OC Register - Disneyland and Universal Studios ask Newsom not to finalize theme park reopening plans just yet

[TP2000]

I had to Google the size of both Singapore and Hong Kong, after visiting both places a few times in my life. They are wonderful places to visit!

But just so folks realize, they are small city-states on oceanfront peninsulas that have very tightly controlled borders, and a very different culture and framework of laws than America.

Orange County = 948 Square Miles, 3.2 Million People, 2 Disney Theme Parks
Hong Kong = 427 Square Miles, 7.5 Million People, 1 Disney Theme Park
Singapore = 278 Square Miles, 5.6 Million People, No Disney Theme Park

While I completely understand your valid point on Covid transmission rates in Singapore and Hong Kong @Travel Junkie, I really hesitate to use them as examples for what might be possible here in Southern California and/or the USA.

 

[OrlandoRising]

View attachment 503978
Maybe it's actual data that is downplaying the pandemic. Disneyland voluntarily closed when they thought the mortality rate was around 9%. Now that we know it's far less than 0.1% overall, the conspiracy theorists are the people like you trying to gaslight everyone else into still thinking this is Armageddon.

This will probably get removed, since fact checks on misleading claims like this are getting removed a lot quicker than the misleading claim itself.

The figures quoted here from a conservative TV station in San Diego are cherry-picked figures from CDC computer modeling to pre-test plans for containing the pandemic. The station selected the lowest rates out of five test-case scenarios and ignored the disclaimer that came with it: "The parameters in the scenarios:
Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning.
Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.
Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions."

The "survival rate" is difficult to calculate due to not knowing the exact number of cases, thanks to asymptomatic spread, and the likelihood that deaths were undercounted in February and March. It also does not reflect advances in treatment since the pandemic began that would lower the death rate. It also ignores the potential of long-term problems of those who survive. Nor does it address how that rate would be affected if the virus was allowed to spread without any mitigation strategies, as people on this forum repeatedly advocate for.

Most importantly, what sounds like a very high survival rate can still result in a massive death toll. From the AP: "Though scientists have estimated that fewer than 1% of all COVID-19 infections result in death, the virus has claimed more than 847,000 lives worldwide."

 

[DLR92]

Even if Disneyland and other open with limited capacity...will they make money? Will CA allow indoor attraction to operate even with how Tokyo Disneyland operate their new guidelines with indoor attractions?

I’m one of the few people who thinks it should remain closed like churches.

 

[Tamandua]

This will probably get removed, since fact checks on misleading claims like this are getting removed a lot quicker than the misleading claim itself.

The figures quoted here from a conservative TV station in San Diego are cherry-picked figures from CDC computer modeling to pre-test plans for containing the pandemic. The station selected the lowest rates out of five test-case scenarios and ignored the disclaimer that came with it: "The parameters in the scenarios:
Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning.
Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.
Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions."

The "survival rate" is difficult to calculate due to not knowing the exact number of cases, thanks to asymptomatic spread, and the likelihood that deaths were undercounted in February and March. It also does not reflect advances in treatment since the pandemic began that would lower the death rate. It also ignores the potential of long-term problems of those who survive. Nor does it address how that rate would be affected if the virus was allowed to spread without any mitigation strategies, as people on this forum repeatedly advocate for.

Most importantly, what sounds like a very high survival rate can still result in a massive death toll. From the AP: "Though scientists have estimated that fewer than 1% of all COVID-19 infections result in death, the virus has claimed more than 847,000 lives worldwide."

So basically you call it misleading and then state that it's impossible to know the actual numbers. These aren't unreasonable estimates. Studies in different areas have shown antibodies in anywhere from 6-24 times the number of confirmed cases, and that was a while back. Cases have only increased in time since.

The CDC has stated that actual cases are estimated at 10x confirmed cases. In California, that's roughly 8.4 million cases. Let's be very conservative and say it's 4 million cases. We'll cut the number to under a half of the estimate. Deaths in California to date are 16,395 (a lot of these deaths are disputed but we won't worry about that here). That's about a 0.41% mortality rate. That is being extremely, extremely conservative. We thought it was 9% in March. Now even extremely conservative estimates have it well under half a percent.

