Sure, might not change too many plans if they think it's strong enough for a E-ticket. But one is 40+ year old legacy property which made 2 billion in the box office (one film being among the best grossing in US history) before it had one bomb, and the other is a less then a decade old singular film that did modestly at box office compared to other 2010s Disney/Pixar animation but is getting good streaming numbers the last several years.
A bomb would negatively affect it more then it would a franchise that proved its longevity. This is a expensive, large new infrastructure investment and not just a revamp like IJ will be, I'd expect if it's not announced or is blueskied at D23 that Moana 2's performance will play a major factor if it gets greenlit.