projections? *shudder*

Sadly...Disney has a template for that:

Behind the scenes...they will complain incessantly to the Hollywood types/partners and money people about the Fans.

Ungrateful brats.

“Look at all this money we spent making movies...look at our park investments...they don’t appreciate what it takes to make such high quality....blah blah”

And sadly...the reason that will happen is it’s been going on for 19 years already...a silent war against those who lined your pockets.

Probably the most discouraging thing as a lifelong Star Wars Fan is that the Hollywood accountants hate you for wanting it to be good. How dare we?

 

[Casper Gutman]

Excellent take...but I wanted to comment on this specific point.

Marvel is at a big time crossroads and I agree that they are pushing too hard. It’s very easy for pop culture to turn from “huge” to “too much” on a dime.

The problem disney has is they went “depp” with RDJ and now they are in a pay war with specifically hemsworth and Evans.

Evans said “I’m done” last week and that was about pay - not personal growth as an actor.
Pratt and cooper will follow. As will most of the others.

Of course - eerily like Star Wars - a lot of fans went online and said “good...he sucked anyway...won’t matter”

Wrong...he was good and he’ll be missed and it would drag anybody in that character down and the overall appeal.

But it reminds me of the Star Wars prequels reaction...”george did something different...so what? They’re still great”

No...they sucked and continue to...because the problem more than bad dialogue was that the grit feel of 1980-83 was replaced with silly N64 style look that made you just forget or want to forget everything as the credits rolled.

You can’t take out key elements that are the foundation of the appeal and just stick in anything over top.

Ok...back to attendance

I disagree strongly here. People have been predicting the end of the MCU specifically and comic films in general for a long time. It hasn’t happened. Quite frankly, we don’t know the limits of the MCU. Their is absolutely nothing in pop culture history - no genre cycle, no film franchise - with which to compare it. And Evans leaving (which I had not heard was about money - where did that info come from?) is unlikely to be a blip - they’ve got two potential Caps waiting to go. What’s more, they have a host of new characters set to be pushed to the forefront. RDJ’s departure will be tricky, but there is really no reason to think that, after a few years absence, a new Iron Man can’t enjoy success.

In short, we are in completely uncharted pop culture territory with the MCU. Anyone who says they know for sure what is going to happen to it is wrong. The tea leaves we do have, however, seem to point to continued success.

As to SWL, I think it is very possible Disney waited too long to build the land - SW is in a very strange cultural place at the moment, and it’s success and failure rest to a considerable extent on social currents beyond the control of filmmakers. A lot of people will go to SWL, but the wildly optimistic estimates of a few years ago may be off. And watch the panic then...

PS: going back to Marvel for a moment, look at the box office returns for Venom, a badly reviewed film from a studio with a shaky history of Marvel films featuring a niche character that might alienate younger viewers. Predicting the imminent decline of Marvel films isn’t a safe bet.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I disagree strongly here. People have been predicting the end of the MCU specifically and comic films in general for a long time. It hasn’t happened. Quite frankly, we don’t know the limits of the MCU. Their is absolutely nothing in pop culture history - no genre cycle, no film franchise - with which to compare it. And Evans leaving (which I had not heard was about money - where did that info come from?) is unlikely to be a blip - they’ve got two potential Caps waiting to go. What’s more, they have a host of new characters set to be pushed to the forefront. RDJ’s departure will be tricky, but there is really no reason to think that, after a few years absence, a new Iron Man can’t enjoy success.

In short, we are in completely uncharted pop culture territory with the MCU. Anyone who says they know for sure what is going to happen to it is wrong. The tea leaves we do have, however, seem to point to continued success.

As to SWL, I think it is very possible Disney waited too long to build the land - SW is in a very strange cultural place at the moment, and it’s success and failure rest to a considerable extent on social currents beyond the control of filmmakers. A lot of people will go to SWL, but the wildly optimistic estimates of a few years ago may be off. And watch the panic then...

PS: going back to Marvel for a moment, look at the box office returns for Venom, a badly reviewed film from a studio with a shaky history of Marvel films featuring a niche character that might alienate younger viewers. Predicting the imminent decline of Marvel films isn’t a safe bet.

Who is predicting the “imminent decline”
Of marvel?

