Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Just 4 years ago every guest at the park had access to fastpass. And every guest at a Disney hotel could book 3 in advance. Those are both far fewer than the number of deluxe resort guests. I don’t think the guest to capacity ratio has gotten so out of whack since then so as to make such a plan untenable.

It didn’t work

 

[networkpro]

I’m hoping for hot temp when I attend in July. Don’t fancy over the 100. Mid 90s is more than enough

Your Northern clime definition of 'hot' doesn't face the reality of the South.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Got a boathouse res for 7 at 5:45…on a Saturday without a Gate Paywall in front of it

That happens all the time. Something always opens up, someone cancels, etc. especially for small parties.

 

[peter11435]

Wait times are a function of:
1. The number of people in the queue.
2. Seats per minute thruput.

If there are 100 people in line with the equivalent of 2 seats per minute dispatched, wait time is 50 minutes.

If a Brazilian tour group crashes the line and the queue rises to 180 people, the wait time grows to 90 minutes. Time to add more another vehicle to increase seats and lower wait time.

OR

Sell 80 LL passes.

Basic mass balance.

Yes, but seats per minute is not a constant at any attraction and at many attractions it can fluctuate widely. Also there is not just one line, and the line with the estimated wait time is the one that gets the lowest percentage of those seats.

 

[Jrb1979]

Yes, but seats per minute is not a constant at any attraction and at many attractions it can fluctuate widely. Also there is not just one line, and the line with the estimated wait time is the one that gets the lowest percentage of those seats.

Blah blah blah. Get to the point and tell us how they calculate it

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That happens all the time. Something always opens up, someone cancels, etc. especially for small parties.

I only have my experience of it NOT happening a couple of times. But I take your word it does happen.

Saturday of a 3 day weekend? Probably 15 restaurants on open table available?

Gideons doing walk up only?

Not alot of people here

It is what it is

 

[rtmachine]

It didn’t work

My idea of free ILL or FP+ was for resort guests only, not for everyone.
If attendance is really down and with the new DAS rules opening up the Lightning Lanes, then they could offer it in blocks just like any other promotions.... for resort guests only, that would help fill the rooms.
Maybe that's the plan with the DAS stuff....genie + doesn't sell out now and probably won't most of the year but families staying on property spend $$$$..more than enough to replace wishing that everybody buys G+.
Bundle it with Dining plan and you go back to when a Disney vacation was something special instead of whatever it is now, which is not that special anymore.
Plus the free FP+'s would help all those that previously would get DAS with the old system.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

My idea of free ILL or FP+ was for resort guests only, not for everyone.
If attendance is really down and with the new DAS rules opening up the Lightning Lanes, then they could offer it in blocks just like any other promotions.... for resort guests only, that would help fill the rooms.
Maybe that's the plan with the DAS stuff....genie + doesn't sell out now and probably won't most of the year but families staying on property spend $$$$..more than enough to replace wishing that everybody buys G+.
Bundle it with Dining plan and you go back to when a Disney vacation was something special instead of whatever it is now, which is not that special anymore.
Plus the free FP+'s would help all those that previously would get DAS with the old system.

For the price of your room…you get your room. They have no desire to incentivize it further

 

[JD80]

Wait times are a function of:
1. The number of people in the queue.
2. Seats per minute thruput.

If there are 100 people in line with the equivalent of 2 seats per minute dispatched, wait time is 50 minutes.

If a Brazilian tour group crashes the line and the queue rises to 180 people, the wait time grows to 90 minutes. Time to add more another vehicle to increase seats and lower wait time.

OR

Sell 80 LL passes.

Basic mass balance.

As a systems engineer, that's not how I would calculate it because each ride does not operate within a vacuum. No idea how WDW does it or should do it. I'm involved with automation within manufacturing and warehousing logistics.

 

[rtmachine]

For the price of your room…you get your room. They have no desire to incentivize it further

so you are saying they are fully booked year round ?
The posts in this thread suggest otherwise.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

so you are saying they are fully booked year round ?
The posts in this thread suggest otherwise.

Nope…but they decided they don’t want to beg for your business

They jack up the prices and give you the kohls discount…that’s the deal

…anything else goes to the genie

 

[rtmachine]

Nope…but they decided they don’t want to beg for your business

They jack up the prices and give you the kohls discount…that’s the deal

…anything else goes to the genie

You must be pretty high up in the WDW organization to have all this inside information of what they will or won't consider as promotions to increase income.

 

[James Alucobond]

You must be pretty high up in the WDW organization to have all this inside information of what they will or won't consider as promotions to increase income.

 

[Nubs70]

Yes, but seats per minute is not a constant at any attraction and at many attractions it can fluctuate widely. Also there is not just one line, and the line with the estimated wait time is the one that gets the lowest percentage of those seats.

At any point a position indicator is tripped by vehicle 1, the time the between the same indicator by vehicle #2 defines how many seats per minute at which the attraction is operating.

If not all seats are occupied, that is a operational protocol issue. Once wait time reaches 20 minutes, all seats should be occupied.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You must be pretty high up in the WDW organization to have all this inside information of what they will or won't consider as promotions to increase income.

