First, obligitory "OMG it's
@PhotoDave219 !
@mkt !
@ParentsOf4 !" - it kind of feels like Old Home Week. Or, more accurately, it feels like one of those milestone times when you only see certain people - the whole "we only see each other at weddings and funerals these days," and let's face it...this ain't a wedding.
There were probably 30+ posts in this thread that I wanted to reply while reading the entire thing, but this one above speaks as close to anything to the reality of this situation, and this is the first chance I have had. When I read some of these posts thinking that pretty much
anything is going back to normal any time even remotely soon is in the "denial" mode of acceptance.
The thought that "oh, Disney is just slow because people don't want to wear masks" idea is...preposterous. Those masks are the only reason they are even allowed to open.
There seems to be some, er, regional differences in what folks are reporting here. So for the record, I'm in the north east (New England) - which, unless something has changed, is pretty much Disney's top market (and I believe someone else verified this a few pages ago).
What I can tell you, we are still taking this very seriously here. Sure, there is the odd crazy "oh this is all overblown!" bracket, but masks are still a fact of life. Just grocery shopping is still a major event - and we still are having hit and miss days in what is stocked (lately, you can find toilet paper OR paper towels, but for some reason, almost no matter where you rarely find both, and if they do, it's just one or two brands). An exceptional trip out would be to actually sit down at an outdoor restaurant, where everyone including staff is masked unless you are sitting at a table.
With all this going on - if you looked at most people and said, "You know what, I'm going to Disney World!" they would look at you like
you were insane. Florida is in the running for hot spot of the world, and going to such a notoriously public place as a theme park, Walt Disney World, of all places. I mean, they utterly wouldn't believe you and would think you were joking.
Even best case scenario, even if some miracle vaccine gets released, sure, more people would come - but there are a lot of people who still wouldn't even consider coming for years, even then. There is also so much we still do not know, as well - sure, you might not die if you get it, but we are just finding out that even those that recover have lasting effects and we have no idea which of them may turn out to be long-term. Many people are not willing to risk this, particularly for something as frivolous as Disney.
Now, that part aside - I also don't think everyone understands economically what is going on right now (back to the post I quoted above). The trickle-up, side-ways, every-ways, economic losses are just beginning. The economy is like a giant set of dominoes, going off in all directions. It happened very quickly to certain industries (travel, entertainment, restaurants) but the true economic loss (and job loss) is just really beginning, especially because it looks like this is all (lockdowns, etc.) are going to be happening all over again in many places as we turn to fall.
Many of the small and even medium businesses that depend on foot traffic that have managed to survive to this point have been able to do so because of things like the PPP which allowed them to keep employees during the initial shutdown. That is over now, and business for many has not come back. They just squeaked through a few months with help, because everyone thought it was going to be over and done with and we'd be "back to normal" by now. What is happening is close to what people are describing is happening even at WDW - they blew through a lot of cash keeping people employed, admirably, but inadvertently those employees would have done a lot better and would be better off now if they had just been laid off to begin with as government benefits are (as of now) expired.
There is going to be a lot more job loss, a lot more businesses closing, and a lot more unemployed people, especially in any industry related to travel in any way, even tangentially. Business/convention travel is DEAD. DEAD as a doornail. And, *not* just because as COVID - it
will not recover in any where near real form, most likely. Like many things, COVID has greatly
accelerated what was already happening.
After the '08 economic crisis, people thought the same thing - that virtual meetings would take over, etc. It didn't happen, mostly because even then, technology wasn't that great. Devices weren't as ubiquitous (the iPhone had just been released, for reference). But the lockdowns FORCED people to quickly adapt, and a dozen years later - we are so much more connected and the technology is a lot better. Corporations around the world are realizing they don't need to spend millions of dollars a year shuttling people around on business trips when most of them were just for "face time". The days of being sent to a week-long conference in Vegas or Orlando for...pretty much anything, are over.
Of course, this all ties in to the tourist industry - everywhere - because most places (even Orlando) who have a large tourist industry also depend on business travel/conventions as part of their backbone due to the infrastructure/etc. Even if the tourist industry came back full-swing, the losses are enormous. Sure, Disney will somehow cope - but the rest of Orlando? Everyone from the off-site hotels, car services, restaurants, stores - the economic impact is just beginning. And this is happening in so many places in so many ways right now, to any town/city that is travel/tourism based (and that's a lot more than you think).
I've read here people talking about Vegas, and back to New England where I am the story is similar- all the coastal resort towns are being decimated. As I described above, many were able to make it into July because of various assistance or simply being able to weather the storm, holding out that they could rescue the summer. It isn't happening. The ultra-wealthy (the 1%) who own expensive property are here (most flying privately), but they are holed up in their estates and aren't out spending money locally except perhaps grocery delivery.
The other people who are here...aren't spending money. In one of the Vegas posts it was described best as the type of people who rent a cheap hotel, buy a bottle of booze from Walgreens, and then just hang around not spending money. It's just that the ones up here are from New York, and not California. The "normal" middle and upper class visitors who do spend money, who stay at nice places, who eat at nice restaurants every day, who use local services like taxis and such - the ones the majority of the money comes from - simply are not here. And given that most businesses in towns like these up and down the coast depends on these 12 - 16 weeks a year to be able to stay open through the winter...yeah, the economic impact is going to continue, and much of this business is not coming back, for at least a very long time.