These are estimates, but we know enough to know that shutting down the entire state is not a smart strategy. This should be a targeted effort to protect vulnerable populations.

 

[George Lucas on a Bench]

 

[TP2000]

View attachment 504027

I mean seriously, is this Anaheim or is it the Alps? I can't tell.

 

[Travel Junkie]

While I would take any information from Communist China with a giant rock of salt, the Singapore and Hong Kong examples are interesting because they are basically compact city-states that have shut themselves off from the world for the past six months.

It is still impossible for any foreigner to fly into either Hong Kong or Singapore right now. They are both sealed off and inaccessible to average civilians.

I know people are skeptical of the numbers I have a lot of friends and contacts over there from my time living there. The numbers are pretty accurate currently. At the beginning? Not so much, but now the economy is back up. They would not be able to hide it, if the case numbers were higher. People are out and about too much for them to hide an outbreak if it was happening.

California, meanwhile, has no such restrictions on interstate travel among the 330 Million other Americans. The land borders with Canada and Mexico are open, but are officially limited to "essential travel" for students, trucking, family visits, etc. It's easy to get around that requirement by just claiming you are enterting the US for an "essential" reason at our land borders.

While I completely understand your valid point on Covid transmission rates in Singapore and Hong Kong @Travel Junkie, I really hesitate to use them as examples for what might be possible here in Southern California and/or the USA.

There are definitely differences and every place is unique. However I think we could learn a few things from some of the places that are having more success. I think it is telling that countries that have opened their borders to foreigners are specifically saying no Americans because of how the virus was handled here. While California and the US is different than other countries, we could be doing much much better than we have and are doing. Newsom has been one of the few Governors that has taken an approach more in line with what has succeeded in other places. However CA never got down to the low case numbers of those other places so that things could open back up.

Are really low case numbers possible here? Sure, but that would mean a lot nationally and locally would have to change. So you maybe right, but in a sobering way. America could have chosen a different path, but it hasn't yet and probably never will. There was never a true commitment. We will probably always have to live with higher infection and death numbers than other countries.

With all that being said, I believe Newsom is fighting against the reality of the situation. You need nearly 100% buy in to get what he wanted to achieve. He never got it and never will. I believe he has done a good job overall and being one of the first to shutdown saved CA from having a massive initial outbreak like New York, Italy, and Spain.

Tokyo and Japan are something else entirely, but that's because it's a fabulous country!

Agreed. Hopeful to get back there soon.

 

[DLR92]

I know people are skeptical of the numbers I have a lot of friends and contacts over there from my time living there. The numbers are pretty accurate currently. At the beginning? Not so much, but now the economy is back up. They would not be able to hide it, if the case numbers were higher. People are out and about too much for them to hide an outbreak if it was happening.



There are definitely differences and every place is unique. However I think we could learn a few things from some of the places that are having more success. I think it is telling that countries that have opened their borders to foreigners are specifically saying no Americans because of how the virus was handled here. While California and the US is different than other countries, we could be doing much much better than we have and are doing. Newsom has been one of the few Governors that has taken an approach more in line with what has succeeded in other places. However CA never got down to the low case numbers of those other places so that things could open back up.

Are really low case numbers possible here? Sure, but that would mean a lot nationally and locally would have to change. So you maybe right, but in a sobering way. America could have chosen a different path, but it hasn't yet and probably never will. There was never a true commitment. We will probably always have to live with higher infection and death numbers than other countries.

With all that being said, I believe Newsom is fighting against the reality of the situation. You need nearly 100% buy in to get what he wanted to achieve. He never got it and never will. I believe he has done a good job overall and being one of the first to shutdown saved CA from having a massive initial outbreak like New York, Italy, and Spain.




Agreed. Hopeful to get back there soon.

The problem is most Americans were never taken serious of the virus. People in my city think this virus is a hoax for the government to gain more power control ( very conservative town)!!!

Compared to other countries like Japan, Korea where they faced many pandemic, they know how to handle it since it more open minded, more densely populated. I don’t think the US will ever curtail the numbers of outbreak. US will be the only developed county with high death of this pandemic. And that is SAD!

