Your logic is correct, but it doesn't reflect current economic realities.
Disney has two (somewhat competing) goals that fall under the umbrella of what we're talking about:
- Convert an off-property guest to an on-property guest.
- Convert an on-property guest with a car to an on-property guest without a car.
The giant caveat is that
Walt Disney World Resort hotels are already operating at or near full capacity. They've been consistently hovering right around 90% occupancy for several consecutive years, and the 10% of room nights that aren't filled are typically random mid-week days that they're unable to sell individually. They absolutely want you to stay on site, but when on-site hotels are pretty darn close to full, their focus shifts to maximizing the guest spending of those folks who are already on property. They don't care that parking fees might make their on-property resorts slightly less appealing to off-property guests when the on-property resorts are so full that they wouldn't have anywhere to put the off-property guest if they decided to come on-property anyways.
You could still argue, using this logic, that:
WDW has been experiencing record attendance and, thus, their focus shifts to maximizing guest spending and that means charging for transportation.
My only real argument with all of this is your initial assertion that: "No way. Never. Not going to happen." - with regards to charging for transportation.
I'm glad that they don't. I hope that they keep it that way. (in a sense, I kind of agree with you) Never?? .. They're not, nor will they ever, even consider it??? I don't believe that. Especially considering their "charge them at every possibility" management style and you can see some parallels with other things that they used to not charge for and are charging for now.
Wasn't there a recent thread about charging a premium for FastPass+?? It's original intent was to keep guests out of line and spending money but, if you can charge for it
anyway...
I guess I don't understand why you think transportation is some kind of sacred entity that won't ever have a charge.
I'd even bet complimentary parking for resort guests at the parks goes away. If they're trying to establish "no cars" then there's no better way of doing that than charging for both resort parking and park parking. You could even argue it sort of has with charging for resort parking so why not double dip?
If you're management and you're going down this path of what you could charge for and how people slowly acclimate to not using their cars on-property, then it isn't a huge leap to say: "We're losing revenue from not charging people for parking (resort parking + park parking)!! We need to make that up via transportation fees! If they're coming on site and not using their car then the guest is just getting a literal "free ride" on our transportation! CHARGE THEM!" - I could totally see them having that kind of thought process and coming to that conclusion.