NextGen Deep Impact

[Disneyhead'71]

Of course if DHS had another ride for the toddler set, TSMM wouldn't have the issues it has. I mean DHS only has 6 rides.

 

[flynnibus]

They're killing a fly with a sledghammer, IMO.

I can agree to that in some part if you were only looking at FP vs FP+ - but NextGen extends way beyond that.

I mean... in an alternate world.. Disney could have just made FP electronic and made it so you could 'collect' a FP via smartphone instead of crossing the park to get one.. and let you pick from available return times. But we'd still have the arguments over 'thats not fair.. what about people without smartphones..' - and it would go on adnauseum. The current FP system certainly could stand an overhaul.. I for one am going to look at the improvements, and wait to see what negatives Disney does apply.. not get upset over things they possibly COULD do.

By giving Disney our phone numbers and addresses.. they could be putting us on constant solicitation calls, and door to door guys... but they don't. Just because something is possible doesn't mean the company will do it or it makes sense to do it.

 

[Longhairbear]

I can agree to that in some part if you were only looking at FP vs FP+ - but NextGen extends way beyond that.

I mean... in an alternate world.. Disney could have just made FP electronic and made it so you could 'collect' a FP via smartphone instead of crossing the park to get one.. and let you pick from available return times. But we'd still have the arguments over 'thats not fair.. what about people without smartphones..' - and it would go on adnauseum. The current FP system certainly could stand an overhaul.. I for one am going to look at the improvements, and wait to see what negatives Disney does apply.. not get upset over things they possibly COULD do.

By giving Disney our phone numbers and addresses.. they could be putting us on constant solicitation calls, and door to door guys... but they don't. Just because something is possible doesn't mean the company will do it or it makes sense to do it.

So far my only thoughts about Next Gen/ FP+ is not getting up early while on vacation to score a FP. I've never done it, and never will. We are not Commando guests, and like to sleep in on vacation. We often don't get to the parks until after lunch. That said, my problem is park hours. Sure I could get up early and spend 8 hours in any given park, but I choose not to. I'd love FP+ if the parks stayed open later so I could reserve a FP+ at 10:15 PM on my fave premium attraction. Conversely, I might have to micromanage my vacation down to the hour if the parks close at 7 PM. But I don't like micromanaging my vacation.
Another positive to Next Gen, is that when they crunch all the numbers and data they find me. "Hey this guy never goes to the parks until after lunch at Olivia's at OKW from the data we mined off his wristband. He spent nothing in the parks that closed at 7, but rode Maelstrom in EPCOT at 8:30 PM, and bought some chocolate in the gift shop. At 10 P.M. he bought some Smirnoff at OKW, and records show he unlocked his DVC room door at 10:10 PM. His wristband had no activity until the next morning at the OKW gift shop when he purchased some Pop Tarts. Maybe we can get this guy to spend more money in the parks, and at OKW if we keep the parks open later? Our data shows he lives in CA, and used his DVC points at the DLH 2 months ago, and on the nights DL was open until midnight, he spent $60.00 having tropical drinks, and souvenir mugs at Trader Sam's at DLH, twice. That's better than the bar of chocolate, and 16 buck bottle of vodka he spent at WDW."

 

[Longhairbear]

Below is my theory on how Next Gen improves WDW financials (assuming FP+ remains "free" as we've been told):

