On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

[Nubs70]

Ah. Given my hiatus, i shall elaborate farther.

The best case scenario right now is Disney's post 9/11 reaction. Which involved mass layoffs, cancelled projects, and attendance falling off a cliff.

You're right that it doesnt equate much, but its the closest I can come up with. Things are going to be bad.

With the immediate impact of Covid on employment was 5 times greater than 9/11.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Even then... compare wilderness lodge and animal kingdom lodge to Riveria. Eisner still cared, he was just scared after Paris.

You've never been to Aulani, eh?

 

[wdisney9000]

Just thinking about this now; how many within the fan community even went pre-2005?

It's now 2020. We have a whole generation of post-social media Disney fans who only first went within the last 10, maybe 15 years.

We used to talk about how many fans didn't know what Disney was like in the 90s. Now the early 2000s are ancient history to some.

I think a large part of the disconnect in the fan community stems from this. Its why a majority of people get excited about attractions such as a Moana walk through or the concept of turning EPCOT and HS into another Magic Kingdom. They never experienced a truly diverse WDW with dimensional theming throughout the parks and resorts, not just theme on the surface.

The same crowd who never visited pre-2005, let alone visited in the late 80s and 90s and never experienced it are the same who trot out the old, "WaLt sAiD hE DidNt wAnT a mUsEum", whenever those of us who did visit back then, cite the lack of fluid design and concept in some of the latest offerings over the last decade or more.

 

[Capsin4]

I’m really surprised by the lack of discounts coming out now and into fall. I very much remember the reaction to the post 911 slump.

I left the Army in spring of ‘02 and there were unprecedented and unmatched discounts (as far as I know). Disney, Uni and Sea World were all offering free 5 day passes for active duty and friends/family. Southwest Airlines had a free buddy ticket with purchase. I paid $150 round trip for two people to fly from DC, stayed offsite and could not use all the days offered by the parks.

I thought that would be the best vacation deal I ever got. We’ll see!

 

[Heppenheimer]

I’m really surprised by the lack of discounts coming out now and into fall. I very much remember the reaction to the post 911 slump.

I left the Army in spring of ‘02 and there were unprecedented and unmatched discounts (as far as I know). Disney, Uni and Sea World were all offering free 5 day passes for active duty and friends/family. Southwest Airlines had a free buddy ticket with purchase. I paid $150 round trip for two people to fly from DC, stayed offsite and could not use all the days offered by the parks.

I thought that would be the best vacation deal I ever got. We’ll see!

Yeah, I remember those post 9-11 military discounts. They were amazing, by today's standards. I was stationed in Georgia at the time, but unfortunately, something always seemed to come up that prevented me from taking advantage.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I’m really surprised by the lack of discounts coming out now and into fall. I very much remember the reaction to the post 911 slump.

I left the Army in spring of ‘02 and there were unprecedented and unmatched discounts (as far as I know). Disney, Uni and Sea World were all offering free 5 day passes for active duty and friends/family. Southwest Airlines had a free buddy ticket with purchase. I paid $150 round trip for two people to fly from DC, stayed offsite and could not use all the days offered by the parks.

I thought that would be the best vacation deal I ever got. We’ll see!

They don’t want people coming right now. That’s why rooms are rack rate, no free dining.. no discounts at all into next year. They will take anyone that’s willing to pay 700 bucks for a studio at OKW or SSR, if people are willing to pay that but that’s all they want in right now. It’s a different ballgame from 9/11.

 

[John park hopper]

If they don't want people coming why open at all?

 

[HongKongFooy]

The 9/11 era Disney business is my wheelhouse...so I’m coming out of the bullpen throwing 99 on this one.

So you're simultaneously a batter and a pitcher........

 

[Piebald]

First, obligitory "OMG it's @PhotoDave219 ! @mkt ! @ParentsOf4 !" - it kind of feels like Old Home Week. Or, more accurately, it feels like one of those milestone times when you only see certain people - the whole "we only see each other at weddings and funerals these days," and let's face it...this ain't a wedding.



