Monorail Expansion?

[10 min. to wdw]

Originally posted by thedisneyfan
WHAT?!?!??!?!?!


71 buses at $50,000 per bus would still be $3,550,000.00! And that's only at $50,000 per bus!

2 things i see with that statement
1) a new monorail is like 6 million
2) he said the were leasing them not buying them

 

[Mickeyman819]

well an expansion to the monorail would be awesome but i dont se hapening any time soon. I think the bus line is awesome and you get to see more on the bus i think.

 

[thedisneyfan]

Originally posted by 10 min. to wdw
2 things i see with that statement
1) a new monorail is like 6 million
2) he said the were leasing them not buying them

A couple of things that I see with your statement.

1) Disney would at least be paying more than 50,000 per bus lease per year (I only used it as an example, I didn't say that they were buying them!)

2) If they were buying them the cost would be $200,000 or more.

Therefore if you take even $50,000 (a very low estimate) for each bus for even a lease for each year x 71 buses you would get $3,550,000! Take that times only 2 years you get $7,100,000 for busses! (Even at a lease!)(Plus by leasing them you have nothing to show on the balance sheet at the end of each year whereas if you buy a monorail [or even buses] you at least have an asset to show on the books)

Additionaly, the cost of using the buses and their upkeep is high as well as once a monorail has been purchased. The loads of fuel, the cleanings, the part replacements, the massive amount of drivers needed, it all adds up to a hefty price tag as well.

 

[no2apprentice]

Originally posted by scotty_l
Monorails whether they are expensive or not is a marketing tool...

I agree with that...but at what point does the marketing factor outweigh the cost factor? I mean, a full expansion of the monorail system would cost close to a billion dollars (maybe more)...that's a new park, or about 3 to 5 really well funded e-ticket attractions in the existing parks. Personally, I would rather see Disney invest in the existing parks.

Let's crunch some numbers. Some people have suggested an increase in resort prices to help cover the cost of an expansion. $5 pops into my mind at at the moment. Okay, let's say the price increase effects several resorts...let's say... 8,000 rooms. Okay, even if all 8,000 rooms are booked every day (which we know they aren't), in a year that will only generate an additional $14,600,000 dollars. It would take 68 years to recover the cost of a major expansion. Not a financially sound investment.

Initially, my concern was the cost of an expansion. But, after reading Tyler's numbers and scenarios several times, I see that the main issue is not cost, but the logistics. A fixed route transit system like the monorail is not the best solution to transportation at WDW. Sure it has more class than buses, and adds magic. But, if it will only create problems, why do it?

 

[thedisneyfan]

Originally posted by no2apprentice

Let's crunch some numbers. Some people have suggested an increase in resort prices to help cover the cost of an expansion. $5 pops into my mind at at the moment. Okay, let's say the price increase effects several resorts...let's say... 8,000 rooms. Okay, even if all 8,000 rooms are booked every day (which we know they aren't), in a year that will only generate an additional $14,600,000 dollars. It would take 68 years to recover the cost of a major expansion. Not a financially sound investment.

Once again NO PROGRESS here, NO VISION here! Your thoughts of paying for the monorail are far too narrow! The resorts payment will assist in defraying that big cost that people can't seem to get past, not in paying for it in toto! Plus you miss that the expansion cost would be recovered by more people coming to WDW, a great marketing ploy, increased resort stays, etc., etc., etc......

There's a great big beautiful tomorrow.....except for those who can only see a small little Eisner tomorrow with no vision.
:brick: :brick: :brick:

 

[leebier]

Originally posted by thedisneyfan
Plus you miss that the expansion cost would be recovered by more people coming to WDW, a great marketing ploy, increased resort stays, etc., etc., etc......

There's a great big beautiful tomorrow.....except for those who can only see a small little Eisner tomorrow with no vision.
:brick: :brick: :brick:

It seems I only appear around here when I get a surprising e-mail letting me know a thread I long ago subscribed to has re-appeared...

That said....

I love the monorail, however I would be more likely to come back to WDW more often and stay longer if there were more rides or another park. New rides take more time while I'm here and make me want to stay longer. They also make me want to come back and ride them again and again. The same would go for a new park (although I agree with the general consensus that 3-5 big E-ticket rides in existing parks is a better idea).

