I'm not sure where you are getting your information from. Disney is not all that open with attendance numbers on any given day or year for that matter. Also:
I never said that the viewpoints were out of step, but, to say it the way that you are saying it as a general opinion that guests have. Sorry, that is neither logical nor provable at all. I have also stated that there are definable groups of people, mostly frequent visitors and thrill ride junkies that might have that opinion but to think it is a majority is a stretch.
WDW attendance sunk at different times of the year, yes.. but why is much more important then the fact that it did. To put it the way you did you are implying that it was because of some specific action that Disney did, either construction or some other negative happening. I don't think that is verifiable either.
How would the insiders know that satisfaction is tanking (if true at all) at WDW isn't for reasons that are unrelated to Disney at all.
My point right now is we have no way of knowing if what we think we know is real or not.
The only logical, non-disastrous reason for doing this is to even out the crowds levels, take the strain off MK and level the work load for CM's that have to be in those other parks with or without people. It also maybe to counteract the theory that everyone has heard that MK is the only park to go to because all the others are either dying on the vine or have nothing to do when you get there. All of this is untrue of course, but, offer a slightly discounted ticket, what is it about $10.+ per day, and get people to the other parks, out of MK and keep the staffing needed in the other parks. It really isn't enough to make a huge difference on the seasoned WDW traveler. Those of us usually already know what we want to do based on experience and not necessarily on the gloom and doom of a few posters on a website.
To your specific questions...
1) Most recently Spirit mentioned guest complaints and if I'm remembering right used the word "hammered" when referring to Customer Sat. As to how they could determine the customer sat of specific parks, simple. They have Disney Research Cast Members stationed at the entry/exit points of all Walt Disney World theme parks. I'm sure you've seen them. They conduct surveys on the guest's day and get feedback from them while in park. That doesn't even include the email surveys either. You can then compare any data you got from previous years of research to construe overall performance. Other metrics like customer complaints also are telling. This would not be reflective of all Walt Disney World, but gets a very accurate reflection of guest feeling in individual parks.
2) DHS is interesting situation, because it has some of the most popular rides but still is a terrible not worth the price offering. What content is there is actually pretty good, but there isn't enough of it. What's ironic is while cutting down on meaningful offerings they've advertised the heck out of it, and made sure people know that Star Wars is at the park with no name. That means guest expectation is going up with worse pay off.
I pointed at a park that Rasulo once said was a serious problem, that in fact was in a better overall place than our DHS. Food for thought.
3) I'm not saying all the attendance decline/softness is related to DHS, but it seems pretty reasonable to assume that having a terrible park may corralate to attendance softness just like adding to parks and improving offerings can improve attendance. Seems reasonable.
Though you are correct no definitive answer can be gained from the available data. That's why I was careful not to editorialize. I just put that fact out there and let everyone else decide what may or may not be happening.
4) The four parks should be able to equally draw guests naturally, instead of this artificial curation. That would mean they have several powerful offerings. That clearly is not the case. A shame really.
Though have you been to Epcot or DHS? Dead or dying on the vine sounds about right. No one says that about IoA. I wonder why?
It was pretty crowded in late October when we were there. Not summer packed, but good crowd levels.
Keep in mind DHS slashed available guest space, high capacity attractions, and other offerings. Parks tend to fill up faster when there's less space available to be.
