News Major Hurricane Dorian impacts to Walt Disney World 2019

ToTBellHop

Well-Known Member
Yes, the island will survive. That is an easy answer because your question should have been will all thr buildings survive? The of course there is lighthouse point and will the storm help by removing trees that needed to be removed for their construction?
I assume everything is built to the same standards as WDW. But I’m sure cosmetic damage is inevitable. Regardless, they’d get it fixed up quickly like many resorts in the Caribbean.
 

ToyStoryMiss

Well-Known Member
404233

8PM Update
 

beertiki

Well-Known Member
Seriously. Anyone know the, "it ain't over 'til it's over" line? Models are great, but reality is another thing entirely.

Yes, there is a line. It is at least one degree of latitude North of your position. For me, in the Keys, once the storm was at 25.3 N, I felt safe. Once the storm is a 100 miles north of you, it's pretty much over. Going south is very rare.
 

Lensman

Well-Known Member

beertiki

Well-Known Member

monothingie

Evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.
Premium Member
Original Poster
Models are continuing to trend westward





I've probably said this like 20 times, but please hear me out:

These models WILL change. If you live in the Southeast, you should be prepared for the worst. No one knows where this ***** is going


It’s also important to not rely on a sole model. The GFS has had its problems in the past. The Euro model has continually led trend of how Dorian has progressed. It continues to forecast a solution that stays off the coast and favors a close call.

I’m not saying Levi is doing this, but a close call or threat of landfall mean ratings and clicks for many others. So keep that in mind too.
 

ToTBellHop

Well-Known Member
I wish those maps were not posted. They are a joke. There is not a 10-20 chance of me getting those winds in the Keys. Cuba is worse, storms do not travel 300 miles south. Such broad and impossible predictions, only "cry wolf".
Aren’t they just made by a computer analyzing millions of pieces of data? To be fair, on a normal day, when they say there’s a 20% chance of thunderstorms, it’s usually sunny all day.
 

bclane

Well-Known Member
Does anyone know how often they update the models? For example, is it after each storm, each season, every few years, or do they just create a new model as they learn more about weather patterns and storm science? I'm sure I could research it, but I'm hoping someone already knows and can just save me the time. Sorry for the lazy question.
 

ToTBellHop

Well-Known Member
Does anyone know how often they update the models? For example, is it after each storm, each season, every few years, or do they just create a new model as they learn more about weather patterns and storm science? I'm sure I could research it, but I'm hoping someone already knows and can just save me the time. Sorry for the lazy question.
Depends on the model but it isn’t yearly. Some models are more accurate lately than others. The “consensus model” takes into account the most accurate models. The Euro model is typically the most accurate (often more accurate than the NHC consensus, which itself is rather good).
 

Lensman

Well-Known Member
Does anyone know how often they update the models? For example, is it after each storm, each season, every few years, or do they just create a new model as they learn more about weather patterns and storm science? I'm sure I could research it, but I'm hoping someone already knows and can just save me the time. Sorry for the lazy question.
For the GFS and other NWS models, I think you'll find the major updates on this page:

Note that the official GFS was updated to version 15.1 with the new FV3 core on June 12th of this year. It looks like it spent about a year in parallel testing with version 15.1 running alongside version 14.
 

ToTBellHop

Well-Known Member
For the GFS and other NWS models, I think you'll find the major updates on this page:

Note that the official GFS was updated to version 15.1 with the new FV3 core on June 12th of this year. It looks like it spent about a year in parallel testing with version 15.1 running alongside version 14.
Many of these updates don’t really affect the actual statistical models.
 

Lensman

Well-Known Member
Depends on the model but it isn’t yearly. Some models are more accurate lately than others. The “consensus model” takes into account the most accurate models. The Euro model is typically the most accurate (often more accurate than the NHC consensus, which itself is rather good).
I found the following articles provided interesting insight into the different models as well as the new FV3 core of version 15.1 of the GFS:

The following is from the ArsTechnica article that illustrates a quantification of "better."
404247


According to the first article, the FV3 core of GFS 15.1 will bring it up from 4th place to 3rd. Hopefully upgrading the physics and increasing the innovation/partnerships/cooperation will allow it to start improving at a faster pace.
 
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WDW862

Well-Known Member
It’s also important to not rely on a sole model. The GFS has had its problems in the past. The Euro model has continually led trend of how Dorian has progressed. It continues to forecast a solution that stays off the coast and favors a close call.

I’m not saying Levi is doing this, but a close call or threat of landfall mean ratings and clicks for many others. So keep that in mind too.
Media fear mongering es me off. But multiple models are slowly trending western. But this can change of course.

On another note, Doarin should be a Cat 5 on the 11pm advisory. Hurricane Hunters mission just flew into the storm. 150 knots.
 

BoarderPhreak

Well-Known Member
I don’t understand the idea that we’re in the clear yet. Dorian is only getting stronger and we’re still getting models that put the storm on top of Florida.
Neither do I. It truly blows my mind at how complacent people are becoming 😳🤯
But, but... The <insert favorite model> says it's moving <east|west|north|south>! 🙄

<insert lots of pretty maps to prove point>
 

invader

Well-Known Member
New NHC update is out. No upgrade to Cat 5 for some reason, not really any shift west either even though recent models have called for it. Questionable but they’re the experts.
 
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