Do people love the monorail? Yes.

Is the monorail part of the magic of WDW? Yes.

Would I (and most people) be likely to come more often and stay longer if there were more big rides and new parks? Yes.

Would I like to be able to get to anywhere on campus in 15-20 minutes without having to switch trains and wait in more lines? Yes.

Should my WDW Transportation vehicle break down, would I like to wait only a couple mintes to have a replacement arrive and then carry on as if nothing happened rather than have to shut down the entire system until the one broken vehicle can be moved off the track? Yes.

This really isn't a conversation about accounting or costs. Fact is money is somewhat limited and rides/parks are preferrable to transport. People come to go to the parks. Should transportation in WDW be magical? Yes. But it should also be easy, quick, and efficient for the traffic patterns at WDW.

Monorails are magical. Unfortunately, they are not particularly easy, quick, or efficient for the traffic patterns at WDW.

Do I love buses? No. But for the moment they are the best answer. The long term answer is neither monorails (unfortunately) or buses (which I think we all agree is a good thing). WDW needs a new form of magical, easy, quick, and efficent for the traffic patterns of WDW transportation.

The real discussion isn't whether or not to expand the monorail. The real disucssion is what new system will meet all these requirements.

I haven't been around the boards much in the last few months, but perhaps Tyler or someone else knows of some new information coming out of the Transportation Industry that might be a clue as to what should be the best replacement for buses in the medium-long term future.

Leebier

 

[djmatthews]

^ Your answer is the WEDWAY People Mover :sohappy: :sohappy: :sohappy:

 

[leebier]

Originally posted by djmatthews
^ Your answer is the WEDWAY People Mover :sohappy: :sohappy: :sohappy:

I know there was a discussion about this a while back. I seem to recall the main issues were:

1) Child/Disability access. The system needs to keep moving to work and young children as well as people in Wheelchairs have trouble boarding the WEDway.

2) The WEDway system has a very low top speed which would make travelling the miles between parks slow.

3) The same fixed track problem. One car breaks down and the entire line has to stop.

On the whole, issues 1 and 2 could have creative answers through R&D investment.

As for issue 3, perhaps due to the size of the track and its (perhaps?) lower cost compared to other systems, there could be more parallel tracks w/ some sort of dynamic switching that would prevent entire streches from being down at a given time and allow other cars behind the stopped one to continue on their trip.


Leebier

 

[Invero]

Originally posted by scotty_l
If you are leasing them that what is the eventual next step.

My personal thought is that we leased them so that if they turned out to be cheap crap, we're not stuck with them. After 5 years, we can get rid of them. (And yes, they turned out to be cheap crap, and we are now looking at other manufacturers.)

 

[Invero]

Originally posted by thedisneyfan
A couple of things that I see with your statement.

1) Disney would at least be paying more than 50,000 per bus lease per year (I only used it as an example, I didn't say that they were buying them!)

2) If they were buying them the cost would be $200,000 or more.

Therefore if you take even $50,000 (a very low estimate) for each bus for even a lease for each year x 71 buses you would get $3,550,000! Take that times only 2 years you get $7,100,000 for busses! (Even at a lease!)(Plus by leasing them you have nothing to show on the balance sheet at the end of each year whereas if you buy a monorail [or even buses] you at least have an asset to show on the books)

Additionaly, the cost of using the buses and their upkeep is high as well as once a monorail has been purchased. The loads of fuel, the cleanings, the part replacements, the massive amount of drivers needed, it all adds up to a hefty price tag as well.

Purchase price of one Nova LFS averages around $315,000. Multiply that by 71, and you get around $22m. We are leasing, not buying, so our initial investment will be much less. Should we choose to purchase them at the end of the lease, our total cost will probably be slightly more than $22m. However, as I've stated before, one six-car MVI train would cost an approx $25m.

As for maintenance and upkeep, monorails are very expensive to run and maintain. Diesel buses by comparison are dirt cheap (when comparing equal capacity units) Of course, when you compare 71 to 1, then of course the buses will be more expensive.