Nobody I know...but your post is kinda a standard around here on any Disney subject...short range scope.

Because marvel is great today does not mean it is being handled for what’s best in 10 years.

Comic book do get oversaturated and fade periodically...that’s not a shocking take.

I mean...I’ve lived through the entire Batman/Superman franchises and they have had the highest heights and pathetic lows.

What are the three best superhero movies ever made?

Dark knight, Superman and X2 in some order (search it and that’s what the consensus says...I agree)

Superman hasn’t been able to find stable ground for 30 years...Batman can’t figure out to cast matt Damon next or an 19 year old...

Comic book movies aren’t a given other than a big couple of weekends. Way more disposable entries than black panthers or winter soldiers.

Want a marvel example? Spiderman was like the greatest thing since sliced bread - punked attack of the clones - in 2002 and has gone through bad movies and two reboots since...it hasn’t been That long.

Disney wouldn’t do it?
Look what has happened with their other “can’t miss” franchise in 10 months...10 months!! They’re on lockdown and can’t move product.

I mean...you remember all these examples, right?

 

[larryz]

Maybe...because common sense is lost.

If your instincts tell you to go further out onto a peninsula during a tropical storm...your gps is completely busted.

That’s like being on a ship with a tiny leak and saying “oh look...there’s Haiti...we’ll be safe there!”

Any old port in a storm.

Because marvel is great today does not mean it is being handled for what’s best in 10 years.

You sound like you've missed all the "quarterly results" arguments around here...

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You sound like you've missed all the "quarterly results" arguments around here...

Sadly...I haven’t missed any and that’s why it’s depressing.

“captain smith to the bridge...”

 

[Casper Gutman]

Who is predicting the “imminent decline”
Of marvel?

Nobody I know...but your post is kinda a standard around here on any Disney subject...short range scope.

Because marvel is great today does not mean it is being handled for what’s best in 10 years.

Comic book do get oversaturated and fade periodically...that’s not a shocking take.

I mean...I’ve lived through the entire Batman/Superman franchises and they have had the highest heights and pathetic lows.

What are the three best superhero movies ever made?

Dark knight, Superman and X2 in some order (search it and that’s what the consensus says...I agree)

Superman hasn’t been able to find stable ground for 30 years...Batman can’t figure out to cast matt Damon next or an 19 year old...

Comic book movies aren’t a given other than a big couple of weekends. Way more disposable entries than black panthers or winter soldiers.

Want a marvel example? Spiderman was like the greatest thing since sliced bread - punked attack of the clones - in 2002 and has gone through bad movies and two reboots since...it hasn’t been That long.

Disney wouldn’t do it?
Look what has happened with their other “can’t miss” franchise in 10 months...10 months!! They’re on lockdown and can’t move product.

I mean...you remember all these examples, right?

The entire point of the MCU is that it has been fundamentally conceived as a long-term project at every level of the creative and marketing process in a way no other franchise in pop culture history has been, and those plans are being executed with significant competence. It’s actually an excellent contrast to WDW, where long term vision seems to have been lost, and decisions are made with only immeadiate goals in mind. Another great contrast is WBs superhero film unit, which is cranking out an absurd number of Joker and Harley films, guaranteeing over-saturation, because they are desperate for success and have repeatedly failed to develop intelligence plans for the long term exploitation of their IP library. It should also be noted that the SW and Marvel units are run largely independently of one another, so the mistakes made in exploiting one franchise should not be expected to manifest in the handling of the other.

You also seem to be mixing up film quality and financial success. Spider-Man films, even the ones of questionable quality like Spider-Man 3 and Amazing Spider-Man 2, have been financial successes which have prompted reboots ONLY because they did not match the wild success of other contemporary comic films.

Past comic film cycles like Batman and Superman followed a pattern of generic rise and fall which we have seen throughout the history of film. Such genre cycles usually last under a decade and behave in particular ways. The current Marvel cycle is entering its seventeenth year and has not displayed most of the patterns we have come to expect from genre cycles. It’s a new beast.

The current comic film moment will fade - all things do - but it will likely be the result of very substantial financial and industrial change in the various culture industries.

