Len Testa Crowd Analysis

[Noralou]

Here is some food for thought.
"January is slow season"
That may have been the situation in the past. OK, we know that was the situation. However, why does anyone think that it would continue as the slow season? More people are attending Walt Disney World in January. Did anyone try to book a hotel in January or February? I made a quick trip down on Jan 8-10 and Feb 5-7. 10 days prior, I tried to book hotel rooms. There was almost nothing available. Campground and suites. My Jan trip I could not get anything at all except FW the day I wanted to book. I checked back the next day and could get a water view room at Carribean Beach or a campground spot. I took the CB room. The next day was down to FW only again. My Feb trip I could get 2 nights at AS Sports when I wanted 3 or a suite at Coronado or Poly. That was it for a Thursday night.

January was definately slower than Christmas week. But that does not mean it was slow.

"Disney is manipulating line times"
I would hope that they are. I manage restaurants and nightclubs. I am responsible for making sure that there are lots of staff members there for Saturday night. But on Monday night I will have only 1 bartender on. If it gets busy, I still only have 1 bartender to help the guests. But my goal is to increase sales on Monday night, so I hope that people have to wait for a drink instead of having a bartender getting paid to play on his phone.

In the restaurant, if it is Tuesday night, I might have 2 servers on duty. If 8 tables walk in within a few moments, some of them are going to sit and wait. But I am not going to open both dining rooms and staff them both so that you can get instant service. I would be unemployed if I did. It is my responsibility to schedule for the goldiloks spot. As a shareholder, I would be upset if Disney did not operate that way. You are going to a theme park...You will wait in lines.

Are you saying on one hand that Disney was fully booked and so, duh, that time was not slow but that it was ok for them to reduce staffing because it was a slow time? There are 2 messages I hear alot - that there are NO MORE SLOW times and that it s is OK for Disney to staff less for slow times. Maybe I am misunderstanding you, but if it was hard to book a room, wouldn't Disney know that in advance and staff accordingly if they cared?

 

[Disone]

Just go and observe...it's pretty easy to see without statistical analysis.

I said the example I experienced (several times): 45 minute fast pass wait and a very short standby line with a posted 150-180 minute wait.

That's shocking and there's no way to account for that or fix it, frankly.

If the "Magic Number" of rides is 14?? Nobody is hitting that...it's impossible to string that many Together in the currency conditions...the TTA has a 30 minute wait and a snaking queue.

Ohhhhb you must open the MK with me.... I will get us on 14 attractions, without cheating or manipulation, before the Festival of Fantasy roles out at 3pm. But to your point.... The average person cannot do this. I think the real number is 7.something, not 14. Of course that's for the Magic Kingdom. It would be hard for us to do 7 attractions at Hollywood Studios because, let's face it, do they even have that many

 

[GeneralKnowledge]

I think the people that are complaining that Len’s crowd calendars are a waste of time are the same people that complain and say that weather forecasters don’t know what they’re doing.

You have to appreciate the fact that neither of these subjects are exact sciences, but both fields are putting forth a lot of scientific effort in order to develop the best forecast possible. We know Touring Plans and our local weather forecasters aren’t going to be right 100% of the time.

This crowd deviation we’re experiencing in 2018 is akin to a scenario where all of the hurricane models are in agreement that a storm is going to hit Florida but it makes an unexpected turn and hits Singapore instead.

 

[GeneralKnowledge]

To everyone that keeps saying the Touring Plans’ projections aren’t accurate, we know. Read Len’s posts, listen to the podcast. This discussion isn’t about whether or not their info is accurate, it’s about why it’s not accurate, particularly because of a suspected change in Disney’s operating strategy. This is about crossing the line between modifying attraction capacity to match crowd levels and modifying attraction capacity to see how poor of a guest experience they can get away with to save a buck.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

I think the people that are complaining that Len’s crowd calendars are a waste of time are the same people that complain and say that weather forecasters don’t know what they’re doing.

You have to appreciate the fact that neither of these subjects are exact sciences, but both fields are putting forth a lot of scientific effort in order to develop the best forecast possible. We know Touring Plans and our local weather forecasters aren’t going to be right 100% of the time.

This crowd deviation we’re experiencing in 2018 is akin to a scenario where all of the hurricane models are in agreement that a storm is going to hit Florida but it makes an unexpected turn and hits Singapore instead.

If folks want to draw their ire towards a specific target, how about Disney? We’ve gone from the high efficiency two day park that was EPCOT Center to a land like Pandora where most guests can’t fully experience it unless they have FPs for both attraction close to one another due to low capacity. FP and FP+ put more guests onto the thoroughfares and WDI, as noted earlier by @lazyboy97o, can’t design quality, high capacity attractions anymore.

Maybe those “monkeys” who learned the business at Walt’s knee knew a thing or two and their greatest mistake was making it look too easy.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

A 3% homeschooling rate is around 1.7MM kids, about the same as all public schools in Georgia and Rhode Island combined.

That 3% is spread out over 50 states, obviously. The vast majority don't visit WDW - maybe 6%, tops, if I had to guess - or around 280 kids per day at all four parks combined, on average.

So "3" then??

 

[Gringrinngghost]

F&F does seem to be quite popular... outside the U.S....

