NextGen Deep Impact

[nytimez]

I'll agree that watching some of these dolts use a computer is maddening, but you eventually have to let the electronically illiterate get swept away to move forward.

I would agree if the electronically illiterate were literally swept away if they couldn't figure out the machines...

 

[awilliams4]

Witnessed, obviously, by the report today from multiple sources (including basic agreement from this site's owner) that CM numbers are going to be going way up to manage the logistics of this system with no end date reported... Or if there will even be an end date of that management.

Good theory.

Those extra CMs have nothing to do with the long term cost savings associated with what I suggested. How long do you think companies plan on their investments to materialize? Overnight?

 

[BigThunderMatt]

How long do you think companies plan on their investments to materialize? Overnight?

With the way Disney treats any potential project based on its projected ROI, you'd certainly believe that was the case.

Actually, though, with Wizarding World (to Universal's extreme benefit), that kind of WAS the case.

 

[Funmeister]

I am not too worried as I just can't see them just putting a few at guest services. It would not surprise me to see them at every resort and nearly every current fastpass location.

I'll agree that watching some of these dolts use a computer is maddening, but you eventually have to let the electronically illiterate get swept away to move forward.

That brings to mind two things. First is the issue of how many locations they'll have for those without smartphones to access this stuff. If it's only a few machines at Guest Services, that could be a problem. On the other hand, if there's kiosks in each land/area, not too bad. Second, my experience watching people ahead of me try to use those machines at Pecos Bill's was not pleasant at all.

They are not installing multiple kiosks like you see with quick service dining. The machines would have already been on site at this point.

There will be "mobile kiosks" floating around the parks to assist you.

 

[Funmeister]

Witnessed, obviously, by the report today from multiple sources (including basic agreement from this site's owner) that CM numbers are going to be going way up to manage the logistics of this system with no end date reported... Or if there will even be an end date of that management.

Good theory.

Awilliams4 you are correct in that thinking if guests were familiar with all of the technology and new policies being implemented. The problem is they are not educated and it is a challenge to educate and train millions of people annually on how to use it.

This problem is mind numbing enough to make you go "plaid." THAT is the answer to the problem!

 

[Funmeister]

With the way Disney treats any potential project based on its projected ROI, you'd certainly believe that was the case.

Actually, though, with Wizarding World (to Universal's extreme benefit), that kind of WAS the case.

More than you think. Disney did not get an immediate ROI on Disney Quest which is why Chicago was shut down, Philly and Miami were abruptly cancelled.

 

[MichWolv]

They are not installing multiple kiosks like you see with quick service dining. The machines would have already been on site at this point.

There will be "mobile kiosks" floating around the parks to assist you.

So that means CMs with iPads or similar devices, or something like that. Will they have carts or temporary podiums?

 

[Funmeister]

So that means CMs with iPads

No carts or podiums as of right now.

 

[EOD K9]

When is this supposed to roll out? How are we going to book in advance? Do we sign in and use our reservation or confirmation numbers? Anyone know? Thanks.

 

[MichWolv]

No carts or podiums as of right now.

Cool. I'll bring my iPad to the park, wear khakis, a polo shirt, and a nametag with a Mickey-head or something like that on it, and people will flock to me and hand me their RFID-enabled tickets. Mayhem will ensue.

 

[BigThunderMatt]

More than you think. Disney did not get an immediate ROI on Disney Quest which is why Chicago was shut down, Philly and Miami were abruptly cancelled.

I think the only reason they didn't close Orlando was because of the fact that Disney also has incredibly difficulty ever admitting they made a bad decision.

They're able to get away with announcing projects and then never building them because if nothing physical is created to stand as a reminder of its existence, it will eventually fade from the majority of public memory.

If Disney were to close DisneyQuest at DTD, it would be admitting that the concept was flawed from the outset, since it got built and has been operational as long as it has, despite the fact that the tech behind all of their signature games is woefully outdated.

 

[Lee]

Cool. I'll bring my iPad to the park, wear khakis, a polo shirt, and a nametag with a Mickey-head or something like that on it, and people will flock to me...

Hey, wait...is your name Lou?

 

[Brewmaster]

Below is my theory on how Next Gen improves WDW financials (assuming FP+ remains "free" as we've been told):

