78% of those hospitalized with covid were obese...
Not exactly correct.
78% of those hospitalized were overweight
or obese.
75% of the population is overweight
or obese.
78% is pretty darn close to 75%.
IMO, the CDC message was butchered. It should have focused attention on obesity, not overweight.
According to the CDC:
- 25% of the population is not overweight and made up 22% of hospitalizations. (22 / 25 = 0.88)
- 32% of the population is overweight and made up 28% of hospitalizations. (28 / 32 = 0.875)
- 43% of the population is obese and made up 50% of hospitalizations. (50 / 43 = 1.163)
The hospitalization rate is nearly the same for those who are overweight compared to those who are not. But it is higher for those who are obese.
Indeed, the CDC stated as much in its summary:
Among 148,494 U.S. adults with COVID-19, a nonlinear relationship was found between body mass index (BMI) and COVID-19 severity, with lowest risks at BMIs near the threshold between healthy weight and overweight in most instances, then increasing with higher BMI.
Per the CDC, the sweet spot was somewhere around the border between healthy and overweight. The CDC notes that risks increase with higher BMIs. But if the sweet spot is around the normal/overweight threshold, this means risks increase at lower BWIs as well, not a message that the CDC wants to send. Interestingly, buried later in the report is this nugget:
Patients with COVID-19 with underweight had a 20% (95% CI = 16%–25%) higher risk for hospitalization than did those with a healthy weight. Patients aged <65 years with underweight were 41% (95% CI = 31%–52%) more likely to be hospitalized than were those with a healthy weight, and patients aged ≥65 years with underweight were 7% (95% CI = 4%–10%) more likely to be hospitalized.
In other words,
younger underweight people were
41% more likely to be hospitalized. Certainly this was worthy of a headline or two.
One of the interesting factoids from the CDC website is that the elderly tend to be less obese than most other age groups. (Not to be morbid, but possibly because the obese are less likely to survive into old age.)
Yet the elderly are disproportionately likely to be hospitalized or die from COVID.
We have a combination younger people more likely to be obese, and obese people more likely to be hospitalized.
This suggests there is a strong correlation between obesity and hospitalizations.
But there also is a correlation between being
underweight and hospitalizations.
Understandably, the CDC wants people to lose weight. However, the CDC did itself a disservice in this instance by lumping in those who are overweight with those who are obese, while ignoring in their summary the issue with those who are underweight. With 75% of the population already being overweight or obese, the last thing the CDC wants to say is "some of you need to put on a little weight".
"78%" is a bigger number than "50%", so news agencies went with a (IMO) sensationalized headline of "78%".