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Jim Hill discusses Disney's Jungle Trek
- Thread starter krankenstein
- Start date
PeterAlt
Well-Known Member
There are some on another thread here who argue that there will never be a fifth gate. My stand on this has always been and remains that there will eventually be a fifth and even a sixth gate once economic and other conditions are ripe for it. My prediction is that this will happen in the early 20's or later years of this decade for the fifth park and a decade (give or take a few years) thereafter for the sixth gate. The size of the gate is irrelevant to my prediction. The fact that the project mentioned here is being taken seriously is evidence that a fifth gate is indeed still on table for consideration. That doesn't mean it will happen, but rules out that it definately won't happen. When the economics are right, no executive in their right mind won't jump at the chance to build it. If it's this project or another one, you can bet on it happening.
Not too long ago, I predicted on another message board that Star Wars Episode 7 will be made and will get released around 2015. The people there - big Star Wars fans - said I was crazy and didn't know what I was talking about. After all the energy they spent trying to attack me and all the fruitless energy I spent trying to defend my prediction, it is now very clear I was right.
For the record, I've predicted many things, many against popular opinion. I've always been right. I have a 100% track record with countless predictions. The day I am ever wrong will be the day I stop making predictions.
unkadug
Follower of "Saget"The Cult
Had it already tanked in 2008?
Texas84
Well-Known Member
Yes. Housing bubble popped and bailouts were in effect.
Housing prices peaked in early 2006. They began a slow decline until 12/30/2008 where they took their largest plunge in history. They are just starting to come back slowly in the more harder hit areas.
Cosmic Commando
Well-Known Member
The problem with your statement is the size of the gate does matter. If we accept your assertion that the size of the gate does not matter that was ex-post-facto'ed in after these other people made their statements, it makes it look like they're saying that nothing will ever be built at WDW ever again. You seem to think that Disney can only build full theme parks that resemble what we have seen before. Is the original Pleasure Island a "gate"? It was fenced off and charged admission. No rides? How about DisneyQuest? It has rides. Didn't adhere to the mantra that all of the four main parks are worth the same price? What if Disney builds a Discovery Cove, where admission is 5x a normal park but only lets in 1,000 per day? It's not all black and white.
The problem with saying "there will never be a fifth or sixth gate" is that the poster is probably conflating that with "it would be a bad idea to build a fifth or sixth gate". I agree with the second statement, but I could totally see a situation where a desperate TDO or TWDC greenlights a half-baked park just to be able to play that chip in marketing. Even if WDW loses some of its sheen in the public eye (setting aside the question of how far down that road we are already), I think the words "brand new theme park" would be powerful. Cheapo park didn't work with DCA so Disney would never try that again? 1. Never say never 2. DHS or DAK probably wouldn't hold up right next door to Disneyland with that demanding clientele, either.
PeterAlt
Well-Known Member
Let's not confuse what I would like to see happen with what will probably happen. Often the two are not the same. My prediction is defined by whatever Disney defines as their definition of a fifth park. If they market a Discovery Cove-like $300 per person as the fifth park, then this is covered by my prediction, even if we (including myself) disagree on that definition.
According to Jim's article, this is the second Imagineering of said project. Both Imagineering were done at a time when the US economy had been anything but bright.
Fast forward into the future when there's been a turn-around for the economy and business is booming everywhere. In this future, the parks are at capacity or over-capacity. The hotels are sold out. Universal and Sea World are taking advantage of Disney's capacity issues and wooing guests to vacation over there instead. The market is easier to sell bonds to or loan money from. Interest is at an all-time low. Seeing these conditions, whoever the CEO at Disney will be will likely send the Imagineers back to the drawing boards and ask them to Imagineer something grander, something that could be marketed to a wider mass of people more in line with the existing parks. Something that would fix the capacity problem and keep the guests from deserting to Universal or Sea World.
I'm not predicting this will happen. I would like it to. But this is a possible scenario of what could happen.
Californian Elitist
Well-Known Member
They sure wouldn't.
Cosmic Commando
Well-Known Member
The thing is, now it's harder to see a scenario where you run out of expansion pads in FOUR theme parks. There is so much space that is either shuttered completely or underutilized with unpopular attractions without even touching a greenfield.
71jason
Well-Known Member
That was back in 2008, maybe they quit doing it by now.
Patricia Melton
Well-Known Member
I think you are very much right about this.
I never thought about any of this until I read this thread, but I bet a fifth park in the future will end up being something like this...a $300/day "experiential" park that has a limited number of guests per day and caters to a higher-end crowd. It would be a Ritz-Carlton/Four Seasons kind of park...where the other parks are a Marriott/Hyatt kind of level.
I never got to experience the Disney Institute, but this fifth park would maybe have some of that vibe to it: but the emphasis would be more things you can do, instead of learning. Clearly, people didn't want to come to Orlando to learn things at the Institute...but they would want to come to this fifth park to do things that they could never do in any other theme park. The feeding the hippos, rock climbing, zip lines, etc.
A long time ago my son and I had a very long talk about what a fifth park in Orlando would look like. We knocked around about a half dozen ideas for what they could do, but I don't remember them all. Some of the things I do recall us talking about had the fifth park being:
* a Star Wars themed park with a lot of thrill rides
* a Coasters park, with high-adrenaline rides specifically targeting that sort of crowd
* the Experiential Park...which would be very expensive and would include all the things that you just can't do in regular parks because of the expense involved in doing this for the general public
I really think if they ever do build that fifth park, the admission would be $500/day.