• Improve hotel occupancy rates – If guests staying at Deluxe Resorts (for example) get 4 extra FP+ per day, Moderate Resorts get 2 extra FP+ per day, and Value Resorts get 1 extra FP+ per day, this encourages offsite guests to stay onsite and encourages onsite guests to upgrade their hotel. There's only a finite number of desirable FP+ for (for example) TSM. Use these "good" FP+ to lure guests onsite. Tie in FP+ to ADRs. Either set aside some prime ADRs for onsite guests or allow these guests to book their ADRs sooner. (Think Deluxe Resort guests booking ADRs 6 months in advance, Moderate 5 months, Value 4 months, and everyone else 3 months.) As a result of these initiatives, WDW hotel occupancy rates should improve, with more people staying at the very expensive (and very profitable) Deluxe Resorts. Operating expenses for hotels with 90% occupancy are not much more than hotels with 70% occupancy. Filling unoccupied rooms in existing hotels has a tremendous profit margin.
• Eliminate Extra Magic Hours – EMHs are an enormous operating expense. Considerable money could be saved by getting rid of these. With a multi-tiered FP+ system for onsite guests during regular park hours, EMHs are no longer needed. Hugh savings for WDW.
• Reduce or eliminate "Free Dining" and "Room Only" discounts - Bob Iger has stated that the public needs to be weaned off “Free Dining” and “Room Only” discounts. A multi-tiered perks system built around Next Gen might be a way to do this. Onsite guests get more FP+, better ADRs, and preferred viewing. Deluxe Resort guests get more than Moderate or Value Resort guests. As a result, WDW no longer needs to offer as many discounts if guests have stronger incentives to stay onsite, especially since these incentives require minimal opex. Possibly offer "bonus" FP+ during slower seasons as a way to increase onsite and/or offsite attendance.
• Price increases – Of course. Just like they did when they switched to the Magic Your Way ticket system, WDW almost certainly has plans to repackage some things and then charge more for essentially the same service.

None of these have to do with hoping guests spend more money with all their "free time" (something that didn't work with FP) or using the data mined information for targeted advertising (although this might happen). Instead, if it works, what I postulate gets the consumer to spend more before they ever arrive while reducing cost in obvious ways.

The beauty of the FP+/NextGen system is that its benefits can be tweaked by changing a few input variables. Not enough guests staying at Deluxe Resorts? Increase their number of FP+ while reducing the numbers allocated to everyone else. Tweaking this model is essentially free, which means TDO can experiment with all sorts of combinations before settling on one that generates the most revenue.

By adding attractions, dining, viewing areas, and meet & greets to FP+, TDO has taken absolute control over everyone's WDW experience.

I just hope I'm wrong.

This is a well thought out and rational postulation, probably the best I've read so far. Anyone with an ounce of sense will admit that simply improving overall guest satisfaction (by way of RFID conveniences) is not enough to create the type of revenues TWDC is looking to achieve through this multi-billion dollar investment. However, by driving the guest towards specific bundled services they can (and will) have better control of how the guest spends their vacation dollar. Wrap it up in a "magical" technology sales pitch and you can convince the guest that TWDC simply (and benevolently) wants to make their vacation more effortless and carefree.

It's just too bad that this post will be shouted down as more evidence of "malcontent" and anti-Disney thought.

 

[BigThunderMatt]

TWDC simply (and benevolently) wants to make their vacation more effortless and carefree.

When in reality, it's pretty much the exact opposite...

 

[flynnibus]

funny how ROI is everyone's new favorite #1 thing Disney MUST have...

yet have no problem crapping on the company for not spending more and more and more in an attraction that in itself will never collect a dollar directly.

 

[Brewmaster]

funny how ROI is everyone's new favorite #1 thing Disney MUST have...

yet have no problem crapping on the company for not spending more and more and more in an attraction that in itself will never collect a dollar directly.

I would argue that TWDC spent quite a sum of money (wisely IMO) on an attraction in the DCA park that is helping that park collect many new dollars that would have otherwise been spent elsewhere.

 

[flynnibus]

I would argue that TWDC spent quite a sum of money (wisely IMO) on an attraction in the DCA park that is helping that park collect many new dollars that would have otherwise been spent elsewhere.

But do the math.. at nearly 300 million dollars.. plus ongoing costs. How long do you think before RSR even 'breaks even' - let alone get more money? Attractions boosts are only incremental.. and the dollars are only collected from OTHER points - not the attraction itself. A model people are happy to accept when talking about a ride. But use that logic against something like NextGen.. and people think it's snake oil.

People are so upset over Disney spending here.. but wouldn't blink if that dollar was spent on an attraction.. even if it was one they didn't like. Or how about a resturant? Or a new road? Or new signs?

ROI in Disney for many things is not measured in dollars collected directly by the investment. That's the point.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

People are asking how this is going to cost you more. But wasn't the very first implementation of the new RFID tech placing chips in cups to limit refills?

 

[Brewmaster]

ROI in Disney for many things is not measured in dollars collected directly by the investment. That's the point.

Agreed, in fact that statement is true for any/all business really. Personally, I fall into the camp that views this particular initiative's (NextGen) goal, at least a substantial component, to be an increase in dollars earned. This is what makes an investment this large such a risky gamble.

 

[GoofGoof]

My guess is that part of the nextgen budget included temporary CM staff level increases for this purpose. $1.5 billion still seems like a lot to me. Imagine how much park maintenance could have been accomplished with those extra heads. I know it's 2 totally different budgets, but still...