Len Testa Crowd Analysis

[Kman101]

Not only do they have all that hotel occupancy information, but they also have all that MDE fastpass reservation information. They have the data. There's no excuse for staffing down if crowds are expected to be high.

Bingo.

Call outs can't be helped, but understaffing deliberately can ...

I love the excuse of "well, the parks are just busier". Eh, that's true on some level but they haven't increased to the point of peak crowds on a daily basis. Slower times are no more because Disney doesn't want slower times. I do think some guests travel patterns might have shifted, but there's definitely something going on here.

But folks (not you of course) go ahead and grab those pitchforks for Len and TouringPlans

 

[ford91exploder]

This is a mish mosh of a lot of old debates..

And I'm
Sorry to say...having fought these Since around 2000 on several other battlefields..the "naysayers" have been proven right with more and more frequency.

That's because naysayers dont confuse what they would like to happen with what is actually happening.

 

[ford91exploder]

There was ALWAYS a tipping point...previous management was more concerned with never finding it

This management team is determined to find it, But they will not like the results when its found.

 

[Kman101]

That's because naysayers dont confuse what they would like to happen with what is actually happening.

You can still live in reality and not always be a naysayer lol. I find a happy medium but that's not for everyone

 

[Kman101]

This management team is determined to find it, But they will not like the results when its found.

I'm waiting and waiting for that tipping point but we're not there yet (at least in terms of the average guest, they don't seem to care). Very curious to see if we ever truly reach it and how much some will pay ... 5, 10 dollar increases every year isn't going to draw enough attention. If they were to REALLY raise the prices I think that could get some attention. Year to year it doesn't seem to have much of an impact (but if a person sat down and did the math on what they once paid and what they pay now ...). I do see a bit more groaning from the media and elsewhere than I have before but we're still not there.

 

[ford91exploder]

The last 3 times I was going to ride the people mover, it had a huge line. I don't think in the past 7 years that we have had APs this has happened unless the ride went down. It also seems that Space Mountain is always under staffed or in some way not using all of the boarding areas.

I just can't see how keeping me and a couple hundred others stuck inline for an extra 15 minutes because three employees are not on the payroll makes any sense. Wouldn't the spending habits of those guest make up for the payroll increase? A guest stuck in line does not pass Mickey bars, popcorn, pretzels, and churros on their way to the next ride.

The attractions are a different business unit than the food vendors. And the business units are rated on financial metrics.

So the Attractions people dont care that the guests are not buying food and merchandise as long as the attractions numbers look good.

The loser in this numbers game of course is the paying guest.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You can still live in reality and not always be a naysayer lol. I find a happy medium but that's not for everyone

I think his point is the old modicum of "trust disney...quality wins out" has been proven to be 100% obsolete.

That doesn't mean you hate it...or can't enjoy it...but ask the questions!!!

Why am I paying $120 for 3 hours on rides when the park should be open to midnight on February 15th because there are 3 hours waits at 3 pm???

"Question authority" and trust your instincts

 

[Kman101]

I think his point is the old modicum of "trust disney...quality wins out" has been proven to be 100% obsolete.

That doesn't mean you hate it...or can't enjoy it...but ask the questions!!!

Why am I paying $120 for 3 hours on rides when the park should be open to midnight on February 15th because there are 3 hours waits at 3 pm???

"Question authority" and trust your instincts

Exactly. I agree with that. I definitely question them and what they do. I don't understand the blind loyalty (some fans of both Uni and Disney seem to jump at any bit of valid criticism). You can still still enjoy it even if you point out the faults ... but some people resent any criticism and it's turned into being negative. To me there's a difference between constant negativity for the sake of it, and being critical over valid problems.

 

[ford91exploder]

I'm waiting and waiting for that tipping point but we're not there yet (at least in terms of the average guest, they don't seem to care). Very curious to see if we ever truly reach it and how much some will pay ... 5, 10 dollar increases every year isn't going to draw enough attention. If they were to REALLY raise the prices I think that could get some attention. Year to year it doesn't seem to have much of an impact (but if a person sat down and did the math on what they once paid and what they pay now ...). I do see a bit more groaning from the media and elsewhere than I have before but we're still not there.

I dont think its going to be a price tipping point, Its going to be a value related one. As Disney increasingly optimizes the parks for profitability over guest experience. Eventually the word of mouth will be is all you do is stand in lines and people will just stop going.

Current management not visiting the parks and experiencing the park as a normal guest is going to lead to unfortunate outcomes to say the least.

