Did I say anything about it other than it was a factor?
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Len Testa Crowd Analysis
- Thread starter GeneralKnowledge
- Start date
Disneyhead'71
Well-Known Member
If the 60% increase in wait times is directly corollary to attendance, I would expect to see WDW attendance figure to jump from 20 million last year to 32 million this year.
Does anyone think that actually happened?
Does anyone think that actually happened?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I hate to even mention this...and obviously there is a lot of work that needs to be done at the existing parks.... but maybe it's time Disney considers a 5th gate to help spread out crowds?
Capital outlay, labor, diminishing American vacation time and wealth, and longterm operational costs make that all but impossible
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
...if anyone does I have some magic beans to sell them
mikejs78
Well-Known Member
Along with a (more modest) attendance increase, it could also be a change in distribution. More people going in the 'slow times' and fewer during peak times.
I tend to think it's a combination of more visiters, change in distribution, Irma rebooks, and Disney scaling back capacity that contributed to the perfect storm that was Jan/Feb.
mikejs78
Well-Known Member
Vacation spend is up quite a bit to all time highs, actually. But otherwise I agree with you.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
And not really a big one at that...3% of the American population.
I'd say the shifting of public schools off the traditional Labor Day - Memorial Day schedule is a way bigger deal...
But hey, any Chance to make a misguided blanket political statement...
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I'm not saying less is being spent...I'm saying it's being spent by less people. Wdw is and always will be based on a mass model. That's why the Parks are YUGE!!!
mikejs78
Well-Known Member
The math is right, but you're correct that I was not looking at it from the designing of the attraction POV. But I was taking issue with your previous statement that one hour peak was all that mattered. And that different from what you just said above.
winstongator
Well-Known Member
Listen to Episode 100: The guy that invented FastPass from The Disney Dish with Jim Hill in Podcasts. https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-disney-dish-with-jim-hill/id452620851?mt=2&i=1000366078640
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Well if he said anything other than it was meant to push people into giftshops...he "misremembered"
ParentsOf4
Well-Known Member
Putting aside other factors, once an attraction's capacity is exceeded, its Standby wait time will continue to increase until the number of Guests entering the queue is less than the attraction's capacity.
It's why, for example, wait times generally increase in the morning, peak when the number of Guests entering the park roughly equals the number of Guests leaving the park, and then slowly decline later as Guests leave.
Then there's the human factor. As the 'cost' of an attraction increases (i.e. its wait time), fewer Guests are willing to pay that cost, causing lines to ebb and flow.
Those who visit WDW infrequently are more likely to pay any price (i.e. wait in line for any amount of time) in order to experience certain attractions. They have little clear vision as when they might return. If they don't experience (for example) Seven Dwarfs Mine Train on THIS trip, who knows when they will.
These infrequent Guests also are less experienced with FastPass+ and are less likely to maximize its potential. They might not realize that, for example, Seven Dwarfs Mine Train needs to be booked as early as possible.
The question becomes: When are these infrequent Guests likely to visit WDW? When they fear losing their jobs or when the economy is relatively healthy?
Die-hard WDW fans are addicted. They will visit WDW regardless of economic circumstances. They've experienced all attractions multiple times and are less likely to pay 'high' costs (i.e. wait in very long Standby lines.)
They also best understand how to utilize FastPass+ to gain advantages over those who do not. These frequent Guests are more likely to obtain the most desirable FastPast+ selections.
Added together, a relatively small increase in attendance among infrequent Guests due to an improving economy could cause wait times to increase disproportionately to attendance.
It's why, for example, wait times generally increase in the morning, peak when the number of Guests entering the park roughly equals the number of Guests leaving the park, and then slowly decline later as Guests leave.
Then there's the human factor. As the 'cost' of an attraction increases (i.e. its wait time), fewer Guests are willing to pay that cost, causing lines to ebb and flow.
Those who visit WDW infrequently are more likely to pay any price (i.e. wait in line for any amount of time) in order to experience certain attractions. They have little clear vision as when they might return. If they don't experience (for example) Seven Dwarfs Mine Train on THIS trip, who knows when they will.
These infrequent Guests also are less experienced with FastPass+ and are less likely to maximize its potential. They might not realize that, for example, Seven Dwarfs Mine Train needs to be booked as early as possible.
The question becomes: When are these infrequent Guests likely to visit WDW? When they fear losing their jobs or when the economy is relatively healthy?
Die-hard WDW fans are addicted. They will visit WDW regardless of economic circumstances. They've experienced all attractions multiple times and are less likely to pay 'high' costs (i.e. wait in very long Standby lines.)
They also best understand how to utilize FastPass+ to gain advantages over those who do not. These frequent Guests are more likely to obtain the most desirable FastPast+ selections.
Added together, a relatively small increase in attendance among infrequent Guests due to an improving economy could cause wait times to increase disproportionately to attendance.
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Disneyhead'71
Well-Known Member
I hear TDO has been slammed with complaints starting in Nov. with Jan./Feb. bringing a full on deluge of complaints. They are course correcting by increasing staffing and claiming it's for the Spring Break crowds when actually they are backing off the "right size staffing" theory a bit.
disneyflush
Well-Known Member
They know the historical numbers/daily numbers and apply them to staffing projections. That number seems like a black area but I'm sure on average they get it pretty close to correct in planning for it.
disneyflush
Well-Known Member
Assume it would take a drop in guest attendance and profit. The reason they would add more staff would be to fix the problem of lower guest attendance. Wouldn't that be ironic?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
As always...throwing their hands up when they drag the receiver down over the middle
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Having worked in that neighborhood in a previous life...they're pretty good at it...
I wonder now with the aggressive price increases over the last decade, how many offsiters now DON'T show up at all? I bet that number has climbed a lot
flynnibus
Premium Member
So you are now suggesting their are actually just as many people in Orlando in January as there is at peak time now?? Because the park is actually at saturation?
Or is it capacity is down... due to artificial scarcity
Because if it is as you want to keep defending.... run far away when it actually gets to REAL tourist season. If wdw can’t avoid saturation in January... what happens at Easter?
Your argument just reenforces that Disney isn’t running at the right capacity it needs to
flynnibus
Premium Member
flynnibus
Premium Member
This is my favorite.
People will advocate the shorter hours are justified because of the time of year.... then turn right back around and say “there is no more slow season”. Lol