Len Testa Crowd Analysis

[Master Yoda]

when the government fails at its job can you blame them? out of all the fancy things in life the one I wish I could afford was private school for my son....no mansion or car is worth as much as private school.

Did I say anything about it other than it was a factor?

 

[Disneyhead'71]

If the 60% increase in wait times is directly corollary to attendance, I would expect to see WDW attendance figure to jump from 20 million last year to 32 million this year.

Does anyone think that actually happened?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I hate to even mention this...and obviously there is a lot of work that needs to be done at the existing parks.... but maybe it's time Disney considers a 5th gate to help spread out crowds?

Capital outlay, labor, diminishing American vacation time and wealth, and longterm operational costs make that all but impossible

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

If the 60% increase in wait times is directly corollary to attendance, I would expect to see WDW attendance figure to jump from 20 million last year to 32 million this year.

Does anyone think that actually happened?

...if anyone does I have some magic beans to sell them

 

[mikejs78]

If the 60% increase in wait times is directly corollary to attendance, I would expect to see WDW attendance figure to jump from 20 million last year to 32 million this year.

Does anyone think that actually happened?

Along with a (more modest) attendance increase, it could also be a change in distribution. More people going in the 'slow times' and fewer during peak times.

I tend to think it's a combination of more visiters, change in distribution, Irma rebooks, and Disney scaling back capacity that contributed to the perfect storm that was Jan/Feb.

 

[mikejs78]

Capital outlay, labor, diminishing American vacation time and wealth, and longterm operational costs make that all but impossible

Vacation spend is up quite a bit to all time highs, actually. But otherwise I agree with you.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Did I say anything about it other than it was a factor?

And not really a big one at that...3% of the American population.

I'd say the shifting of public schools off the traditional Labor Day - Memorial Day schedule is a way bigger deal...

But hey, any Chance to make a misguided blanket political statement...

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Vacation spend is up quite a bit to all time highs, actually. But otherwise I agree with you.

I'm not saying less is being spent...I'm saying it's being spent by less people. Wdw is and always will be based on a mass model. That's why the Parks are YUGE!!!

 

[mikejs78]

You’re engaging in the same kind of bad math. You’ve created a scenario that demonstrates something completely different from what you are taking issue with. What you’ve described is an attraction that does not have enough capacity. You said peak design day hour was a bad basis of design, but nothing you wrote addresses how a 2,000 pph capacity is derived from a 3,000 people peak hour. You did it backwards, you picked a capacity and then made up demand models that it can’t handle instead of deriving your capacity from the demand model.

Knowing the shape of the day and your total demand informs the difference between your peak design hour and your capacity. This is where attractions per guest per hour comes into play, it is how you determine if 2,000 pph is desirable for a 3,000 people peak hour.

The math is right, but you're correct that I was not looking at it from the designing of the attraction POV. But I was taking issue with your previous statement that one hour peak was all that mattered. And that different from what you just said above.

 

[winstongator]

It wasn't motivated by guest experience. Fastpass was created to get your butt into a store or restaurant (or anywhere that you can spend money), and out of a line where you cannot. It definitely improved the experience, but that is not the reason that they spent the money to put the system in.

Listen to Episode 100: The guy that invented FastPass from The Disney Dish with Jim Hill in Podcasts. https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-disney-dish-with-jim-hill/id452620851?mt=2&i=1000366078640

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Listen to Episode 100: The guy that invented FastPass from The Disney Dish with Jim Hill in Podcasts. https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-disney-dish-with-jim-hill/id452620851?mt=2&i=1000366078640

Well if he said anything other than it was meant to push people into giftshops...he "misremembered"

 

[ParentsOf4]

Putting aside other factors, once an attraction's capacity is exceeded, its Standby wait time will continue to increase until the number of Guests entering the queue is less than the attraction's capacity.

It's why, for example, wait times generally increase in the morning, peak when the number of Guests entering the park roughly equals the number of Guests leaving the park, and then slowly decline later as Guests leave.

Then there's the human factor. As the 'cost' of an attraction increases (i.e. its wait time), fewer Guests are willing to pay that cost, causing lines to ebb and flow.