There were probably 30+ posts in this thread that I wanted to reply while reading the entire thing, but this one above speaks as close to anything to the reality of this situation, and this is the first chance I have had. When I read some of these posts thinking that pretty much anything is going back to normal any time even remotely soon is in the "denial" mode of acceptance.

The thought that "oh, Disney is just slow because people don't want to wear masks" idea is...preposterous. Those masks are the only reason they are even allowed to open.

There seems to be some, er, regional differences in what folks are reporting here. So for the record, I'm in the north east (New England) - which, unless something has changed, is pretty much Disney's top market (and I believe someone else verified this a few pages ago).

What I can tell you, we are still taking this very seriously here. Sure, there is the odd crazy "oh this is all overblown!" bracket, but masks are still a fact of life. Just grocery shopping is still a major event - and we still are having hit and miss days in what is stocked (lately, you can find toilet paper OR paper towels, but for some reason, almost no matter where you rarely find both, and if they do, it's just one or two brands). An exceptional trip out would be to actually sit down at an outdoor restaurant, where everyone including staff is masked unless you are sitting at a table.

With all this going on - if you looked at most people and said, "You know what, I'm going to Disney World!" they would look at you like you were insane. Florida is in the running for hot spot of the world, and going to such a notoriously public place as a theme park, Walt Disney World, of all places. I mean, they utterly wouldn't believe you and would think you were joking.

Even best case scenario, even if some miracle vaccine gets released, sure, more people would come - but there are a lot of people who still wouldn't even consider coming for years, even then. There is also so much we still do not know, as well - sure, you might not die if you get it, but we are just finding out that even those that recover have lasting effects and we have no idea which of them may turn out to be long-term. Many people are not willing to risk this, particularly for something as frivolous as Disney.

Now, that part aside - I also don't think everyone understands economically what is going on right now (back to the post I quoted above). The trickle-up, side-ways, every-ways, economic losses are just beginning. The economy is like a giant set of dominoes, going off in all directions. It happened very quickly to certain industries (travel, entertainment, restaurants) but the true economic loss (and job loss) is just really beginning, especially because it looks like this is all (lockdowns, etc.) are going to be happening all over again in many places as we turn to fall.

Many of the small and even medium businesses that depend on foot traffic that have managed to survive to this point have been able to do so because of things like the PPP which allowed them to keep employees during the initial shutdown. That is over now, and business for many has not come back. They just squeaked through a few months with help, because everyone thought it was going to be over and done with and we'd be "back to normal" by now. What is happening is close to what people are describing is happening even at WDW - they blew through a lot of cash keeping people employed, admirably, but inadvertently those employees would have done a lot better and would be better off now if they had just been laid off to begin with as government benefits are (as of now) expired.

There is going to be a lot more job loss, a lot more businesses closing, and a lot more unemployed people, especially in any industry related to travel in any way, even tangentially. Business/convention travel is DEAD. DEAD as a doornail. And, *not* just because as COVID - it will not recover in any where near real form, most likely. Like many things, COVID has greatly accelerated what was already happening.

After the '08 economic crisis, people thought the same thing - that virtual meetings would take over, etc. It didn't happen, mostly because even then, technology wasn't that great. Devices weren't as ubiquitous (the iPhone had just been released, for reference). But the lockdowns FORCED people to quickly adapt, and a dozen years later - we are so much more connected and the technology is a lot better. Corporations around the world are realizing they don't need to spend millions of dollars a year shuttling people around on business trips when most of them were just for "face time". The days of being sent to a week-long conference in Vegas or Orlando for...pretty much anything, are over.

Of course, this all ties in to the tourist industry - everywhere - because most places (even Orlando) who have a large tourist industry also depend on business travel/conventions as part of their backbone due to the infrastructure/etc. Even if the tourist industry came back full-swing, the losses are enormous. Sure, Disney will somehow cope - but the rest of Orlando? Everyone from the off-site hotels, car services, restaurants, stores - the economic impact is just beginning. And this is happening in so many places in so many ways right now, to any town/city that is travel/tourism based (and that's a lot more than you think).

