For what it's worth, even in the situation you describe above, buying into the DVC makes financial sense in the long run. I've been doing a lot of research into whether DVC makes sense for me, so I made a spreadsheet for every property that projects costs (both DVC and non-DVC) over the next 40 years.
If you were to buy 300 points at BLT - enough to stay in a 1 bedroom lakeview once per year in the regular season - your total cost by 2028 would be around $60,154. By 2040, you would have spent close to $85,000. This takes into account estimated yearly maintenance cost increases based on available historical data.
If you were to stay at Bay Lake Tower on cash, once per year with a 40% PIN Code every year, by 2028 you would have spent around $62,148. Total spent by 2040 - over $132,000. This takes into account yearly price increases based on yearly rack rate increases over the past 10 years. This situation also includes earning interest (5% annually) on the money you didn't spend on the DVC. FWIW - your lodging costs in this scenario outrun the money saved/invested by 2026.
Please don't misunderstand me. I'm not at all saying DVC makes sense for you or anyone else. Just that in this situation (yearly stays in a lakeview 1 bedroom @ Bay Lake Tower) purchasing a DVC contract will cost you substantially less in the long run. Also, this calculation was based on a new contract purchase @ $110/point - the current promotion for 300 points. Basing this on a 300 point resale would move the break even point a few years earlier.
And again, this is only for the specific situation mentioned. The calculations change drastically if your normal vacationing habits are less frequent, or at less expensive resorts.