I personally think it will be SWL which will cause the tipping point to be hit.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm waiting and waiting for that tipping point but we're not there yet (at least in terms of the average guest, they don't seem to care). Very curious to see if we ever truly reach it and how much some will pay ... 5, 10 dollar increases every year isn't going to draw enough attention. If they were to REALLY raise the prices I think that could get some attention. Year to year it doesn't seem to have much of an impact (but if a person sat down and did the math on what they once paid and what they pay now ...). I do see a bit more groaning from the media and elsewhere than I have before but we're still not there.

While I agree with you...

I have to say: we've gotten a lot closer to it than 5 years ago...and I preached (in an illogical sorta way) about it then...

The tipping point for me is when crowd levels and standby lines make buying a ticket valueless...

We are creeping up to it. I don't need to spend $800+ a year for a pass where I get 3 rides That have to be booked 60 days in advance while I'm on a conference call. There is no value in that...nor to be allowed entry to go spend $160 on four at brown derby...

I love wdw...but the camels back will break unless there is a consumer/seller reckoning and very soon.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Exactly. I agree with that. I definitely question them and what they do. I don't understand the blind loyalty (some fans of both Uni and Disney seem to jump at any bit of valid criticism). You can still still enjoy it even if you point out the faults ... but some people resent any criticism and it's turned into being negative. To me there's a difference between constant negativity for the sake of it, and being critical over valid problems.

Agreed

 

[Kman101]

While I agree with you...

I have to say: we've gotten a lot closer to it than 5 years ago...and I preached (in an illogical sorta way) about it then...

The tipping point for me is when crowd levels and standby lines make buying a ticket valueless...

We are creeping up to it. I don't need to spend $800+ a year for a pass where I get 3 rides That have to be booked 60 days in advance while I'm on a conference call. There is no value in that...nor to be allowed entry to go spend $160 on four at brown derby...

I love wdw...but the camels back will break unless there is a consumer/seller reckoning and very soon.

We are definitely closer to it than say 5 years ago. I agree with that.

 

[larryz]

Not only do they have all that hotel occupancy information, but they also have all that MDE fastpass reservation information. They have the data. There's no excuse for staffing down if crowds are expected to be high.

Well, there's one excuse...

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We are definitely closer to it than say 5 years ago. I agree with that.

It's not just "closer"...it's the rate of burn...they repurposed fantasyland, built a boca raton shopping mall and really not much else till 2017 and the swells are not representative...

I feel like iger is jim Lovell on apollo 13: scorching everything to get home to Florida against the odds.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well, there's one excuse...

NYSE: DIS?

 

[larryz]

NYSE: DIS?

A new Disney character -- Captain EBITDA!

 

[USofA scott]

I dont think its going to be a price tipping point, Its going to be a value related one. As Disney increasingly optimizes the parks for profitability over guest experience. Eventually the word of mouth will be is all you do is stand in lines and people will just stop going.

Current management not visiting the parks and experiencing the park as a normal guest is going to lead to unfortunate outcomes to say the least.

I personally think it will be SWL which will cause the tipping point to be hit.

AS Yogi Berra used to say..."Nobody goes there any more, it is too crowded"

 

[winstongator]

I’m sure he makes a decent living from his service but he certainly puts a lot of effort into it being as great of a product as possible and I certainly don’t begrudge him of his success. If you listen to the podcast he goes into some detail on their process, and it’s certainly involved. I find it interesting and admirable that he’s coming out admitting that their projections have seen a sharp deviation from real world conditions.

I think he also has a day job.

 

[winstongator]

I talked with a manager from Operations a while back, and he told me that yeah, they artifically inflate (or deflate) wait times in order to draw people twords or away from a ride. This is something that most people guessed, but still.

The kiosks located in the queues where fastpasses and standby meet typically have the actual wait time and the display wait time for the cast members to see. It's not on every ride, but it's definitely there for some. One instance (FEA) I saw the real standby at 21 minutes while the display was at 30-45. If only someone could find a way to access the real numbers as a site/app.

TP & others crowdsource actual wait times.

 

[winstongator]

Ive found Len to be accurate the vast majority of time, but, as we all complain over and over and over, WDW has definitely been falling off on the service and staffing side compared to where they were. I am amazed some people can complain on one and then argue the opposite when it comes to the Guide.

Over the past decade we have all seen the this occur. Its not some secret. I can, honestly say, that it isn't just a reduction of staff, its that the staff on hand are very inefficient at load on many rides as well. Average dispatch time on many rides has noticeably increased, which only makes a reduced capacity even worse. Average dispatch on Pirates on my trip last year was over 1.5 minutes, which is absolute insanity for a ride that has no seat belts/restraints.

A decade ago is probably the worst comparison point. The economy was in terrible shape and hotel occupancy was in the midst of bottoming almost 10% below its norm.

Comparing to when I went as a kid, a long time ago, the knowledge to rope-drop combined with fp+ makes for a much more enjoyable day at the parks. I know I'm in the minority with that view.