I've read here people talking about Vegas, and back to New England where I am the story is similar- all the coastal resort towns are being decimated. As I described above, many were able to make it into July because of various assistance or simply being able to weather the storm, holding out that they could rescue the summer. It isn't happening. The ultra-wealthy (the 1%) who own expensive property are here (most flying privately), but they are holed up in their estates and aren't out spending money locally except perhaps grocery delivery.

The other people who are here...aren't spending money. In one of the Vegas posts it was described best as the type of people who rent a cheap hotel, buy a bottle of booze from Walgreens, and then just hang around not spending money. It's just that the ones up here are from New York, and not California. The "normal" middle and upper class visitors who do spend money, who stay at nice places, who eat at nice restaurants every day, who use local services like taxis and such - the ones the majority of the money comes from - simply are not here. And given that most businesses in towns like these up and down the coast depends on these 12 - 16 weeks a year to be able to stay open through the winter...yeah, the economic impact is going to continue, and much of this business is not coming back, for at least a very long time.

Great post. Scary times for sure. I mean, there was a stretch where "recession proof job" took on a meaning no one could even fathom. Imagine telling dentists and physician assistants making $100k-300k+ starting that theyd have hours reduced or be furloughed but the kid at McDonalds was working OT like there was no tomorrow.

And while things may have "normalized" a bit now, that deck of cards is ready to fall. People are focused on the server like you said. But they're not thinking big picture. They're not thinking of the tech company that supports that server/restaurant's payment system. The sales/marketing team who sold them that payment system. The developers and tech people who maintain that payment system. People are thinking of the housekeeper at the hotel who may get laid off. But they're also not thinking of the account manager who sells them the linens. They're not thinking of the company that sells and designs their digital menus at the restaurant. They're not thinking of the company was scheduled to supply the hotel with all the thousands of feet of trim that the hotels new location was going to need, but now that project has been canceled.

The ripple effects here are...quite terrifying.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

If they don't want people coming why open at all?

I think there are multiple reasons from other parks opening to having some sort of revenue coming in to a multitude of other reasons. I don’t think they wanted to open just yet. They decided to dip the toes back in the water and figure things out as they go along.
They can’t even get to the minimum capacity that they set themselves. They could easily with discounts but won’t ever undercut themselves with 100 dollar rooms and 50 dollar tickets. They would be admitting to everyone that it’s no better then six flags. Which brings me back to the reason I don’t think they want crowds. Sure, want to pay those prices for a room? Ok they will take you.
Said this in another thread. My wife has cancelled 15 out of 15 trips she had set up for clients traveling August and September. Half of them cancelled outright, the other half want to just move to 2021. When trying to rebook them, she was told every time, no package discounts.. no specials.. nothing in the way of even a little bit of added enticement to get them to rebook.

 

[celluloid]

Just remember the Jungle Cruise sinking, Peoplemover accident and other poor maintenance examples when the money was good.

 

[Capsin4]

They don’t want people coming right now. That’s why rooms are rack rate, no free dining.. no discounts at all into next year. They will take anyone that’s willing to pay 700 bucks for a studio at OKW or SSR, if people are willing to pay that but that’s all they want in right now. It’s a different ballgame from 9/11.

They have room and ticket discounts for military. Just not as generous.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

They have room and ticket discounts for military. Just not as generous.

Didn’t know that, thanks!

 

[HongKongFooy]

The thought that "oh, Disney is just slow because people don't want to wear masks" idea is...preposterous. Those masks are the only reason they are even allowed to open.

Preposterous...Ok sure.

Mayan Riviera/Cancun is seeing a lot of bookings and travel.......no guest mask requirement at resorts. Volcano Bay is doing OK...way, way better than the 2 other parks which are ghost towns. Volcano Bay's activities don't require mask.

Preposterous..... If you say so.