It would be a park with the 'Adventures by Disney' branding to it.
Gabe1
Ivory Tower Squabble EST 2011. WINDMILL SURVIVOR
Disney had something real good with the Institute but Disney became to greedy and it bit them. The Institute was high end for us and then we had to pay to get into the parks, full price. You could only do so much Institute in a day. I believe the Institute would have made it if it included park after 4pm admission or something like that. It is a shame. My son loved the trek but he had the CM rate and even the $100 he paid, he felt was pricey. I've seen the Photo CD and I wan't impressed. Take a camera with that you have found a way to anchor to your person. Think you will like the photo's more.
menamechris
Well-Known Member
I would hope Disney has watched and learned. Niche/boutique parks carry a huge amount of risk - and are almost guaranteed to struggle once your demographic has experienced it once. And Disney only need to look up I-4 to see this. Discovery Cove is in a constant state of promotion and discounting. Florida residents can get insane deals year-round, and they have had to restructure the package so that it INCLUDES Sea World and Aquatica. Clearly, consumers were not satisfied dropping that kind of cash for just one park/day, and must have been speaking with their wallets. I am sure Disney would have to do the same thing if they decided to go that route with a park. Even guest interest in their tour Wild Africa Trek (which I believe was based off the Night Kingdom concept), has slowed considerably - forcing Disney to cut back the number of tours per day and give deep discounts for it even during peak periods. You don't have that option when you have built an entire park - you have to keep the place running and the guest numbers high to keep it operational. That may be hard to do after a few years once everyone who is actually interested in it has already done it...
csm
Well-Known Member
Clearly, you are not familiar with any actual consumers of Discovery Cove. While I myself have not gone, I have literally never encountered a single person who didn't have RAVE reviews of their experience. I've even asked if they felt it was wort the price, and without fail, the answer is always "absolutely." Does it alienate those of us who cannot afford to drop that kind of dough on a one day experience? Yes, of course it does. That's part of why I've never gone - but there's no dening that if you *can* afford it, it's worth the money for the experience you walk away with.
And to make a statement implying they are having trouble getting people in the gate could not be farther from the truth. Promotions to suppose locals do not always equal bad business. Sometimes it's more about being a good neighbor. The truth is it's still sometimes difficult to get into Discovery Cove on some days. Could Disney do it better? Yes, I think they could. Is this something on the table that they are currently working on and/or planning to build? No, it is not.
Cosmic Commando
Well-Known Member
Sounds like the current parks in the future. The price more so than the quality.
Patricia Melton
Well-Known Member
I can think of a few times in life when my husband and I paid a very large sum for something and it was really worth it because it was truly a "once in a lifetime" experience. One of those times was when we went to the Grand Canyon with our two kids and we splurged on doing the mule ride to the bottom of the Canyon and back up again. This was something we had to book many, many month in advance and my husband even had to lose 50 pounds to be able to ride the mules (since there was a weight limit cut-off and he had to be under 200lbs). So it was not just a financial investment, but a time investment as I think it took him 8 months to lose the 50 pounds.
This was probably 1985 or maybe 1986. I remember the cost for the one day mule ride trip was $250/person and no discounts for the kids...so for the four of us that was $1,000 for the day. It was a LOT of money to us back then...but my husband had always wanted to do this mule ride to the bottom of the Canyon and we both knew this was probably the only trip we'd ever take as a family to that part of the country. We also wanted to give the kids a trip they would never forget and would remember the rest of their lives.
I have never regretted this adventure because I can still remember what it was like to ride to the bottom of the Canyon. And all through their lives my kids have never met anyone else who had a similar life experience. Whenever anyone talks about doing something unusual or exciting, my kids can talk about this mule ride in the Canyon...and I think that $1,000 we spent was an investment in our kids lives for the long term.
I've never been to Discovery Cove because I have always thought it was just about touching dolphins, which doesn't appeal to me. I have never been a Sea World person. They used to have one of those here in Ohio and I hated going there. I thought it smelled bad and I never cared much for seeing the whale and dolphin shows.
I can't think of an experience that Disney would have at a "Jungle Trek" that would make me clamor to pay $300/person to participate in. I think the only thing that I would probably enjoy would be to do a night safari thing, which would be very creepy and kind of scary. If they could really recreate the serengetti with the hyenas and things that come out at night and make you feel like you were really able to see these things in action at night (in a way that was actually safe, but I still felt danger) then I would pay to do that.
But aside from that, I don't know if a "Jungle Trek" would appeal to me anymore than "Discovery Cove" does.
Patricia Melton
Well-Known Member
"For that price" = such a tired cliche.
Not everything in life can be free. And truly extraordinary things cost money. They are not everyday things that you do...but once in a lifetime (for most people) experiences.
I've heard that Super Bowl tickets are very expensive. Would you say "for that price" you should get to take home a football player too?
Patricia Melton
Well-Known Member
I don't think the regular parks will ever get to be more than $100/day in my lifetime. I'd be very surprised if the park tickets for MK, DAK, DHS, or EPCOT ever crossed that psychological $100/day threshold.
I do think that within 10 years they will be at $99.95/day. But I think they will hover there for a very long time.
I know if the tickets got to be over $100/day that my family would probably eliminate one of our Disney parks days during our trips to Orlando. We'd either do a pool day or we'd maybe find something else to do in town or even eliminate one of our vacation days. That would be our response to tickets over $100/day...we'd eliminate one of the days in the parks and save our family $600, as it's usually my husband and kids and my niece and nephew on a trip.