Anecdotal: but I’ve heard lots of references to DAS “on the street” in the last few months
My spider sense tells me it’s being abused as a back door around the genie
I aasume (probably shouldn't!) that they take predicted Genie+ usage into account when they guesstimate wait times - how do they account for DAS usage? I believe
@lentesta mentioned that DAS was causing some issues??
We all know that Genie+ gives each person a 1-hour time window to return and ride.
I've talked with developers who have a
really detailed look at how ride capacity is allocated in Genie+. And I'm told that the maximum rate of capacity allocation is around 300 guests per hour per ride. I haven't been able to get that verified independently, so take that with a grain of salt.
That said, we've been counting interarrival times by minute at the MK for a while.
Here's what we observed this past Wednesday (9/13):
- Haunted Mansion(5 pm - 6 pm)
- Standby line: 710 guests
- Lightning Lane: 923 guests
- Buzz Lightyear (6 pm - 7 pm)
- Standby line: 792 guests
- Lightning Lane: 514 guests
- Space Mountain (7 pm - 8 pm)
- Standby line: 590 guests
- Lightning Lane: 1,050 guests
- Pirates (5 pm - 6 pm)
- Standby line: 949 guests
- Lightning Lane: 821 guests
- Jungle Cruise(6 pm - 7 pm)
- Standby line: 657 guests
- Lightning Lane: 633 guests
- Seven Dwarfs Mine Train (7 pm - 8 pm)
- Standby line: 763 guests
- Lightning Lane: 888 guests
- Peter Pan's Flight (8 pm - 9 pm)
- Standby line: 336 guests
- Lightning Lane: 723 guests
Space Mountain and Peter Pan jump out as outliers:
- 64% of guests are using LL during that hour at Space
- 68% at Peter Pan are using LL
Let's assume that all 300 G+ spots for those attractions for that hour were taken by guests. That's 1,050-300 = 750 guests who used the LL via something other than Genie+ at Space, and 723-300 = 423 guests at Peter Pan.
We keep track of how many VIP tour groups enter the line each hour. Those numbers are negligble - they're usually 0 per hour, and never more than 40 guests. It was 0 during this hour for both attractions
Child swap could be part of those numbers, too, and it's difficult to separate those out from DAS. But I'm guessing the child-swap numbers at Peter Pan's Flight are close to 0.
So 750 of the 1,650 guests (45%) who got in line for Space Mountain during that hour were not using VIP tours, standby, or Genie+. And 423 of the 1,059 guests (40%) at Peter Pan's Flight.
The average US household size is somewhere between 2 and 3 people, according to the
Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Wealthier households, which have the money to visit Walt Disney World, average 3 people, while less wealthy households have 2.) Let's say 2.5 people to keep the math simple.
The research I've found says that somewhere between 13% (
source) and 25% (
source) of the US population has a disablity. And that 25% counts all disabilities - mobility, hearing, vision, etc., many of which don't qualify for DAS.
Let's assume that
every DAS guest has a disability that impacts their ability to stand in line. (That's obviously not true, but it's often helpful to assume the worst case scenario). So they all qualify and need DAS.
And let's assume that the guest population in the MK is representative of the US as a whole. (It's not. People receiving
Social Security disablility, for example, are significantly older and more likely to live alone. But again, let's go with the worst case scenario.)
So we'd expect a maximum of between 33% (13% x 2.5 people) and 63% (25% x 2.5 people) of the people in the park to be using DAS.
We're above the low end of that worst-case scenario for both Space and Peter Pan's Flight. But not, you know, really high capacity rides like Pirates or Buzz. (Why??)
I mean, WDW is a once-in-a-lifetime trip for lots of us. I can see how that would draw families with disabliiites who wouldn't, you know, go to the beach the same way.
But any time we're in the range of "everything has to go wrong for these data to be true", you want to look at other explanations. And one is that people will ask for DAS because it's cheaper, easier, and more flexible than using Genie+.
I could be wrong with all of this. Let me know if y'all see anything off.