News New Gondola Transportation - Disney Skyliner -

[OG Runner]

"...and now, as you board your petri dish in the sky..."

Now can you say that with a deeper voice?

 

[senor_jorge]

Now can you say that with a deeper voice?

I'm not voice talent, but I do know a good screen printer.

 

[xdan0920]

Why are you making such a fuss over a single word? There have been many posters on this very thread who questioned the value of the gondola system and were convinced it would only have downsides such as increased resort rates, ruined sightlines, decreased bus frequencies, etc. I simply described that group of people as sceptics, which is a synonym for cynics.

The point of my post was not to start a discussion over a single word, but to state that Disney have not increased resort rack rates for 2019 due to the Skyliner.

It was just a confusing turn of phrase.

Plus your position is tenuous at best. The gondola isn’t open. Therefore we don’t know how resort costs will be impacted when it’s operational.

 

[TeriofTerror]

1. I was also interested to see if there would be a dramatic increase in the rack rates for resorts on the gondola line.
2. I was pleasantly surprised to see there was not.
3. I must unfortunately concur that it would not shock me to see a marked increase in the rates of those resorts in the future.
Fair?

 

[bhg469]

It was just a confusing turn of phrase.

Plus your position is tenuous at best. The gondola isn’t open. Therefore we don’t know how resort costs will be impacted when it’s operational.

Well... They're not going down! I hope the federal trade commission doesn't get wind of my inside info there!

 

[xdan0920]

1. I was also interested to see if there would be a dramatic increase in the rack rates for resorts on the gondola line.
2. I was pleasantly surprised to see there was not.
3. I must unfortunately concur that it would not shock me to see a marked increase in the rates of those resorts in the future.
Fair?

They can’t raise the prices for the gondola until the gondola is operational. You gonna raise the price at POP by 30% for let’s say, September 19. But then the gondola hits some delays and is not up and running. You have to wait. Even Disney has to make sure the system is finished and working before they start charging for it.

 

[TeriofTerror]

They can’t raise the prices for the gondola until the gondola is operational. You gonna raise the price at POP by 30% for let’s say, September 19. But then the gondola hits some delays and is not up and running. You have to wait. Even Disney has to make sure the system is finished and working before they start charging for it.

I am not arguing. It just wouldn't have surprised me to see Disney try.

 

[zakattack99]

I think what she's saying is that WDW doesn't have to wait until new features are open to raise resort rates. That said, as she points out, the rack rates for standard rooms for fall, 2019, have not yet been increased a crazy amount.

To verify that, I compared rates for CBR and CSR for the same week of October 2018 and 2019.
CBR 2018, $224. CBR 2019, $225.67.
CSR 2018, $225.33. CSR 2019, $231.67.

As she said, 2019 is looking a lot like 2018, rack-rate-wise.

Just want to add that it's not just CBR. POP and AOA also remained mostly the same, seeing on average a $2 increase on a three night mid week stay (Wed-Thurs) over a similar period in Oct 18 and Oct 19. Pricing also shows no jump from an early stay in May 19 (assuming Pre-Gondola) and a late stay In October 19 (should be well after Gondola starts operation.

As you have already said Disney could increase as the year goes or opening day for the Gondola system becomes more apparent.

That being said anyone looking to stay in the fall might want to book sooner than later. I am not an expert on this but my understanding is if you book at a rate and dont modify the reservation your locked in. If the prices increase dramatically, as has been rumored, this might be your best bet.

 

[Ripken10]

They can’t raise the prices for the gondola until the gondola is operational. You gonna raise the price at POP by 30% for let’s say, September 19. But then the gondola hits some delays and is not up and running. You have to wait. Even Disney has to make sure the system is finished and working before they start charging for it.

it's based on supply and demand. Whether or not it is open is a mute point, because if people believe it will be open, it will drive demand up, therefore Disney could raise the price before the Gondola is open. It IS interesting that they haven't raised the price yet. One would expect they still will, but it's still a positive sign that they have not yet (as cosmic pointed out).

 

[xdan0920]

it's based on supply and demand. Whether or not it is open is a mute point, because if people believe it will be open, it will drive demand up, therefore Disney could raise the price before the Gondola is open. It IS interesting that they haven't raised the price yet. One would expect they still will, but it's still a positive sign that they have not yet (as cosmic pointed out).

Glad you found Econ 101 informative this past semester.

 

[Lensman]

They can’t raise the prices for the gondola until the gondola is operational. You gonna raise the price at POP by 30% for let’s say, September 19. But then the gondola hits some delays and is not up and running. You have to wait. Even Disney has to make sure the system is finished and working before they start charging for it.

I'm trying not to disagree with anyone while still providing my own opinion/analysis, since my wife tells me I should try to be more likable.

I think there are two prerequisites for significantly increased prices:
1. Gondolas scheduled to be operational.
2. SW:GE scheduled to be open.

The current schedule for SW:GE at WDW is late November - early December, I think.