• Improve hotel occupancy rates – If guests staying at Deluxe Resorts (for example) get 4 extra FP+ per day, Moderate Resorts get 2 extra FP+ per day, and Value Resorts get 1 extra FP+ per day that they can book in advance, this encourages offsite guests to stay onsite and encourages onsite guests to upgrade their hotel. There's only a finite number of desirable FP+ for (for example) TSM. Use these "good" FP+ to lure guests onsite. Tie in ADRs to FP+. Either set aside some prime ADRs for onsite guests or allow onsite guests to book their ADRs sooner. (Think Deluxe Resort guests booking ADRs 6 months in advance, Moderate 5 months, Value 4 months, and everyone else 3 months.) As a result of these initiatives, WDW hotel occupancy rates should improve, with more people staying at the very expensive (and very profitable) Deluxe Resorts. Operating expenses for hotels with 90% occupancy are not much more than hotels with 70% occupancy. Filling unoccupied rooms in existing hotels has a tremendous profit margin.
• Eliminate Extra Magic Hours – EMHs are an enormous operating expense. Considerable money could be saved by getting rid of these. With a multi-tiered FP+ system for onsite guests during regular park hours, EMHs are no longer needed. Hugh savings for WDW.
• Reduce or eliminate "Free Dining" and "Room Only" discounts - Bob Iger has stated that the public needs to be weaned off “Free Dining” and “Room Only” discounts. A multi-tiered perks system built around Next Gen might be a way to do this. Onsite guests get more FP+, better ADRs, and preferred viewing. Deluxe Resort guests get more than Moderate or Value Resort guests. As a result, WDW no longer needs to offer as many discounts if guests have stronger incentives to stay onsite, especially since these incentives require minimal opex. Possibly offer "bonus" FP+ during slower seasons as a way to increase onsite and/or offsite attendance.
• Increase guest spending - Spend $200 at the Emporium; get rewarded with a "bonus" FP+. Book a Keys To the Kingdom Tour; get a "bonus" FP+. The possibilities are endless. FP+ is "free" but it's "more free" for those who spend more. And it's possible because Next Gen is an integrated system, unifying guest spending with more traditional WDW "experiences". Disney can use FP+ as a sort of Pavlov's Dog experiment to produce the behavior they want (i.e. more spending).
• Price increases – Of course. Just like they did when they switched to the Magic Your Way ticket system, WDW almost certainly has plans to repackage some things and then charge more for essentially the same service.

None of these have to do with hoping guests spend more money with all their "free time" (something that didn't work with FP) or using the data mined information for targeted advertising (although this might happen). Instead, if it works, what I postulate gets the consumer to spend more before they ever arrive, encourages them to spend more after they arrive, and reduces cost in obvious ways.


The beauty of the FP+/NextGen system is that its benefits can be tweaked by changing a few input variables. Not enough guests staying at Deluxe Resorts? Increase their number of FP+ while reducing the numbers allocated to everyone else. Tweaking this model is essentially free, which means TDO can experiment with all sorts of combinations before settling on one that generates the most revenue.

By adding attractions, dining, viewing areas, and meet & greets to FP+, TDO has taken absolute control over everyone's WDW experience.

I just hope I'm wrong.

When the wristbands can be customized for an upcharge. Retro Mickey watch, Goofy, Little Mermaid, and other styled wristbands. And let's not stop at wristbands. RFID Poison apples for an upcharge. A fairy wand, or a Star Wars Light Saber you can own, and recharge on every visit for Next Gen.

 

[awilliams4]

The reason people are saying it is a failure or a mess is because at this stage in the game it is already a logistics nightmare that no one was truly prepared for. Not an opinion...not a feeling...a true fact!

How can it be a fact when it hasn't even went live yet?

 

[Lee]

How can it be a fact when it hasn't even went live yet?

It's in the live testing phase. Has been for a few weeks.
From what I hear...hasn't gone all that well.

 

[awilliams4]

It's in the live testing phase. Has been for a few weeks.
From what I hear...hasn't gone all that well.

Hasn't a lot of things not went well in the past during testing? Does that make it an automatic failure like Funmeister suggests?

 

[Lee]

Hasn't a lot of things not went well in the past during testing? Does that make it an automatic failure like Funmeister suggests?

Of course not.
Testing is the time to work out all the kinks and problems, if possible.

I'm just reporting what my sources are telling me. They're using words like "nightmare" and "confusing" and "headache" and "waste of money." None of which surprises me in the least.

 

[twebber55]

Of course not.
Testing is the time to work out all the kinks and problems, if possible.

I'm just reporting what my sources are telling me. They're using words like "nightmare" and "confusing" and "headache" and "waste of money." None of which surprises me in the least.

not exactly the catch phrases that we want to hear

 

[Funmeister]

It's in the live testing phase. Has been for a few weeks.
From what I hear...hasn't gone all that well.

What Lee said.

 

[nytimez]

not exactly the catch phrases that we want to hear

I want to hear them more - so much more than the company is forced to scrap the whole thing.