Just the pattern for 5 years…what are you seeing?

 

[Disone]

For the price of your room…you get your room. They have no desire to incentivize it further

Well according to some the occupancy is very low. If that is so then it's not so matter of fact that they have zero desire to incentivize bookings. Disney has definitely discounted before and if push comes to shove they will discount again.

His speculation here is they may want to incentivize using LL either in lieu of or in addition to the discounting. And given the amount of people here who are very authoritatively stated that occupancy is down ..... I honestly do not think that is an unreasonable speculation

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well according to some the occupancy is very low. If that is so then it's not so matter of fact that they have zero desire to incentivize bookings. Disney has definitely discounted before and if push comes to shove they will discount again.

His speculation here is they may want to incentivize using LL either in lieu of or in addition to the discounting. And given the amount of people here who are very authoritatively stated that occupancy is down ..... I honestly do not think that is an unreasonable speculation

They’re already discounting and their attendance went into the tank on their forecasts no LATER than 2022…

But yet…nothing…

I get the idea that the blessed fastpass from the crapper months in advance was great…

…but from a numbers point it did not work well…and now they charge for it. Deal breaker.

There will be some form of that coming…and nothing is “impossible”…but it’s gonna be paid.

Not likely to get you to book a room at port orleans. It’s more like you get it if you buy 150 dvc points

 

[peter11435]

At any point a position indicator is tripped by vehicle 1, the time the between the same indicator by vehicle #2 defines how many seats per minute at which the attraction is operating.

If not all seats are occupied, that is an operational protocol issue. Once wait time reaches 20 minutes, all seats should be occupied.

Time between vehicles is rarely constant and can vary wildly at some attractions. Attractions like POTC and FEA do not dispatch at constant intervals. Attractions like HM and SSE stop and slow at random times for random lengths to accommodate guests. Some attractions have numbers of vehicles that may fluctuate during operation.

Filling all seats is always a goal but for many attractions an operational impossibility. Largely dictated by party sizes.

Many of you want to ignore numerous operational variables that have huge impacts on attraction wait times. This isn’t roller coaster tycoon. These are real machines, operated by real people, carrying real guests. Guest gets sick in a guardians vehicle and boom, you’re suddenly operating at reduced capacity for a period of time.

And again that pesky problem of standby being the smallest source of attraction throughput.

 

[Disone]

They’re already discounting and their attendance went into the tank on their forecasts no LATER than 2022…

But yet…nothing…

I get the idea that the blessed fastpass from the crapper months in advance was great…

…but from a numbers point it did not work well…and now they charge for it. Deal breaker.

There will be some form of that coming…and nothing is “impossible”…but it’s gonna be paid.

Not likely to get you to book a room at port orleans. It’s more like you get it if you buy 150 dvc points don't know the specifics on 2022 but fiscal 2023 was largely a success for the Walt Disney World resorts. At over 9 million room nights at a Walt Disney World resort owned hotel room, (No swan no dolphin no hotel plaza, just Disney or DVC) WDW's annual occupancy for fiscal 2023 in its was around 90%. This is well above the US national average.

I can't speak specifically to 2022 but A source let me in on fiscal 2023 's annual occupancy.

In 2023 they claim they had over 9 million room nights on property in a Disney owned room. This is a 90% occupancy.

Ps I did want to check this math. So I went to touring plan site. seems as though Walt Disney World, including the campsites and the villas, has a bit over 28000 hotel rooms.

28000 room x 90% 25200 room per night

25200 rooms sold per day x 365 days = 9,198,000 room sold.

According to Google the national occupancy rate is about 66%, so. Even if you fudge this number a little bit. They are way above the national average.

I interested to see how soft 2024 is going to be in regards to number of rooms sell. 2023 benefited by still riding a wave of revenge travel while having the highest amount of rooms available post covid shut down.

The question is how much lower will 2024 be and will it trigger all sorts of fun discounts.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I can't speak specifically to 2022 but A source let me in on fiscal 2023 's annual occupancy.

In 2023 they claim they had over 9 million room nights on property in a Disney owned room. This is a 90% occupancy.

Ps I did want to check this math. So I went to touring plan site. seems as though Walt Disney World, including the campsites and the villas, has a bit over 28000 hotel rooms.

28000 room x 90% 25200 room per night

25200 rooms sold per day x 365 days = 9,198,000 room sold.

According to Google the national occupancy rate is about 66%, so. Even if you fudge this number a little bit. They are way above the national average.

I interested to see how soft 2024 is going to be in regards to number of rooms sell. 2023 benefited by still riding a wave of revenge travel while having the highest amount of rooms available post covid shut down.

The question is how much lower will 2024 be and will it trigger all sorts of fun discounts.

But when did people book those 2023 rooms? Was my point. The lead time is typically 12-18 months. Not all of them…but the bulk. So by 2022 they would have known attendance would be on the decline for 2023…

And it was. By their own admission in quarterlies.

And did you just compare Disney hotels to the rest of the country?

That’s not the standard. Those rooms must be occupied to feed their own internal profit engine. That’s why a dip is catastrophic