 

[natatomic]

Preposterous...Ok sure.

Mayan Riviera/Cancun is seeing a lot of bookings and travel.......no guest mask requirement at resorts. Volcano Bay is doing OK...way, way better than the 2 other parks which are ghost towns. Volcano Bay's activities don't require mask.

Preposterous..... If you say so.

I tend to agree with you. The H2O water park is doing well, too. Much better than last summer (though it was brand new then).

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Great post. Scary times for sure. I mean, there was a stretch where "recession proof job" took on a meaning no one could even fathom. Imagine telling dentists and physician assistants making $100k-300k+ starting that theyd have hours reduced or be furloughed but the kid at McDonalds was working OT like there was no tomorrow.

And while things may have "normalized" a bit now, that deck of cards is ready to fall. People are focused on the server like you said. But they're not thinking big picture. They're not thinking of the tech company that supports that server/restaurant's payment system. The sales/marketing team who sold them that payment system. The developers and tech people who maintain that payment system. People are thinking of the housekeeper at the hotel who may get laid off. But they're also not thinking of the account manager who sells them the linens. They're not thinking of the company that sells and designs their digital menus at the restaurant. They're not thinking of the company was scheduled to supply the hotel with all the thousands of feet of trim that the hotels new location was going to need, but now that project has been canceled.

The ripple effects here are...quite terrifying.

I wonder if there will be exceptions to the rule...my husband is a flooring installer, and while his company did shut down for the mandatory closure, after two weeks, his company was able to get an exemption as an "essential business", and they've been crazy busy since about three weeks after the shut-down started. His work includes the gamut - new construction, apartments (including section 8), homes, lots of long-term care facilities (yes, the idiots running some of these places are still having outside workers come in...they never stopped), businesses, town/state buildings, schools, even boats. They actually expected a down-turn on the flooring side and alerted all the installers that they may be working on the restoration side (clean ups after floods, furnace blow-backs, bio-hazards, etc) and odd hours to boot if the flooring side of the business slowed down, but it never did...he's still been working OT (not a lot...it would be far more, but the boss doesn't want to pay OT, so they limit it and juggle jobs to avoid it).

 

[SoFloMagic]

If they don't want people coming why open at all?

So they can collect AP and DVC dues and have lots of pictures of empty parks so people equate WDW with safety.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

They don’t want people coming right now. That’s why rooms are rack rate, no free dining.. no discounts at all into next year. They will take anyone that’s willing to pay 700 bucks for a studio at OKW or SSR, if people are willing to pay that but that’s all they want in right now. It’s a different ballgame from 9/11.

No

 

[HongKongFooy]

I'm not done with the preposterous claim.......

Atlantis in Bahamas is doing just fine right now and its Cove has sold out the random days I checked.

No guest mask requirement there.

 

[Lilofan]

Great post. Scary times for sure. I mean, there was a stretch where "recession proof job" took on a meaning no one could even fathom. Imagine telling dentists and physician assistants making $100k-300k+ starting that theyd have hours reduced or be furloughed but the kid at McDonalds was working OT like there was no tomorrow.

And while things may have "normalized" a bit now, that deck of cards is ready to fall. People are focused on the server like you said. But they're not thinking big picture. They're not thinking of the tech company that supports that server/restaurant's payment system. The sales/marketing team who sold them that payment system. The developers and tech people who maintain that payment system. People are thinking of the housekeeper at the hotel who may get laid off. But they're also not thinking of the account manager who sells them the linens. They're not thinking of the company that sells and designs their digital menus at the restaurant. They're not thinking of the company was scheduled to supply the hotel with all the thousands of feet of trim that the hotels new location was going to need, but now that project has been canceled.

The ripple effects here are...quite terrifying.

Those folks furloughed or laid off that were making $100K - $300K annually and above lived that lifestyle month to month ( I know some ) . To be furloughed and making unemployment earnings is very difficult. That rainy day savings would come in handy if they had some. There may be some foreclosed homes/condos in nicer neighborhoods in the near future.