View attachment 269254

In the numbers I could find for South America for Fast 7, the continent represented 119,581,503 million dollars or approximately 10.28%. The biggest group from South America that comes to the US parks are from Brazil. In the 119,581,503 million, Brazil accounted for 46,606,286 million, or approximately 38.97%. In the international box office, the countries that surpassed Brazil was China (390m), Mexico (51m), and the United Kingdom (59m). Those four countries accounted for 549,126,229 million in the International market or 47.21%

Fast 8 still from the data I can find for the countries in South America still accounts for about 10% (9.88%) of the International box office.

Furious 7:

The Fate of the Furious:

 

[GhostHost1000]

There just isn’t a slow time anymore at Disney. The closest thing you will find is after Labor Day for a few weeks in September but even then I wouldn’t call it slow just slower than others

 

[xdan0920]

There just isn’t a slow time anymore at Disney. The closest thing you will find is after Labor Day for a few weeks in September but even then I wouldn’t call it slow just slower than others

I think the point @lentesta is trying to make is, there IS a slow time. But Disney is artificially, purposefully turning those slow times into busy times by screwing with staffing and efficiency. Which STINKS, for guests.

 

[drizgirl]

Are you saying on one hand that Disney was fully booked and so, duh, that time was not slow but that it was ok for them to reduce staffing because it was a slow time? There are 2 messages I hear alot - that there are NO MORE SLOW times and that it s is OK for Disney to staff less for slow times. Maybe I am misunderstanding you, but if it was hard to book a room, wouldn't Disney know that in advance and staff accordingly if they cared?

Not only do they have all that hotel occupancy information, but they also have all that MDE fastpass reservation information. They have the data. There's no excuse for staffing down if crowds are expected to be high.

 

[lentesta]

I think the point @lentesta is trying to make is, there IS a slow time. But Disney is artificially, purposefully turning those slow times into busy times by screwing with staffing and efficiency. Which STINKS, for guests.

I'd say it this way: there are no more days with low wait times at WDW. (Still happens at Disneyland and Universal.)

 

[beertiki]

The last 3 times I was going to ride the people mover, it had a huge line. I don't think in the past 7 years that we have had APs this has happened unless the ride went down. It also seems that Space Mountain is always under staffed or in some way not using all of the boarding areas.

I just can't see how keeping me and a couple hundred others stuck inline for an extra 15 minutes because three employees are not on the payroll makes any sense. Wouldn't the spending habits of those guest make up for the payroll increase? A guest stuck in line does not pass Mickey bars, popcorn, pretzels, and churros on their way to the next ride.

 

[drizgirl]

A guest stuck in line does not pass Mickey bars, popcorn, pretzels, and churros on their way to the next ride.

The guests who bypass the attraction completely because of the long line probably do.

 

[danlb_2000]

To everyone that keeps saying the Touring Plans’ projections aren’t accurate, we know. Read Len’s posts, listen to the podcast. This discussion isn’t about whether or not their info is accurate, it’s about why it’s not accurate, particularly because of a suspected change in Disney’s operating strategy. This is about crossing the line between modifying attraction capacity to match crowd levels and modifying attraction capacity to see how poor of a guest experience they can get away with to save a buck.

Actually, some people are trying to make the claim that the touring plans aren't ever accurate enough to be useful.

 

[GeneralKnowledge]

Actually, some people are trying to make the claim that the touring plans aren't ever accurate enough to be useful.

I hear that too. To be honest I’ve never used them. I’ve heard good things from friends that have used them.l though. Also from listening to Lens podcast it has always sounded to me that he is an upstanding guy that puts a lot into his work including comparing their projections to the actual results and confirming that they are maintaining accuracy.

 

[danlb_2000]

I hear that too. To be honest I’ve never used them. I’ve heard good things from friends that have used them.l though. Also from listening to Lens podcast it has always sounded to me that he is an upstanding guy that puts a lot into his work including comparing their projections to the actual results and confirming that they are maintaining accuracy.

I've also never used them so can't make a judgement either way.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not only do they have all that hotel occupancy information, but they also have all that MDE fastpass reservation information. They have the data. There's no excuse for staffing down if crowds are expected to be high.

This is the bullseye

 

[wdisney9000]

Actually, some people are trying to make the claim that the touring plans aren't ever accurate enough to be useful.

Funny how Disney can make a shortsighted, financially motivated, corner cutting, shoehorning decision and people will spew out the old
"lets wait and see", and totally give the Disney the benefit of doubt. But Touring Plans has a short run of inaccurate data (due to Disneys shortsighted, corner cutting decisions) and people grab the pitchforks. smh

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'd say it this way: there are no more days with low wait times at WDW. (Still happens at Disneyland and Universal.)

I'd say this is a major point...and the big outlier is fastpass 2.0...

Many people don't realize that they don't pull these kinds of shenanigans at disneyland...unless it's raining, those rides are OPEN and they have staff all over the place.

The difference to me is that they have the prebooked reservation in Orlando:..and I'd bet dimes do dollars that they are using the predictive nature of the data to try and shave minor operational costs. Reinventing the wheel...basically...to squeeze the grapes more and be generally miserable as the TDO thug squad tends to be anyway.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Funny how Disney can make a shortsighted, financially motivated, corner cutting, shoehorning decision and people will spew out the old
"lets wait and see", and totally give the Disney the benefit of doubt. But Touring Plans has a short run of inaccurate data (due to Disneys shortsighted, corner cutting decisions) and people grab the pitchforks. smh

You noticed that too, huh?