Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[Disney Glimpses]

Please point me to the 30-40% discount s for the 4th

It’s almost like most of you aren’t even what’s been happening in the south for the last month

The question wasn't only about the 4th. The article referenced that. Iger was asked about a slowdown in general. And those discounts are active during the time period where Bob Iger denied a slowdown was occurring (but then kind of admitted it by talking about how all of FL is down).

 

[Disney Glimpses]

woah, the low to mid-nineties and scattered afternoon thunderstorms? in Florida? in the summer?
THE END TIMES ARE HERE

In all of my years visiting this resort, I have never once heard anyone use "it's hot" as an excuse for why the theme parks were slower than usual.

 

[celluloid]

He is a weatherman...

Probably why he is used to being wrong.

 

[coachb]

I see a lot of “it’s the price”, “it’s too complicated” stuff, which I think is partially true; but…

I think “Its the Brand!”.

I work on brands (one in particular) for a living. The lowering approval ratings are devastating.

Maybe it was the culture war, more likely the long train of movies that didn’t hit home or tell stories of the power with normally associate with Disney (in my opinion), or probably a combination of everything. It’s trickled down enough that it’s affected the parks.

Big trouble. Slow ship to turn.

Am I wrong?

 

[celluloid]

I see a lot of “it’s the price”, “it’s too complicated” stuff, which I think is partially true; but…

I think “Its the Brand!”.

I work on brands (one in particular) for a living. The lowering approval ratings are devastating.

Maybe it was the culture war, more likely the long train of movies that didn’t hit home or tell stories of the power with normally associate with Disney (in my opinion), or probably a combination of everything. It’s trickled down enough that it’s affected the parks.

Big trouble. Slow ship to turn.

Am I wrong?

I think it plays a huge part. Circling back to parks specifically. Nickel and diming hurts your brand. The system to enjoy the parks have definitely hurt the brand.

 

[IanDLBZF]

In all of my years visiting this resort, I have never once heard anyone use "it's hot" as an excuse for why the theme parks were slower than usual.

And that all in itself shows a HUGE red flag for the Walt Disney Company. Using climate change as an excuse for declining attendance. Universal also saw a rather slow 4th of July too for that regard.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I see a lot of “it’s the price”, “it’s too complicated” stuff, which I think is partially true; but…

I think “Its the Brand!”.

I work on brands (one in particular) for a living. The lowering approval ratings are devastating.

Maybe it was the culture war, more likely the long train of movies that didn’t hit home or tell stories of the power with normally associate with Disney (in my opinion), or probably a combination of everything. It’s trickled down enough that it’s affected the parks.

Big trouble. Slow ship to turn.

Am I wrong?

I think it is all interconnected - but certainly the overall sentiment towards Disney is less positive in the past. So that just makes the draw a bit less for people and if you are that much less drawn and then you have increased pricing, not a ton of new stuff, etc it makes it that much easier to say "eh, I'll pass"

 

[Disney Glimpses]

And that all in itself shows a HUGE red flag for the Walt Disney Company. Universal also saw a rather slow 4th of July too for that regard.

Yeah, I don't claim to know exactly why demand is down at Disney or elsewhere but things are noticeably slower than usual. Great time to visit.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Yeah, I don't claim to know exactly why demand is down at Disney or elsewhere but things are noticeably slower than usual. Great time to visit.

Way too hot. I’ll pass.

 

[coachb]

It took the better part of a century to build that brand. It will take more than a few really good movies or positive changes to the parks.

All I’m saying is, they better right the ship fast.

Creating great product over the next few years may just stop the bleeding. Bringing the negative momentum to a stop will be the first step. Then, maybe they can start climbing the hill.

To do any of that they need movies and products that win…. and win and win and win. They don’t have to be perfect, but they are going to have to (at a minimum) eliminate the self inflicted huge failures (looking at Indy 5, most or Star Wars over last decade or so, Strange World - not going political just results).

I’m not sure they are/can do that.

Disney is gigantic and has been solid for what seems like forever, but they are bigger trouble (in my opinion) than what I’m hearing from most.

Now is that time to get incredible focused. No more flops.

 

[seabreezept813]

woah, the low to mid-nineties and scattered afternoon thunderstorms? in Florida? in the summer?
THE END TIMES ARE HERE

Higher humidity in Massachusetts most of July.. I can say anecdotally of course that as family who often goes in August because I’m a teacher that we are aware that Florida is hot and has thunderstorms when we book our trip. Of course Disney is hot, but so much is also indoors that it gets broken up more so than your average regional park.

