What kind of increases can be expected in order to justify the cost of MM+?
Digging for concrete real time numbers is like drilling holes in water. I settled on the 2012 annual report pg 33. The derived numbers are not exact but should help to shed light on the magnitude of the investment.
The typical payback terms for investment in business is 5 years. This means corporate wants the revenue generated to pay off the price of the investment in 5 years. It is also helpful to understand the margin at which WDW operates. Note - International and Domestic results are included, so this analysis is considering the effect of NGE across WD P&R as a whole. Again while not specifically accurate, describes the magnitude of additional revenue needed to justify NGE.
Revenue - $12,920B
Income (less expenses) - $1,902B
Margin = $1,902/$12,920 = 14.721%
If (for easy math) NGE costs $2.5B and payback equals 5 years, this equates to 5 yearly payments of $500MM.
How much revenue does WDW need to generate to have $500MM in Operating Income for NGE payment? After all, it takes money to make money, right?
$500MM/margin = $500MM/.14721 = $3.396B
So WDW needs to have NGE increase sales by $3.4B/year (based on 2012 Annual Report) or 26.32%.
If analyzed by per Per Room Guest Spending (PRGS) with the same 2012 ratio of Revenues to PRGS. PRGS will need to increase from $257/night to $325/night.