Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

Bastet

Bastet

Active Member
I aasume (probably shouldn't!) that they take predicted Genie+ usage into account when they guesstimate wait times - how do they account for DAS usage? I believe @lentesta mentioned that DAS was causing some issues??
 
nickys

nickys

Premium Member
Thepuma said:
It's actually yourself who has misunderstood the app. If a ride hasn't opened yet, it will show a Genie time and a standby lane greyed out. If a ride is down/delayed opening a red warning note shows above where the time would be.

As a say, people need to understand the system before comment8ng on the system as that is where false information can be given.
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Pretty sure that wasn’t my experience.

But you should get to the parks now. I just checked and not a single ride is down in any of the parks!
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Dranth said:
There are a few of those, but not many. More often around here the less jaded, more balanced views are depicted as being defensive by the same group of people who are so far down the hate rabbit hole, they seem to have a hard time seeing anything but what they want. No room for objectivity when you are dealing with folks that have already decided everything is awful no matter what the company does.

What's funny to me is I don't even think that group is entirely wrong, there are issues, but it has really turned into a boy who cried wolf situation. People could have some good points but they shoot themselves in the foot by being so over the top negative about everything that it is hard to not outright dismiss anything they say.

My favorite are the ones who try to tell others we are part of the problem by going when they are on their 2nd or 3rd trip for the year, posting from their DVC room, after getting back from an after hours party.
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I can’t argue with any of that…not one bit and I’m adding to that “recipe”

The poster I quoted had a very valid point: everyone should always look for the positives when they travel.

My issue is once you get home…and in the future: do what makes sense as the consumer. When things are bad - reject them. Everyone is better off.

We are well past time for blind loyalty for a company being run this badly - until they fix that
 
T

Thepuma

Well-Known Member
nickys said:
Pretty sure that wasn’t my experience.

But you should get to the parks now. I just checked and not a single ride is down in any of the parks!
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Nothing to do with experience it's fact...if a ride is before park opening it says in grey 'standby line not currently offered'...if the ride is down it says in red 'Temporarily cloaed'.

That's jist how the system works, not my, yours, or anyone else's 'experience'

To be honest, Disney don't exactly help with their wording.
 
nickys

nickys

Premium Member
Thepuma said:
Nothing to do with experience it's fact...if a ride is before park opening it says in grey 'standby line not currently offered'...if the ride is down it says in red 'Temporarily cloaed'.

That's jist how the system works, not my, yours, or anyone else's 'experience'

To be honest, Disney don't exactly help with their wording.
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I’ll try and look tomorrow. I don’t understand why you can be so sure “how it works”. Do you have a screenshot of the rides that simply weren’t open at the same time? Since all your screen shots showed the same thing I’m having a hard time believing ALL rides wee down at that time - unless you found a filter to use.
 
eliza61nyc

eliza61nyc

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
I can’t argue with any of that…not one bit and I’m adding to that “recipe”

The poster I quoted had a very valid point: everyone should always look for the positives when they travel.

My issue is once you get home…and in the future: do what makes sense as the consumer. When things are bad - reject them. Everyone is better off.

We are well past time for blind loyalty for a company being run this badly - until they fix that
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But what if things weren't bad? I got hone yesterday. We had zero issues, I took pics of every bathroom I went in. All clean. We had no rides down, although I will say I don't ride RnR so I don't follow it closely.
Cast members were super, had two that went above and beyond ( so much so that I left them a token of my gratitude)
And we rode every single ride we wanted to except Toy story roller-coaster. That was due to a long wait time.

Why is your assumptions automatically that everyone is having YOUR experience?

Unfortunately next year we're doing Yosemite but we're already picking our 2025 dates
😁 I may sneak down without the kiddies to get my fix
 
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Thepuma

Well-Known Member
nickys said:
I’ll try and look tomorrow. I don’t understand why you can be so sure “how it works”. Do you have a screenshot of the rides that simply weren’t open at the same time? Since all your screen shots showed the same thing I’m having a hard time believing ALL rides wee down at that time - unless you found a filter to use.
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Because for 16 days I've been rope dropping Disney parks as a resort guest and so I've seen how the MDE Tip Board looks like before and after the official opening time in the parks.
 
lentesta

lentesta

Premium Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
Anecdotal: but I’ve heard lots of references to DAS “on the street” in the last few months

My spider sense tells me it’s being abused as a back door around the genie
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Bastet said:
I aasume (probably shouldn't!) that they take predicted Genie+ usage into account when they guesstimate wait times - how do they account for DAS usage? I believe @lentesta mentioned that DAS was causing some issues??
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We all know that Genie+ gives each person a 1-hour time window to return and ride.