 

[TP2000]

Welp, gang... it's 4pm on a Friday in Sacramento and our elected leaders and bureaucrats have now gone home for the weekend. No guidelines have been released to reopen California's theme parks. Disneyland is still closed.

Maybe check back on Monday? Have a great weekend friends!

 

[1HAPPYGHOSTHOST]

Welp, gang... it's 4pm on a Friday in Sacramento and our elected leaders and bureaucrats have now gone home for the weekend. No guidelines have been released to reopen California's theme parks. Disneyland is still closed.

Maybe check back on Monday? Have a great weekend friends!

Train is right on time like clock work. Favorite post of the week. Ages like a fine wine.

 

[Tamandua]

You know we must have inconsistencies in everything, it wouldn't be California without them.

But as it turns out, this might all be all be over with very soon, possibly as early as today:
https://blog.electkevinkiley.com/todays-hearing-in-our-case-against-newsom-2/

If the judge rules against Newsom, it would invalidate all of his emergency orders effective immediately.

If it goes that way, all of the tiers disappear and all businesses (including theme parks), churches, schools, etc. could reopen immediately with or without any mask requirement, social distancing etc. at their discretion. Counties have only been able to implement restrictions beyond the normal 30-60 day limit due to his emergency orders, so even the counties couldn't do anything about it.

They are expecting a ruling "this week", well considering this week is almost over, that doesn't leave much time. I am wondering if the judge might be waiting until 4:59 PM to prevent Newsom from filing for an injunction or something preventing the ruling from taking effect immediately.

If the judge did something like this, I would strongly encourage all theme parks to fully reopen as fast as possible, as it will be a lot harder to try to shut them down again once reopened and guess what, there would be no guidelines needed.

I am not too overly optimistic, but it would be awesome if the tide finally started turning against this mess and got people back to work.

Looks like Newsom lost the first round and it's heading to trial.

 

[OrlandoRising]

So basically you call it misleading and then state that it's impossible to know the actual numbers. These aren't unreasonable estimates. Studies in different areas have shown antibodies in anywhere from 6-24 times the number of confirmed cases, and that was a while back. Cases have only increased in time since.

The CDC has stated that actual cases are estimated at 10x confirmed cases. In California, that's roughly 8.4 million cases. Let's be very conservative and say it's 4 million cases. We'll cut the number to under a half of the estimate. Deaths in California to date are 16,395 (a lot of these deaths are disputed but we won't worry about that here). That's about a 0.41% mortality rate. That is being extremely, extremely conservative. We thought it was 9% in March. Now even extremely conservative estimates have it well under half a percent.

These are estimates, but we know enough to know that shutting down the entire state is not a smart strategy. This should be a targeted effort to protect vulnerable populations.

It is very much misleading to take the low end of a CDC modeling estimate, ignore the disclaimer attached to it explaining what it really means, and then present it as the absolute, proven number.

Antibody studies do not change the death toll. Nor is the death toll inflated or even in dispute by anyone with legitimate scientific credentials, as you suggest. You should know better than to make that ridiculous claim about comorbidities that's been debunked everywhere.

The actual CDC-estimated mortality rate (and best you can get right now is an estimate) is 0.65%. That would be 6.5 times worse than the flu.

I can find no record of any health authority suggesting in March that the mortality rate was 9%. On March 11, Dr. Fauci pegged at somewhere around 1%. The mortality rate is not some unmovable figure set in stone, either; it will go up or down depending on many variables, including how we're identifying more cases than in March and doctors may know more about treatment.

The "protect vulnerable population" strategy is another word for the "natural herd immunity" strategy, is based on the false premise that extensive lockdowns will be instituted until a vaccine becomes available, when in reality, there have not been extensive lockdowns in the U.S. for months. It would also result in a much higher death toll, possibly overload hospitals, and may not even confer lasting immunity.

 

[George Lucas on a Bench]

Welp, gang. It's quarter to six on a beautiful Friday night in Anaheim where Disneyland is still closed and there's really nothing to do but go to Downtown Disney and shop in a depressing warehouse building for unsold seasonal junk, we all hope Ling Ling Chang wins re-election and that the Mail-In Ballots aren't disposed of in an "Isneyland" trash bin, and I've had far too many shots of bourbon from a silvenir Universal Studios Florida shot glass. The courts are now going ahead with this case against Gav Gav and the seemingly determined fate of Disneyland theme parks is once again in question.

