News Major Hurricane Dorian impacts to Walt Disney World 2019

[ToTBellHop]

Yes, the island will survive. That is an easy answer because your question should have been will all thr buildings survive? The of course there is lighthouse point and will the storm help by removing trees that needed to be removed for their construction?

I assume everything is built to the same standards as WDW. But I’m sure cosmetic damage is inevitable. Regardless, they’d get it fixed up quickly like many resorts in the Caribbean.

 

[WDW862]

Tropical Tidbits video is out

 

[ToyStoryMiss]

8PM Update

 

[beertiki]

Seriously. Anyone know the, "it ain't over 'til it's over" line? Models are great, but reality is another thing entirely.

Yes, there is a line. It is at least one degree of latitude North of your position. For me, in the Keys, once the storm was at 25.3 N, I felt safe. Once the storm is a 100 miles north of you, it's pretty much over. Going south is very rare.

 

[Lensman]

It took a while, but I finally managed to download an animated version of the satellite imagery covering 3:50 PM EDT to 5:20 PM EDT @ a frame every 10 minutes.

 

[Lensman]

Yes, there is a line. It is at least one degree of latitude North of your position. For me, in the Keys, once the storm was at 25.3 N, I felt safe. Once the storm is a 100 miles north of you, it's pretty much over. Going south is very rare.

I like to use the wind field and rain field products from the NHC:

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO

www.nhc.noaa.gov

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO

www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[beertiki]

I like to use the wind field and rain field products from the NHC:
View attachment 404242

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO

www.nhc.noaa.gov

View attachment 404243

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO

www.nhc.noaa.gov

I wish those maps were not posted. They are a joke. There is not a 10-20 chance of me getting those winds in the Keys. Cuba is worse, storms do not travel 300 miles south. Such broad and impossible predictions, only "cry wolf".

 

[monothingie]

Models are continuing to trend westward





I've probably said this like 20 times, but please hear me out:

These models WILL change. If you live in the Southeast, you should be prepared for the worst. No one knows where this ***** is going

It’s also important to not rely on a sole model. The GFS has had its problems in the past. The Euro model has continually led trend of how Dorian has progressed. It continues to forecast a solution that stays off the coast and favors a close call.

I’m not saying Levi is doing this, but a close call or threat of landfall mean ratings and clicks for many others. So keep that in mind too.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I wish those maps were not posted. They are a joke. There is not a 10-20 chance of me getting those winds in the Keys. Cuba is worse, storms do not travel 300 miles south. Such broad and impossible predictions, only "cry wolf".

Aren’t they just made by a computer analyzing millions of pieces of data? To be fair, on a normal day, when they say there’s a 20% chance of thunderstorms, it’s usually sunny all day.

 

[bclane]

Does anyone know how often they update the models? For example, is it after each storm, each season, every few years, or do they just create a new model as they learn more about weather patterns and storm science? I'm sure I could research it, but I'm hoping someone already knows and can just save me the time. Sorry for the lazy question.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Does anyone know how often they update the models? For example, is it after each storm, each season, every few years, or do they just create a new model as they learn more about weather patterns and storm science? I'm sure I could research it, but I'm hoping someone already knows and can just save me the time. Sorry for the lazy question.

Depends on the model but it isn’t yearly. Some models are more accurate lately than others. The “consensus model” takes into account the most accurate models. The Euro model is typically the most accurate (often more accurate than the NHC consensus, which itself is rather good).

 

[Lensman]

Does anyone know how often they update the models? For example, is it after each storm, each season, every few years, or do they just create a new model as they learn more about weather patterns and storm science? I'm sure I could research it, but I'm hoping someone already knows and can just save me the time. Sorry for the lazy question.

For the GFS and other NWS models, I think you'll find the major updates on this page:

NCO IDSB - Upcoming Changes

www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov

Note that the official GFS was updated to version 15.1 with the new FV3 core on June 12th of this year. It looks like it spent about a year in parallel testing with version 15.1 running alongside version 14.

NOAA upgrades the U.S. global weather forecast model

Improved model will boost weather forecasts across the U.S.

www.noaa.gov

 

[ToTBellHop]

For the GFS and other NWS models, I think you'll find the major updates on this page:

NCO IDSB - Upcoming Changes

www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov

Note that the official GFS was updated to version 15.1 with the new FV3 core on June 12th of this year. It looks like it spent about a year in parallel testing with version 15.1 running alongside version 14.

NOAA upgrades the U.S. global weather forecast model

Improved model will boost weather forecasts across the U.S.

www.noaa.gov

Many of these updates don’t really affect the actual statistical models.

 

[Lensman]

Depends on the model but it isn’t yearly. Some models are more accurate lately than others. The “consensus model” takes into account the most accurate models. The Euro model is typically the most accurate (often more accurate than the NHC consensus, which itself is rather good).

I found the following articles provided interesting insight into the different models as well as the new FV3 core of version 15.1 of the GFS:

Euro Vs. GFS: The Weather Model Wars Take A New Turn In March

A new U.S. weather model goes operational in March. Does it challenge the European Model (and does that even matter)?

www.forbes.com

The US weather model is now the fourth best in the world

By some measures it hangs on to beat the Canadian model for third place, but still.

arstechnica.com

FV3: The Next Step for NOAA’s Global Forecast Modeling

www.weather.gov

The following is from the ArsTechnica article that illustrates a quantification of "better."

According to the first article, the FV3 core of GFS 15.1 will bring it up from 4th place to 3rd. Hopefully upgrading the physics and increasing the innovation/partnerships/cooperation will allow it to start improving at a faster pace.

 

[WDW862]

It’s also important to not rely on a sole model. The GFS has had its problems in the past. The Euro model has continually led trend of how Dorian has progressed. It continues to forecast a solution that stays off the coast and favors a close call.

I’m not saying Levi is doing this, but a close call or threat of landfall mean ratings and clicks for many others. So keep that in mind too.

Media fear mongering es me off. But multiple models are slowly trending western. But this can change of course.

On another note, Doarin should be a Cat 5 on the 11pm advisory. Hurricane Hunters mission just flew into the storm. 150 knots.

 

[Lensman]

On another note, Doarin should be a Cat 5 on the 11pm advisory. Hurricane Hunters mission just flew into the storm. 150 knots.

From a previous mission:

 

[JenniferS]

MCO not closing on Monday after all. Good thing I didn’t cancel our flights.

Oh ... wait.

ETA:

 

[invader]

I don’t understand the idea that we’re in the clear yet. Dorian is only getting stronger and we’re still getting models that put the storm on top of Florida.

 

[BoarderPhreak]

I don’t understand the idea that we’re in the clear yet. Dorian is only getting stronger and we’re still getting models that put the storm on top of Florida.

Neither do I. It truly blows my mind at how complacent people are becoming

But, but... The <insert favorite model> says it's moving <east|west|north|south>!

<insert lots of pretty maps to prove point>

 

[invader]

New NHC update is out. No upgrade to Cat 5 for some reason, not really any shift west either even though recent models have called for it. Questionable but they’re the experts.