I've talked with developers who have a really detailed look at how ride capacity is allocated in Genie+. And I'm told that the maximum rate of capacity allocation is around 300 guests per hour per ride. I haven't been able to get that verified independently, so take that with a grain of salt.

That said, we've been counting interarrival times by minute at the MK for a while.

Here's what we observed this past Wednesday (9/13):
  • Haunted Mansion(5 pm - 6 pm)
    • Standby line: 710 guests
    • Lightning Lane: 923 guests
  • Buzz Lightyear (6 pm - 7 pm)
    • Standby line: 792 guests
    • Lightning Lane: 514 guests
  • Space Mountain (7 pm - 8 pm)
    • Standby line: 590 guests
    • Lightning Lane: 1,050 guests
  • Pirates (5 pm - 6 pm)
    • Standby line: 949 guests
    • Lightning Lane: 821 guests
  • Jungle Cruise(6 pm - 7 pm)
    • Standby line: 657 guests
    • Lightning Lane: 633 guests
  • Seven Dwarfs Mine Train (7 pm - 8 pm)
    • Standby line: 763 guests
    • Lightning Lane: 888 guests
  • Peter Pan's Flight (8 pm - 9 pm)
    • Standby line: 336 guests
    • Lightning Lane: 723 guests
Space Mountain and Peter Pan jump out as outliers:
  • 64% of guests are using LL during that hour at Space
  • 68% at Peter Pan are using LL
Let's assume that all 300 G+ spots for those attractions for that hour were taken by guests. That's 1,050-300 = 750 guests who used the LL via something other than Genie+ at Space, and 723-300 = 423 guests at Peter Pan.

We keep track of how many VIP tour groups enter the line each hour. Those numbers are negligble - they're usually 0 per hour, and never more than 40 guests. It was 0 during this hour for both attractions

Child swap could be part of those numbers, too, and it's difficult to separate those out from DAS. But I'm guessing the child-swap numbers at Peter Pan's Flight are close to 0.

So 750 of the 1,650 guests (45%) who got in line for Space Mountain during that hour were not using VIP tours, standby, or Genie+. And 423 of the 1,059 guests (40%) at Peter Pan's Flight.

The average US household size is somewhere between 2 and 3 people, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Wealthier households, which have the money to visit Walt Disney World, average 3 people, while less wealthy households have 2.) Let's say 2.5 people to keep the math simple.

The research I've found says that somewhere between 13% (source) and 25% (source) of the US population has a disablity. And that 25% counts all disabilities - mobility, hearing, vision, etc., many of which don't qualify for DAS.

Let's assume that every DAS guest has a disability that impacts their ability to stand in line. (That's obviously not true, but it's often helpful to assume the worst case scenario). So they all qualify and need DAS.

And let's assume that the guest population in the MK is representative of the US as a whole. (It's not. People receiving Social Security disablility, for example, are significantly older and more likely to live alone. But again, let's go with the worst case scenario.)

So we'd expect a maximum of between 33% (13% x 2.5 people) and 63% (25% x 2.5 people) of the people in the park to be using DAS.

We're above the low end of that worst-case scenario for both Space and Peter Pan's Flight. But not, you know, really high capacity rides like Pirates or Buzz. (Why??)

I mean, WDW is a once-in-a-lifetime trip for lots of us. I can see how that would draw families with disabliiites who wouldn't, you know, go to the beach the same way.

But any time we're in the range of "everything has to go wrong for these data to be true", you want to look at other explanations. And one is that people will ask for DAS because it's cheaper, easier, and more flexible than using Genie+.

I could be wrong with all of this. Let me know if y'all see anything off.
 
T

Thepuma

Well-Known Member
nickys said:
Pretty sure that wasn’t my experience.

But you should get to the parks now. I just checked and not a single ride is down in any of the parks!
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Yep, and that is the reason why we know the 'delayed openings' are pre planned and done for very good reason by Disney.

ToT was delayed for the first hour - was that a genuine 'mechanical issue' again at park open? Or yet again just what Disney do at park open. Because it's very very often the case that 1 ride is always delayed...between ToT, RnRC and Rise.