 

[seabreezept813]

I think the used to be target group is just crunched. Maybe not so bad that they can’t take any vaca but Disney is big money. And people had money saved from the pandemic that they’ve since blown and now with inflation things are tight again. My husband questioned our trip after grocery shopping today. Not because we can’t afford it, we keep vaca savings separate from everything else, but because when you see such an increase in what you’re spending you get freaked out a little. And warnings of a recession have been going for two years now. Most middle class people we know have too many payments.. car, credit card, school, childcare, that have increased and so that fun money gets smaller when your dollar doesn’t go as far.

 

[DisneyHead123]

It took the better part of a century to build that brand. It will take more than a few really good movies or positive changes to the parks.

All I’m saying is, they better right the ship fast.

Creating great product over the next few years may just stop the bleeding. Bringing the negative momentum to a stop will be the first step. Then, maybe they can start climbing the hill.

To do any of that they need movies and products that win…. and win and win and win. They don’t have to be perfect, but they are going to have to (at a minimum) eliminate the self inflicted huge failures (looking at Indy 5, most or Star Wars over last decade or so, Strange World - not going political just results).

I’m not sure they are/can do that.

Disney is gigantic and has been solid for what seems like forever, but they are bigger trouble (in my opinion) than what I’m hearing from most.

Now is that time to get incredible focused. No more flops.

I think that the parks are still incredibly well positioned to earn money in the new(ish) “experience economy”. The sheer volume of land, infrastructure, and IP they have in hand with the parks is an enormous advantage. They have flubbed things up recently but it’s not like would-be competitors can just go out there and build something comparable. Disney Parks are positioned well on decades of investment, much of it when costs were far less than they are today.

That said, I do think the “streaming vs. parks” dynamic has the potential to be a make or break moment for Disney. I doubt it will, but I think the potential is there. The parks are cash cows while streaming is a black hole of debt - and yet there’s no movement to course correct there so far. It’s the old dot com model of “we’ll figure out profitability in the future - how could something this popular not be profitable?!”

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

Prices for everything is the highest ever.

It’s this x 100. Even adjusted for inflation, prices are the highest they’ve ever been by far, for everything. Everything else is just a sideshow. They got too greedy.

 

[jannerUK]

Can I ask, without digressing, the situation currently this week from people on the ground in the parks currently. Its that time now where the weather changes and the middle of the day becomes closed off to outdoor rides as Thunder Storms hits.
As this is a 'attendance low' thread....
A) how often this past fortnight has the middle of the day outside rides been closed
B) what is the attendance like when it is. Do we see a bigger portion at start of the day (as forecast predicts Thunderstorms)? Is it a steady low attendance regardless of the weather?
Trying to keep my question back on topic. Just wondered as we are 19 days away and the next 30 day forecast gives the usual heavy TS affecting August.

 

[Rimmit]

From my POV there are two things that are driving the attendance drop.

1.) Price - Hands down price is the main factor. People were willing to pay during the pandemic due to lack of options. FL was the first place to open up, and FL had a near monopoly on vacations for a while, and WDW and Universal had a monopoly on world class theme parks. Now with the whole world competing for the vacation dollar price is a factor again. Which leads into…

2.) Increased worldwide competition - While this is anecdotal as I am only one person, but nearly EVERYONE I know this summer did one of two things. They went to Europe or went out west to some National parks. These are people who are not normally adventurous travelers but traditionally did beach and Disney vacations. But since they’ve been doing that the last several years, they all decided to do something different. Once everyone figured out Europe is not that much more than going to Disney if you have to fly to Disney, off to Europe they went. I am mindblowing how many people I know went to Europe this year. People who traditionally are not international travelers and these are families with younger children.

People have been scratching the theme park itch since covid began because it was one of the few options that and national parks. With the world fully reopened people are scratching other itches. There is massive renewed interest in NPs, and a huge part of that is instagram and social media. Everyone started posting their pics of NPs during the pandemic and it just got the ball rolling. It was already picking up steam due to social media before hand. As a photographer, I have known about Horseshoe Bend and Antelope Canyon for as along as I can remember, as it was always featured in photography magazines. Do you know how many people knew about it aside from photographers in the 90s and 00's? Pretty much no one. Once instagram got the ball rolling with 2010s it exploded. My brother went in 2017 and walked up and got a ticket at the window to go to Antelope Canyon. In 2018 when I went It was booked out months in advance. New hotels were being built left and right in Page, AZ to accommodate the sudden interest. Horseshoe bend used to be a side attraction with no facilities and no parking lot. Social media can swing populations due to FOMO. Disney thrives off FOMO, and now that everyone went from 2020-2022 the population has moved onto the next social media blitz of FOMO which seems to be Europe and National Parks.

Everything else people are mentioning as a cause of decreased attendance is a distraction. Disney’s been blazing hot for as long as I can remember. Taylor Swift isn't the first pop culture sensation to have a highly sought after stadium tour, but in fairness it's the biggest one since the pandemic hit. Inflation is bad but that’s bad everywhere across the board but airlines are not seeing decreased demand for this summer, hence the record high airfares.