 

[Invero]

Originally posted by thedisneyfan
Once again NO PROGRESS here, NO VISION here! Your thoughts of paying for the monorail are far too narrow! The resorts payment will assist in defraying that big cost that people can't seem to get past, not in paying for it in toto! Plus you miss that the expansion cost would be recovered by more people coming to WDW, a great marketing ploy, increased resort stays, etc., etc., etc......

There's a great big beautiful tomorrow.....except for those who can only see a small little Eisner tomorrow with no vision.
:brick: :brick: :brick:

It's not a matter of Vision or Progress! You can't just build something that you can't afford and that won't work, just because it's cool. It's not about Eisner. It's about using your brain.

Here's something for you. Why don't you go out and purchase a brand new Ferrari Enzo? They retail for $650,000, and they look really cool! Sure, you can't use it to its full potential because of legal limits here in the US. And yeah, it doesnt have enough room to carry your friends, family, or even your groceries. But hey, it's cool! Of course, it'll take you your entire lifespan to pay for it. Let's look at an alternative. TheVolkswagen Passat. You could get about 20 Passats for the same price. And the Passat performs decently, and can carry all your needs. But it's not a Ferrari.

 

[no2apprentice]

Originally posted by thedisneyfan
Your thoughts of paying for the monorail are far too narrow!

They're not my thoughts, I'm just doing the math based on what other members have proposed. If you have some ideas how Disney can afford the bill, and still keep new and exciting projects going in the parks, and still support the red ink in their media adventures, by all means, please post them!

Originally posted by thedisneyfan Once again NO PROGRESS here, NO VISION here!

If my family is staying at the AKL, and we ride the monorail to a hub, transfer, then ride to MK, with a possible transportation time of anywhere between 20 to 30 minutes, when it only takes 14 minutes by bus, I don't see where that involves any PROGRESS or VISION.

Please don't think I'm trying to bash the monorails. Yes, they are special and unique to WDW. It would have been wonderful if the monorail system was able to expand with the new resorts and parks, but I guess Disney was not concerned with that option when work was done.

I'm hoping that Disney can come up with a new and innovative method of transport that will have the Disney magic, and be worth the investment. Maybe PRT is the answer, maybe not. Maybe a new monorail design, with a different track structure, not as expensive, more flexible, easier to switch trains, etc. Who knows? Maybe Tyler will be on the design team one day. We can only hope.

 

[Invero]

Originally posted by no2apprentice
Maybe Tyler will be on the design team one day. We can only hope.

Once I finish my blasted degree, that's my goal!

 

[TURKEY]

Originally posted by thedisneyfan
Once again NO PROGRESS here, NO VISION here! Your thoughts of paying for the monorail are far too narrow! The resorts payment will assist in defraying that big cost that people can't seem to get past, not in paying for it in toto! Plus you miss that the expansion cost would be recovered by more people coming to WDW, a great marketing ploy, increased resort stays, etc., etc., etc......

There's a great big beautiful tomorrow.....except for those who can only see a small little Eisner tomorrow with no vision.
:brick: :brick: :brick:

Hmm...people don't like staying at resorts for a few reasons. One of the ones I hear most is that it's too expensive as is. Adding expansion costs into room costs would only drive more and more people away from staying on property.

 

[thedisneyfan]

Originally posted by Invero
It's not a matter of Vision or Progress! You can't just build something that you can't afford and that won't work, just because it's cool. It's not about Eisner. It's about using your brain.

Here's something for you. Why don't you go out and purchase a brand new Ferrari Enzo? They retail for $650,000, and they look really cool! Sure, you can't use it to its full potential because of legal limits here in the US. And yeah, it doesnt have enough room to carry your friends, family, or even your groceries. But hey, it's cool! Of course, it'll take you your entire lifespan to pay for it. Let's look at an alternative. TheVolkswagen Passat. You could get about 20 Passats for the same price. And the Passat performs decently, and can carry all your needs. But it's not a Ferrari.

Speaking of using brains, I guess that you can't see that the traffic situation as getting worse and worse each year as more parks, more resorts, and more visitors are added to WDW. I guess you just envision the buses growing wings and getting past all of this increased traffic. You and others keep mentioning all of the delays with the possibility of transfers with the monorail (despite the fact that some system could be worked on or worked out), yet you always seem to neglect all of the delays and stops, and additional stops that the buses make as they pick up from several stops or several resorts as well, as they stop at all of the stop signs to and from the resort to and from the theme park, etc. Meanwhile the monorail bypasses all of these traffic lights, stop signs, and additional motor vehicle traffic. But I guess that you were too busy using your brains while riding your ferrari to notice all of these things that a normal person could see!