What the current best guess at the scheduled operational date for the Skyliner? I think Martin said the schedule was for an opening no later than the opening of SW:GE. So given that I'm not sure that Disney can safely raise Fall 2019 prices - both because for first half of the quarter there would be neither Skyliner nor SW:GE plus the risk of delay. My best guess would be a price increase for announced prices for early 2020.

BTW, are people disagreeing about the dates for price increases based on stay dates or price announcement dates? I sense that some people are thinking that when folks say, "Can't raise prices until the Skyliner is open.", other people are thinking that they mean that Disney can't announce price increases until December 2019. Thoughts?

 

[Kamikaze]

I think Martin said the schedule was for an opening no later than the opening of SW:GE. So given that I'm not sure that Disney can safely raise Fall 2019 prices - both because for first half of the quarter there would be neither Skyliner nor SW:GE plus the risk of delay. My best guess would be a price increase for early 2020.

He was actually very specific about it in one post. Within a week, either way, of May 1, 2019.

 

[NormC]

Whether or not it is open is a mute point,

I am sure we will hear it when it is open.

 

[ZmBe13]

I am sure we will hear it when it is open.

I think he meant Moo point

 

[Lensman]

He was actually very specific about it in one post. Within a week, either way, of May 1, 2019.

You're right!

Currently we may see a gondola or two moving this year.

I’d expect the system to be operational in 12 months give or take a week.

Guests riding would be 13-15 months away.

It will be running with guests before SWL opens. That’s the plan anyway.

All serviced resorts will raise prices.

I thought I'd consolidate the relevant posts. I found them after increasing my search mojo.

So Disney doesn't seem to be raising prices to the Skyliner resorts immediately upon planned opening of the Skyliner. I wonder if they're waiting to see the effect on bookings or waiting a little beyond the planned opening of SW:GE? When do they have to set rates for Jan 2020?

 

[cosmicgirl]

It was just a confusing turn of phrase.

Plus your position is tenuous at best. The gondola isn’t open. Therefore we don’t know how resort costs will be impacted when it’s operational.

I don't have a position in my original post, I merely stated: "there are no gondola upcharges as of yet". That's a fact, not an opinion. I did not claim that there would never be any, yet that seems to be what you have read.

They can’t raise the prices for the gondola until the gondola is operational. You gonna raise the price at POP by 30% for let’s say, September 19. But then the gondola hits some delays and is not up and running. You have to wait. Even Disney has to make sure the system is finished and working before they start charging for it.

Thanks to Martin we know that it'll likely be operational in a year. Even if you add a 3-month margin to that in case of delay it would be running in September 2019 and Disney easily could've increased rack rates from September onwards, yet they chose not to. They also could've chosen to introduce a minimal increase on their internal projected finish date and gradually increase it towards the Fall. Again, they chose not to do that.

As long as they don't advertise that the resorts will be served by the Skyliner from a certain date and then fail to meet that promise they can do what they want. Following your example, if they raise the price at Pop by 30% for September 2019 and guests booked at that rate without having been promised Skyliner access then that's on them, not Disney.

However, guests (myself included) are willing to book now in anticipation of what's coming. As @Ripken10 wrote if people believe something will be open they will be willing to pay more for it. It's doesn't have to be up and running on the day they book. This goes for SW:GE as well as the Skyliner. By not tapping into that with the rack rates that were released today they are missing out. It's lost revenue.

I'm trying not to disagree with anyone while still providing my own opinion/analysis, since my wife tells me I should try to be more likable.

I think there are two prerequisites for significantly increased prices:
1. Gondolas scheduled to be operational.
2. SW:GE scheduled to be open.

The current schedule for SW:GE at WDW is late November - early December, I think.

What the current best guess at the scheduled operational date for the Skyliner? I think Martin said the schedule was for an opening no later than the opening of SW:GE. So given that I'm not sure that Disney can safely raise Fall 2019 prices - both because for first half of the quarter there would be neither Skyliner nor SW:GE plus the risk of delay. My best guess would be a price increase for announced prices for early 2020.

BTW, are people disagreeing about the dates for price increases based on stay dates or price announcement dates? I sense that some people are thinking that when folks say, "Can't raise prices until the Skyliner is open.", other people are thinking that they mean that Disney can't announce price increases until December 2019. Thoughts?

I agree with your prerequisites, with the added detail that it suffices for people to believe that something will be open. It doesn't have to be officially scheduled for a certain date yet.

As @Kamikaze wrote above, Martin has mentioned that it would be finished in early May, give or take a week, and carrying guests 1-3 months after that. His latest hint was "late Spring".
With that in mind it would've been a fairly safe bet to increase resort rates for the Fall, especially because they haven't announced an opening date. It's essentially a risk-free rate increase at this point because people will book thinking it will be open but will have no reason to complain if it's not.