 

[GhostHost1000]

From my POV there are two things that are driving the attendance drop.

1.) Price - Hands down price is the main factor. People were willing to pay during the pandemic due to lack of options. FL was the first place to open up, and FL had a near monopoly on vacations for a while, and WDW and Universal had a monopoly on world class theme parks. Now with the whole world competing for the vacation dollar price is a factor again. Which leads into…

2.) Increased worldwide competition - While this is anecdotal as I am only one person, but nearly EVERYONE I know this summer did one of two things. They went to Europe or went out west to some National parks. These are people who are not normally adventurous travelers but traditionally did beach and Disney vacations. But since they’ve been doing that the last several years, they all decided to do something different. Once everyone figured out Europe is not that much more than going to Disney if you have to fly to Disney, off to Europe they went. I am mindblowing how many people I know went to Europe this year. People who traditionally are not international travelers and these are families with younger children.

People have been scratching the theme park itch since covid began because it was one of the few options. With the world fully reopened people are scratching other itches.

Everything else is a distraction. Disney’s been blazing hot for as long as I can remember. Inflation is bad but that’s bad everywhere across the board but airlines are not seeing decreased demand for this summer, hence the record high airfares.

Also tied for 1

Complexity in planning and trying to enjoy a wdw vacation since Covid like we did pre-Covid

 

[jannerUK]

I guess my point was more how is the heat/thunderstorms changing the dynamic this year alongside the drop in attendance. Are we seeing a shift to morning crowds who have predicted the afternoons weather or is it low most of the day regardless....

 

[seabreezept813]

The Europe thing interests me because I haven’t seen anyone going. But I believe it because I do think the price might be comparable. I know we look at Brazil prices every year but right now 1k per flight per person means it’s easier to bring my mother in law here than Vice versa. Also the farm in Brazil is really roughing it, not what we consider a nice vacation just a way to see family. I teach with about 80 other teachers who make between 50-100k in MA most with kids aged 35-50 so I’d consider it a fairly middle class profession. Where were people going.. 2 families to Disney (one in an RV), lots of beach vacations.. weeks at Hampton, the Cape, Outer Banks etc., day trips, and some to Canada. What’s currently big is buying RVs, which have big payments (another source of debt for a few people I know) and then hitting lots of camp sites. I also know a lot of people, despite being off for the summer, we’re spending big on summer camps for kids or travel sports. When I asked my boss (who makes more than everyone) they also said a beach trip, that the kids want to go back to Disney but they’re still paying off the trip from last year.
*edit the adults are 35-50, kids are young preschool-middle school aged

 

[JD80]

I think there are a lot of factors that are driving attendance down. These are ordered somewhat in order of biggest to smallest impact.

1. Sticker shock - the price of tickets/hotels. If you were to measure quoted dollar vs. spent dollar you'd probably see a larger %% gap than in 2019. Quoted dollar is the amount of money travel agents are quoting, money left in the cart on the WDW website etc compared to money actually spent on a booking.
2. Perceived loss of value - comparing what you get now vs. 4 years ago - we all know the list
3. Vacation Sync - a lot of people go every year, every other, every two etc. With '20, '21 and even '22 being years people chose not to go, everyone went at once and reset everyone's every X years to go. So instead of a steady cadence of repeat customers was reset.
4. Brand Erosion - If I had to guess, the majority of brand damage suffered by Disney is not based on cultural garbage but mostly base on money. Families coming back from vacation sharing stories with other parents at baseball practice or school functions will mostly talk about the COST of a vacation, the extra you have to purchase, the nickel and diming, the waking up at 7AM and project managing your vacation. Money money money. Disney was always expensive, but it's just excessive now. In just 4 years, a pack of 6/7 tickets is $800 more (adjusted for inflation).
5. Just doing something else - after the pandemic and maybe a return trip to WDW (add in reason #2 and reason #3) families are reassessing how they vacation. Now they are going to Taylor Swift, National Parks, regional parks, beaches etc.
6. Construction - I'm willing to bet there is a non-zero amount of people who chose not to go back to EPCOT until it's not a construction pit.
7. Lack of New Rides - If I could think of a better heading, I'd combine this with #7, but there is no motivation for people to come to the parks that have been there in '21 and '22. Tron? Journey of Water? People aren't coming for that. The property desperately needs new lands, new shows, new celebrations. The 50th was a disaster. That should have been a major driving factor coming to WDW and they didn't do anything for it. But they made more money in '22 than '19 so I guess something was justified.
8. Heat - Everyone is memeing this, but for a large stretch of June into July there was a record heat wave that started in Texas. While this didn't prevent people with vacations booked from going, it did suppress the amount of hours they spent at the park. This also suppressed the amount of locals and APs from deciding on going.

People are complex, so it isn't just one thing that gets people to not book. But these are part of the equation.