Those who visit WDW infrequently are more likely to pay any price (i.e. wait in line for any amount of time) in order to experience certain attractions. They have little clear vision as when they might return. If they don't experience (for example) Seven Dwarfs Mine Train on THIS trip, who knows when they will.

These infrequent Guests also are less experienced with FastPass+ and are less likely to maximize its potential. They might not realize that, for example, Seven Dwarfs Mine Train needs to be booked as early as possible.

The question becomes: When are these infrequent Guests likely to visit WDW? When they fear losing their jobs or when the economy is relatively healthy?

Die-hard WDW fans are addicted. They will visit WDW regardless of economic circumstances. They've experienced all attractions multiple times and are less likely to pay 'high' costs (i.e. wait in very long Standby lines.)

They also best understand how to utilize FastPass+ to gain advantages over those who do not. These frequent Guests are more likely to obtain the most desirable FastPast+ selections.

Added together, a relatively small increase in attendance among infrequent Guests due to an improving economy could cause wait times to increase disproportionately to attendance.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

I hear TDO has been slammed with complaints starting in Nov. with Jan./Feb. bringing a full on deluge of complaints. They are course correcting by increasing staffing and claiming it's for the Spring Break crowds when actually they are backing off the "right size staffing" theory a bit.
​

 

[disneyflush]

Does anyone know a figure for what the percentage of guests is that come from offsite hotels and locals? In reality that defines the limit of how far off their staffing projections could be. They know about everyone else.

They know the historical numbers/daily numbers and apply them to staffing projections. That number seems like a black area but I'm sure on average they get it pretty close to correct in planning for it.

 

[disneyflush]

What would it take for TDO to address the wait time and overcrowding situation? Massive complaints? Dropoffs in profits? Fights breaking out in line? None of the above?

Assume it would take a drop in guest attendance and profit. The reason they would add more staff would be to fix the problem of lower guest attendance. Wouldn't that be ironic?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I hear TDO has been slammed with complaints starting in Nov. with Jan./Feb. bringing a full on deluge of complaints. They are course correcting by increasing staffing and claiming it's for the Spring Break crowds when actually they are backing off the "right size staffing" theory a bit.​

​

As always...throwing their hands up when they drag the receiver down over the middle

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They know the historical numbers/daily numbers and apply them to staffing projections. That number seems like a black area but I'm sure on average they get it pretty close to correct in planning for it.

Having worked in that neighborhood in a previous life...they're pretty good at it...

I wonder now with the aggressive price increases over the last decade, how many offsiters now DON'T show up at all? I bet that number has climbed a lot

 

[flynnibus]

It's not a linear relationship. If a ride is operating below capacity, increased attendance can be absorbed without increasing wait times. If a ride is operating at capacity, 100% of the increased attendance will translate to increased wait times and crowding. If capacity is (relatively) fixed, a 10% increase in attendance will necessarily result in a greater than 10% increase of wait times and crowding. That's just the math.

So you are now suggesting their are actually just as many people in Orlando in January as there is at peak time now?? Because the park is actually at saturation?

Or is it capacity is down... due to artificial scarcity

Because if it is as you want to keep defending.... run far away when it actually gets to REAL tourist season. If wdw can’t avoid saturation in January... what happens at Easter?

Your argument just reenforces that Disney isn’t running at the right capacity it needs to

 

[flynnibus]

Actually, some people are trying to make the claim that the touring plans aren't ever accurate enough to be useful.

And some still insist the earth is flat. The conclusion is you can’t save everyone

 

[flynnibus]

I think his point is the old modicum of "trust disney...quality wins out" has been proven to be 100% obsolete.

That doesn't mean you hate it...or can't enjoy it...but ask the questions!!!

Why am I paying $120 for 3 hours on rides when the park should be open to midnight on February 15th because there are 3 hours waits at 3 pm???

"Question authority" and trust your instincts

This is my favorite.

People will advocate the shorter hours are justified because of the time of year.... then turn right back around and say “there is no more slow season”. Lol