 

[twebber55]

I want to hear them more - so much more than the company is forced to scrap the whole thing.

lol good point....wonder if they feel they cant go back now

 

[nytimez]

lol good point....wonder if they feel they cant go back now

They're definitely in way too deep. That was just wishful thinking on my part.

 

[bugsbunny]

Im not seeing the roi on this. Stay at a deluxe and get more fastpasses as an incentive? Uh most average visitors can barely afford a value every couple of years. I cant imagine paying $300 more per night just to get 3 more fastpasses i have to schedule 6 months in advance. Other than die hards like us most dont evrn know abot adr's. Its all about more money for wdw, not guest experience.

 

[bugsbunny]

So in the end, wdw has me paying more so I get the added value of micromanaging my vacation? And if I don't stay on property, I can't use my regular ticket tlc take advantage? I hope that is not the case.

 

[HenryMystic]

They're killing a fly with a sledghammer, IMO.

Love this!

 

[GoofGoof]

Think of it this way. WDW has about 10,000 Deluxe Resort rooms. Total room occupancy is 78%. Let's assume it's really low for Deluxe Resorts, say 60%. That means 6000 families already are spending big bucks to stay at the Deluxe Resorts. Every day. A few extra FP+ might be just enough to get a couple of thousand Moderate Resort families to upgrade to Deluxe Resorts. A few less FP+ might be enough to get a couple of thousand Value Resort guests to upgrade to Moderate Resorts. Ditto offsite.

Remember, FP+ is more than a bunch of attractions. It includes reserved viewing areas, scheduled meet & greets, and even ADRs. As noted here (http://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/...a-regular-fastpass.857164/page-5#post-5246972) by RSoxNo1, onsite guests are going to be able to book their FP+ before offsite guests.

Also realize that traditional FP is going away. The only way you'll avoid not stand in line for 2 hours at TSM is with a FP+. And the only way you'll be able to book a FP+ for TSM is to be an onsite guest.

Families who stay onsite are not getting FP+. They are getting back hours every day of their vacation.

You have to hand it to TDO. They are going to squeeze their "guests" for every penny they can.

Don't forget your theory that once FP+ becomes a "resort guest only" benefit they may phase out EMHs thus saving the money spent to open the parks early or stay open late. I know that's just a theory, but it would add to the return by reducing expense.

 

[Rasvar]

I'll be blunt. Nextgen will be a massive success to the back office operations if it can survive the development phase without becoming a bloated and unmanageable mess in its systems coding and operation. Its benefit to guests will have to be left to be seen. The data mining/analytics that the system is going to offer to managers and executives will be a gold mine if they can figure out how to use it. Some items will benefit guest experience. But lets get right to it, it is an operational improvement project. FP+ will be the revenue hammer but even bigger financial gains will be gathered from the everyday mundane data gathering the system, especially the wristbands, will permit. Retail is salivating buckets to get their hands on that data. Yes, the experience will end up being more tailored and more individualized for the guest. The ROI on this project is not from the guests as much as it will be in streamlining the operations if it reaches its operational potential.

 

[Rasvar]

Of course not.
Testing is the time to work out all the kinks and problems, if possible.

I'm just reporting what my sources are telling me. They're using words like "nightmare" and "confusing" and "headache" and "waste of money." None of which surprises me in the least.

This is the problem. Potential over the actual. The system itself is a bloody mess right now. They are making some improvements (the most recent software updates in the last two days have been major improvements to the guest interfaces). But it is going to drive the current staff insane because they want it to do so much from day one only making it a complex mess that one misplaced number or comma in so much code can be a disaster. I don't know if the system can ever meet the goal of what it is asked to do. If it does, the company will benefit in the long run. Just not a huge benefit when it comes to guest experience for the money being spent.

 

[wdwfan22]

Don't forget your theory that once FP+ becomes a "resort guest only" benefit they may phase out EMHs thus saving the money spent to open the parks early or stay open late. I know that's just a theory, but it would add to the return by reducing expense.

I myself only see them phasing out the evening magic hours. The morning ones can still be marketed as a perk for staying on-site.