As for SW, it is in a very odd place. It has become embroiled in a much, much larger set of cultural and social debates. It does seem to be in a shaky position, but I don’t think we can be certain of its future health until we see the returns for episode IX and SWL.

 

[Frankie The Beer]

Was just there the parks seemed pretty busy.

 

[disneyflush]

Gotta make those quarterlies, as we all know.

So if recent cuts were their knee-jerk reaction to some "softness" in September, what happens if the expect bump from SW:GE is softer and shorter than their projections? *shudder*

Disney hasn't shown a lot of resiliency lately when faced with any decision to put guest experience over profit.

 

[MrHorse]

As for SW, it is in a very odd place. It has become embroiled in a much, much larger set of cultural and social debates. It does seem to be in a shaky position, but I don’t think we can be certain of its future health until we see the returns for episode IX and SWL.

I think most of the culture-war talk about Star Wars is a bit of a tempest in a teacup. I could be wrong, but from what I've seen most of the hand-wringing is being done by an especially loud minority. I haven't run into much evidence of those debates among the general public.

I'd argue that Star Wars' issue is mainly that they seem to be having a lot of trouble creating compelling new characters and villains and recreating the mystery and awe that pervaded the original films. I feel like Glover as Lando kinda epitomizes the whole franchise at this point. It sounds perfect on paper. It looks great in a trailer. But they made the film a couple notches too conservatively and it came out feeling restrained and overworked.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The entire point of the MCU is that it has been fundamentally conceived as a long-term project at every level of the creative and marketing process in a way no other franchise in pop culture history has been, and those plans are being executed with significant competence. It’s actually an excellent contrast to WDW, where long term vision seems to have been lost, and decisions are made with only immeadiate goals in mind. Another great contrast is WBs superhero film unit, which is cranking out an absurd number of Joker and Harley films, guaranteeing over-saturation, because they are desperate for success and have repeatedly failed to develop intelligence plans for the long term exploitation of their IP library. It should also be noted that the SW and Marvel units are run largely independently of one another, so the mistakes made in exploiting one franchise should not be expected to manifest in the handling of the other.

You also seem to be mixing up film quality and financial success. Spider-Man films, even the ones of questionable quality like Spider-Man 3 and Amazing Spider-Man 2, have been financial successes which have prompted reboots ONLY because they did not match the wild success of other contemporary comic films.

Past comic film cycles like Batman and Superman followed a pattern of generic rise and fall which we have seen throughout the history of film. Such genre cycles usually last under a decade and behave in particular ways. The current Marvel cycle is entering its seventeenth year and has not displayed most of the patterns we have come to expect from genre cycles. It’s a new beast.

The current comic film moment will fade - all things do - but it will likely be the result of very substantial financial and industrial change in the various culture industries.

As for SW, it is in a very odd place. It has become embroiled in a much, much larger set of cultural and social debates. It does seem to be in a shaky position, but I don’t think we can be certain of its future health until we see the returns for episode IX and SWL.

So we’re gonna do this thing where we completely ignore each other...while making a lot of the same points?

Ok...carry on.

 

[Nmoody1]

Was just there the parks seemed pretty busy.

I can't get a room on property at all for 8th-10th November! :/

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I can't get a room on property at all for 8th-10th November! :/

You can get plenty of rooms/empty houses in New Jersey that week

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think most of the culture-war talk about Star Wars is a bit of a tempest in a teacup. I could be wrong, but from what I've seen most of the hand-wringing is being done by an especially loud minority. I haven't run into much evidence of those debates among the general public.

I'd argue that Star Wars' issue is mainly that they seem to be having a lot of trouble creating compelling new characters and villains and recreating the mystery and awe that pervaded the original films. I feel like Glover as Lando kinda epitomizes the whole franchise at this point. It sounds perfect on paper. It looks great in a trailer. But they made the film a couple notches too conservatively and it came out feeling restrained and overworked.

I agree completely...

They just simply won’t write the right type of story arc with clever/relatable characters...and if the fans tell the truth they get stigmatized/Blamed.

It’s getting to be a tired excuse.

 

[kong1802]

I can't get a room on property at all for 8th-10th November! :/

They seem to be holding rooms for longer reservations a little more aggressively now.

8-10 nothing.....6-10 a lot opens up...