To be fair, it's not only Disney, Universal do it too.

Like this morning- Hagrids delayed opening for over an hour. Had a long chat with the cast member at the front of the queue - he said it was technical issues- To which I asked when the Engineers actually arrive in the morning to start testing...he said they are there 24/7 and work through the night. Which begs the question, if they are working through the night, how on earth can they not get the ride open for 8.30am?...and also, if they are there 24/7 (which they arent) - how come they only ever send the 1st test cart round 5 minutes before opening time?....surely if they were in early they would be sending test carts round at 6am and then seeing if there are issues so they can be rectified before the damn park opens...not do it 5 minutes before the park opens? The worker said "fair point"

He also said he previously worked for Disney and told me some of the stunts the company pull over there, which conformed my suspicions. Obviously he is a previous employee and may bear a grudge, but no smoke without fire.

Most of the delayed starts in Universal and Disney are pre-planned - you'd have to be very thick skinned not to realise that by now...or think every single coincidence is just that.
 
L

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Thepuma said:
Yep, and that is the reason why we know the 'delayed openings' are pre planned and done for very good reason by Disney.

ToT was delayed for the first hour - was that a genuine 'mechanical issue' again at park open? Or yet again just what Disney do at park open. Because it's very very often the case that 1 ride is always delayed...between ToT, RnRC and Rise.

To be fair, it's not only Disney, Universal do it too.

Like this morning- Hagrids delayed opening for over an hour. Had a long chat with the cast member at the front of the queue - he said it was technical issues- To which I asked when the Engineers actually arrive in the morning to start testing...he said they are there 24/7 and work through the night. Which begs the question, if they are working through the night, how on earth can they not get the ride open for 8.30am?...and also, if they are there 24/7 (which they arent) - how come they only ever send the 1st test cart round 5 minutes before opening time?....surely if they were in early they would be sending test carts round at 6am and then seeing if there are issues so they can be rectified before the damn park opens...not do it 5 minutes before the park opens? The worker said "fair point"

He also said he previously worked for Disney and told me some of the stunts the company pull over there, which conformed my suspicions. Obviously he is a previous employee and may bear a grudge, but no smoke without fire.

Most of the delayed starts in Universal and Disney are pre-planned - you'd have to be very thick skinned not to realise that by now...or think every single coincidence is just that.
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There is an item called safety which trumps over any issue to open the ride safely. There are a lot of moving parts in the attraction and your conspiracy theory of Disney delaying the ride to open on purpose is frankly getting old and worn out.
 
TheMaxRebo

TheMaxRebo

Well-Known Member
Thepuma said:
Yep, and that is the reason why we know the 'delayed openings' are pre planned and done for very good reason by Disney.

ToT was delayed for the first hour - was that a genuine 'mechanical issue' again at park open? Or yet again just what Disney do at park open. Because it's very very often the case that 1 ride is always delayed...between ToT, RnRC and Rise.

To be fair, it's not only Disney, Universal do it too.

Like this morning- Hagrids delayed opening for over an hour. Had a long chat with the cast member at the front of the queue - he said it was technical issues- To which I asked when the Engineers actually arrive in the morning to start testing...he said they are there 24/7 and work through the night. Which begs the question, if they are working through the night, how on earth can they not get the ride open for 8.30am?...and also, if they are there 24/7 (which they arent) - how come they only ever send the 1st test cart round 5 minutes before opening time?....surely if they were in early they would be sending test carts round at 6am and then seeing if there are issues so they can be rectified before the damn park opens...not do it 5 minutes before the park opens? The worker said "fair point"

He also said he previously worked for Disney and told me some of the stunts the company pull over there, which conformed my suspicions. Obviously he is a previous employee and may bear a grudge, but no smoke without fire.

Most of the delayed starts in Universal and Disney are pre-planned - you'd have to be very thick skinned not to realise that by now...or think every single coincidence is just that.
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For something like Rise, from talking to people that work on it, it literally takes hours to restart it - to get it up and running and testing ... there are so many systems that interrelate and have to be cross tested, etc. ... it isn't something they just turn on, do 5 minutes of testing and good to go.

Now, one could say they should shut it down and take the 6months or 12 months to try and getting operating better - but they have decided running partially is better than not at all. Definitely can fault them for that but I really don't think they are sitting there saying "hey, this ride absolutely could be working right now, but nah, let's not run it"
 

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