News Major Hurricane Dorian impacts to Walt Disney World 2019

BoarderPhreak

Well-Known Member
Models showed Irma plowing up the east coast hours before landfall. Then she was like "SURPRISE!! West Coast best coast"

I am so glad I chose to not pursue this field as a career. I cannot imagine the headache this great scientists have right now trying to predict the unpredictable
I'm a "Sandy survivor." Nobody could really predict how that "storm of the century" was going to play out. They knew it would be bad, but that's about it - it was worse. My own house was nearly cut in two by a neighbor's tree - with us directly underneath. Thankfully it was stopped by a pretty solid branch landing on the cement patio or it would've been curtains.
 

BoarderPhreak

Well-Known Member
So sorry to hear that.
Thanks... Luckily the eave of the roof took the brunt of the damage and it wasn't too bad (easy to repair). Got a new roof out of it. The pool deck was toast though, as was some fencing, siding and window screens here and there. Could've been a lot worse. I really feel bad for the people in the lower lying areas that had their entire houses flooded out, and worse - are STILL dealing with insurance, FEMA and gawd knows what - almost seven years later.

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seascape

Well-Known Member
Thanks... Luckily the eave of the roof took the brunt of the damage and it wasn't too bad (easy to repair). Got a new roof out of it. The pool deck was toast though, as was some fencing, siding and window screens here and there. Could've been a lot worse. I really feel bad for the people in the lower lying areas that had their entire houses flooded out, and worse - are STILL dealing with insurance, FEMA and gawd knows what - almost seven years later.

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I still cry when driving down the strip from Point Pleasant to Seaside. I grew up in Brielle, now live ibetween 2 homes, one in Belmar and one in Staten Island, so I am well aware of Sandy. In Florida we were run over by Charlie. However, I am lucky and no damage that couldn't be fixed. Hurricanes are dangerous but if you plan and follow all the warnings, they are easily survived and that is what matters.
 

Lensman

Well-Known Member
Models showed Irma plowing up the east coast hours before landfall. Then she was like "SURPRISE!! West Coast best coast"

I am so glad I chose to not pursue this field as a career. I cannot imagine the headache this great scientists have right now trying to predict the unpredictable
Both east coast and gulf coast tracks were within the cone of uncertainty. The problem is that people focus on the one dark line in the middle. In some ways, the spaghetti charts are less likely to be misinterpreted by people, as it is pretty clear that picking any one track out of the spaghetti is wishful thinking.

Even the spaghetti charts don't sufficiently account for other kinds of uncertainty or inadequacies of the models themselves. We see that again here with Dorian and how the European model was able to pick up on certain developments in advance of the GFS model. Really we might think that the U.S. needs to put some additional work into improving the GFS.

One bias we have to overcome is our assumption that the process by which these forecasts are done looks like how we imagine we might do it ourselves. The process does not involve guessing, the process involves taking detailed observations of atmospheric conditions from as many different points in the volume of the entire planetary atmosphere and surface of every ocean and feeding it into a computer program that has been programmed to model the atmosphere and interactions, which then produces forecasts of multiple possible versions of future conditions for the oceans and the atmosphere moving forward in time. Even this description is an inadequate description of what actually happens.

I remember reading an article at the time of Irma about how NWS sends up additional weather balloons across the country to gather extra atmospheric observations used to initialize the global forecast models. I just did a web search and found local news coverage of the NWS doing the same thing for Dorian. For example:
 
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Well, we made it.

I didn't notice anything peculiar driving in down 95 or 4.

The CM's at check-in seem to be wildly optimistic that parks will remain open throughout Dorian. But, I suppose they're paid to be positive.

I'll update as I hear more....
Still no new info coming from the CM's in the park.

Either I get the "it's still too early to tell" or some other polite version of "I don't know".

If I hear something different I'll pass it along
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
Ha...

Pete’s not wrong, but I wish he wouldn’t have said it.
Pete is wrong. The EPCOT Building Code does not exceed the requirements of Miami-Dade County. The ultimate wind load (3 second gust) for Risk Category II buildings is 139 mph and Risk Category III and IV is 149 mph (Section 904.2). A Category 5 storm has sustained winds of 157 mph or more.
 
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