 

[planodisney]

The problem is most Americans were never taken serious of the virus. People in my city think this virus is a hoax for the government to gain more power control ( very conservative town)!!!

Compared to other countries like Japan, Korea where they faced many pandemic, they know how to handle it since it more open minded, more densely populated. I don’t think the US will ever curtail the numbers of outbreak. US will be the only developed county with high death of this pandemic. And that is SAD!

Not to point you out specifically, because a lot of people are wrong the same way you are, but you’re taking facts, and one specifically that isn’t true, and coming to completely wrong assumptions. None of those countries have the cultural issues we have. A minority population that has been hit very hard, an extremely overweight population, a culture that isn’t inherently submissive to authority, individual states rights, a huge immigrant population and on and on........
If you take other counties with like demographics and cultural similarities the covid numbers are very similar to ours.
Now, nobody, and I wish Democrats would stop saying this, nobody thinks the ACTUAL virus is a hoax. A hoax means it doesn’t exist. What people were referring to as a hoax was the REACTION. Creating as much despair, fear and economic hardship as possible in order to gain back lost political power.
Im not saying I subscribe to this belief, though the virus has unquestionably been used for political gain, and we didn’t need to paralyze our economy as we have, but the pandemic numbers aren’t pretty.
Im holding out judgement until after the election to judge if the media and political left reaction has been a hoax or if they do live in this much fear. I shutter to think of the media a political reaction now if we were facing what we faced in the 1940’s.
“We have nothing to fear but fear itself,” would be ridiculed and demonized and blamed for causing the death of thousands of soldiers.

 

[Figments Friend]

View attachment 504010

And now not only is the missing 'D' sticker back in the logo, but the trash containers' door is now properly fastened open in a Covid preventitive manner to allow germ free disposal without multiple hands touching it.


You know...
This trash can has made more progress in the last few days then the State of California has in regards to Theme Park regulations in the last few months.

This mere trash can has set an example for local California government.
Perhaps they too will find their missing 'D' and open themselves up to others.

-

 

[Figments Friend]

Welp, gang... it's 4pm on a Friday in Sacramento and our elected leaders and bureaucrats have now gone home for the weekend. No guidelines have been released to reopen California's theme parks. Disneyland is still closed.

Maybe check back on Monday? Have a great weekend friends!

It's a three day weekend, TP.
You are forgetting about 'Columbus Day' ( or by its alternative name, Indigenous People's Day ).
Or is that not a 'bank holiday' in California?

So Tuesday is when we will be getting more verbal shots fired in this never ending saga.
Disneyland will still be closed....alas.


-

 

[MarvelCharacterNerd]

That last sentence from Six Flags sticks out. Apparently the state bureaucrats in Sacramento haven't even visited the theme parks to see how they operate and the changes they've made for Covid.

This was the same frustration the nail industry had with Sacramento. They were trying to get leadership from the Board of Cosmetology to visit their salons to see the changes and investments made, and no one would even return their emails and calls. It was just complete radio silence from Sacramento.

Sacramento apparently doesn't like to do field trips that take them out of their office buildings.

Visit a THEME PARK? How vulgar!

 

[Gottalovepluto]

It's a three day weekend, TP.
You are forgetting about 'Columbus Day' ( or by its alternative name, Indigenous People's Day ).
Or is that not a 'bank holiday' in California?

So Tuesday is when we will be getting more verbal shots fired in this never ended saga.
Disneyland will still be closed....alas.


-

Some schools take off Indigenous Persons Day. The rest of us in California basically don’t even realize Columbus Day is a holiday people take off elsewhere unless we need a bank for something...

 

[Figments Friend]

Some schools take off Indigenous Persons Day. The rest of us in California basically don’t even realize Columbus Day is a holiday people take off elsewhere unless we need a bank for something...

I'm sure those local government officials have the day off.


-

 

[Darkbeer1]

Hey, Monday is Thanksgiving.... Hoser Thanksgiving, eh?

And no CFL game