As I understood from @xdan0920's 30% increase at Pop for September 2019 example, he/she means that they can't introduce increased hotel rates until roughly a year from now when the system would be carrying guests. He/she brought up a potential delay and disappointed guests as the reasoning behind this.
I, on the other hand, believe that following this strategy would result in lost revenue because everyone who books a gondola resort for stays after "late Spring 2019" (per Martin) between now and said date would get to use the system but not pay for it. I believe that they could've introduced price increases today for stays after their internal project delivery date, with a buffer for potential delays. I don't believe an official announcement is necessary to benefit from this. But hey, I don't work for WDW revenue management .

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm trying not to disagree with anyone while still providing my own opinion/analysis, since my wife tells me I should try to be more likable.

I think there are two prerequisites for significantly increased prices:
1. Gondolas scheduled to be operational.
2. SW:GE scheduled to be open.

The current schedule for SW:GE at WDW is late November - early December, I think.

What the current best guess at the scheduled operational date for the Skyliner? I think Martin said the schedule was for an opening no later than the opening of SW:GE. So given that I'm not sure that Disney can safely raise Fall 2019 prices - both because for first half of the quarter there would be neither Skyliner nor SW:GE plus the risk of delay. My best guess would be a price increase for announced prices for early 2020.

BTW, are people disagreeing about the dates for price increases based on stay dates or price announcement dates? I sense that some people are thinking that when folks say, "Can't raise prices until the Skyliner is open.", other people are thinking that they mean that Disney can't announce price increases until December 2019. Thoughts?

I think you nailed it. The expected price increase is due to both the new mode of transport and the fact that it takes you to SW Land. Since SW is not expected to open until “late fall” it makes a lot of sense that early fall hotel rooms would not see a price increase. Historically there is a small dip in attendance prior to a major new opening as people who are planning to attend near the time of opening tend to delay their vacation in the hopes of catching the new land/ride. I think this will be especially true for SW. Late fall into winter rates will probably move up as we get closer to an opening date and supply starts to get reduced.

Someone can correct me if this isn’t tue anymore, but hotels can be booked online up to 499 days in advance so we still can’t see Nov and Dec 2019 rates online. The room rates for the whole year are released sometime the year before. If people want to look for increased prices at the impacted resorts I would expect to see it in the 2020 rates when both SW land and the gondolas are definitely open.

Another thing to watch for is reduced discounting. In the fall they often offer free DDP and/or bulk rate discounts (something like 30% off packages). They may not increase the rack rate right away in 2019 when the gondolas open but rather cut the discounts down to account for any increase in demand. They could also reduce or eliminate CM and AP discounts as well.

 

[GoofGoof]

I agree with your prerequisites, with the added detail that it suffices for people to believe that something will be open. It doesn't have to be officially scheduled for a certain date yet.

As @Kamikaze wrote above, Martin has mentioned that it would be finished in early May, give or take a week, and carrying guests 1-3 months after that. His latest hint was "late Spring".
With that in mind it would've been a fairly safe bet to increase resort rates for the Fall, especially because they haven't announced an opening date. It's essentially a risk-free rate increase at this point because people will book thinking it will be open but will have no reason to complain if it's not.

As I understood from @xdan0920's 30% increase at Pop for September 2019 example, he/she means that they can't introduce increased hotel rates until roughly a year from now when the system would be carrying guests. He/she brought up a potential delay and disappointed guests as the reasoning behind this.
I, on the other hand, believe that following this strategy would result in lost revenue because everyone who books a gondola resort for stays after "late Spring 2019" (per Martin) between now and said date would get to use the system but not pay for it. I believe that they could've introduced price increases today for stays after their internal project delivery date, with a buffer for potential delays. I don't believe an official announcement is necessary to benefit from this. But hey, I don't work for WDW revenue management .

One thing to consider is the average guest doesn’t know the gondolas are rumored to be open in late spring 2019. I don’t think Disney would want to raise rates based on that without also announcing the opening. In other words if I’m “average Joe” the tourist and I look to book a Sept 2019 WDW trip and I see CBR is significantly more than the other moderates I’m likely to book elsewhere in the category. If Disney announces an official opening date or even opening season it becomes much more likely they would also raise rates with it to catch the guests booking at that resort just because of the new transport. This does leave the door open for people in the know to book now before it’s announced.

I do also think they may have a fear of the pre SW Land attendance dip for early fall 2019. People may look to delay booking until a more firm opening date for the new land is better known.

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

6/19/2018 - International Gateway

 

[xdan0920]

One thing to consider is the average guest doesn’t know the gondolas are rumored to be open in late spring 2019. I don’t think Disney would want to raise rates based on that without also announcing the opening. In other words if I’m “average Joe” the tourist and I look to book a Sept 2019 WDW trip and I see CBR is significantly more than the other moderates I’m likely to book elsewhere in the category. If Disney announces an official opening date or even opening season it becomes much more likely they would also raise rates with it to catch the guests booking at that resort just because of the new transport. This does leave the door open for people in the know to book now before it’s announced.

I do also think they may have a fear of the pre SW Land attendance dip for early fall 2019. People may look to delay booking until a more firm opening date for the new land is better known.

Nailed it. High five!