 

[thedisneyfan]

Based upon your poor ferrari comparison, I guess Disney doesn't need to be cool or unique. They could have gotten 10 or 20 carnie rides for the price of Mission Space. Just think of it, I can see everyone now thinking hey I've got to go to Disney World so I can ride all those rides that I only get to ride once at the county fair! Look over there's a tricera tops spin, and there's another, and another....boy I'm sure glad we went for the twenty Volswagens!
Furthermore, I'm glad that you really never tell the true costs of the busses, only that your an expert simply because you drive one. Sorry, but the person who has worked twenty years at the Emporium doesn't qualify he or she as an expert in retail marketing. You may be an expert driver, but unless your the VP or AA to the VP of transportation, then I have to question your expertise about everything relating to transportation and its costs at WDW.

 

[Invero]

Originally posted by thedisneyfan
But I guess that you were too busy using your brains while riding your ferrari to notice all of these things that a normal person could see!

As someone who has been with Disney Transport in both Monorail and bus Operations for 3 years... I know what I see. It still doesn't make your argument hold water.

 

[Invero]

Originally posted by thedisneyfan
You may be an expert driver, but unless your the VP or AA to the VP of transportation, then I have to question your expertise about everything relating to transportation and its costs at WDW.

Have you not listened to anything I have said? Re-read what I have written. It's pure common sense. I don't have to be a VP of anything to know when something won't work. I know how the details of how our operation works. I know what works and why, and I also know what doesnt work, and why.

If that's not good enough for you... well, too bad. Keep on dreamin'...

 

[TURKEY]

Originally posted by thedisneyfan
Speaking of using brains, I guess that you can't see that the traffic situation as getting worse and worse each year as more parks, more resorts, and more visitors are added to WDW. I guess you just envision the buses growing wings and getting past all of this increased traffic. You and others keep mentioning all of the delays with the possibility of transfers with the monorail (despite the fact that some system could be worked on or worked out), yet you always seem to neglect all of the delays and stops, and additional stops that the buses make as they pick up from several stops or several resorts as well, as they stop at all of the stop signs to and from the resort to and from the theme park, etc. Meanwhile the monorail bypasses all of these traffic lights, stop signs, and additional motor vehicle traffic. But I guess that you were too busy using your brains while riding your ferrari to notice all of these things that a normal person could see!

Does it take a genius to see how financially and logistically flawed a monorail expansion is? I'm sure a system could be worked out, but it isn't practical. Do you see the vision of a bankrupt Disney after expanding the monorail?

There aren't many buses that stop at multiple resorts. For your monorail expansion, are you planning on having them stop at only one resort?

I guess you could:

1. Have seperate tracks for each resort running to a central hub and from there to each park. Wait, that wouldn't work. That's too much concrete/land used for that and the costs would be more than 1 billion.

2. Have each monorail service a single resort (much like most buses) but use the same beam. That wouldn't work either because there can only be a certain number of trains on each line. You could have 10 buses running to each resort if needed (and if staffing and fleet allowed), but only 2-3 monorails MAX per resort.



What happens when there is a wreck/delay on the roads? Buses can take an alternate route to get to their destination. What happens when a monorail gets stuck? Everything behind it stops and can't go around.

 

[thedisneyfan]

Originally posted by Invero
Have you not listened to anything I have said? Re-read what I have written. It's pure common sense. I don't have to be a VP of anything to know when something won't work. I know how the details of how our operation works. I know what works and why, and I also know what doesnt work, and why.

If that's not good enough for you... well, too bad. Keep on dreamin'...

I love how you keep on saying keep dreaming and that it will never be done....thankfully at least one man did dream and got past all of those people who always said the very same things! Of course, if you had your way we wouldn't be here because WDW or Disneyland would never be here without these dreams and someone who had the guts and the persistance to say that it can and will be done! Sorry, if your half-truths aren't good enough for me to buy into the notion that no expansion of the monorail will ever be done or ever be feasible...well, too bad. Keep on denyin'....