Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[tl77]

Is it just some anecdotal accounts on what would be slow days every year? My gut tells me it could be a semi-significant trend/change.

Anybody feel any nervousness on the Mouse’s side?

I was there the week of July 4th 2018, and it wasn't very crowded before the 4th, but got crowded quickly afterwards

Coming out of the pandemic a lot of people headed to WDW for the 50th, my sister and her family were there twice in 10 months, and it was crowded and crazy, it's also really hot and expensive, and Epcot "still" isn't finished and Splash Mt won't be back til next year...

It's just a slow year, the only reason to be there now is to buy 100th merch, they aren't offering much else this year except high prices and the annoying and ineffective Genie+

 

[Jrb1979]

And it could be a reason folks are staying away from central Florida.

I doubt it. Most people book Disney vacations months in advance.

 

[MisterPenguin]

 

[mightynine]

View attachment 730080

Ugh, don't remind me. Dog walks are brutal right now.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

It’s abnormally hot in many places. That’s news and it’s going to be reported.

Florida continues to believe that if things aren't reported on then they don't actually exist.

It's working well.

 

[JD80]

All those vacations that were never booked months prior were because everyone was consulting the Farmer’s Almanac.

So you're saying the record breaking heat doesn't effect how long people stay in the parks? Or decide to going only in the AM or PM or take mid day breaks?

 

[Disstevefan1]

Or decide to going only in the AM or PM or take mid day breaks?

Folks have been doing this for decades.

 

[Jrb1979]

So you're saying the record breaking heat doesn't effect how long people stay in the parks? Or decide to going only in the AM or PM or take mid day breaks?

It does effect it but not as much as people think.

 

[flynnibus]

The real story should be the colossal failure of Disney's WDW 50th and Disney 100th activities to drive new interest in the parks.

Not that Disney is not running at top attendance ever... but that Disney should have been poised to promote the product with a generational milestone... and instead, they have an EPCOT dirt yard, useless marketing, record flops (Harmonious, etc), and few wins.

Disney has stumbled with their product, it's offers, and driving interest in it. That's the core problem. All these ankle-biters wanting to paint narratives about progressive behavior, politics, etc are just side shows. Contributors, yes -- but not what moves the center mass.

Even Disney's biggest enemies all have a history of enjoying the parks. The reason Disney has been immune in the past is because of what they offered! And shield Disney had where everyone always considered them the 'top of the top' of product and service is gone. Disney ate away at themselves enough and didn't advance enough to let that crown jewel of reputation falter.

Now when the pressure is on from other detractors... their immunity is gone.. and they suffer.

The key is seeing how Disney reacts and what they think their solutions will be. Will they be structural and back to fixing the core identity? Or will they be more short-term sugar highs?

 

[JD80]

The real story should be the colossal failure of Disney's WDW 50th and Disney 100th activities to drive new interest in the parks.

Not that Disney is not running at top attendance ever... but that Disney should have been poised to promote the product with a generational milestone... and instead, they have an EPCOT dirt yard, useless marketing, record flops (Harmonious, etc), and few wins.

Disney has stumbled with their product, it's offers, and driving interest in it. That's the core problem. All these ankle-biters wanting to paint narratives about progressive behavior, politics, etc are just side shows. Contributors, yes -- but not what moves the center mass.

Even Disney's biggest enemies all have a history of enjoying the parks. The reason Disney has been immune in the past is because of what they offered! And shield Disney had where everyone always considered them the 'top of the top' of product and service is gone. Disney ate away at themselves enough and didn't advance enough to let that crown jewel of reputation falter.

Now when the pressure is on from other detractors... their immunity is gone.. and they suffer.

The key is seeing how Disney reacts and what they think their solutions will be. Will they be structural and back to fixing the core identity? Or will they be more short-term sugar highs?

It's amazing how bad the 50th was for WDW even coming out of COVID, they had plenty of time considering the celebration was 10 years long.

 

[hopemax]

All those vacations that were never booked months prior were because everyone was consulting the Farmer’s Almanac.

I would imagine this is also influenced by date-based tickets & reservations. Especially, in a post-Covid world where people with trips booked in 2020/first half of 2021 learned a very valuable lesson about how much of a hassle it is to change things / get your money back if you can't go. Throw in that risk, and an increased number of people over 2019 may want to wait to book until their "expectation of needing to cancel" drops into low, single digits. So when that intersects with the "reason to cancel" is "potential for extreme heat," you end up with a subset of folks, especially those within driving distance who don't book months in advance, planning to buy their tickets after the weather report comes out.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I really think if its indeed true that attendance is down at WDW is from a mix of several factors:
Folks are waiting for EPIC Universe to open.
The good AP programs no longer exist.
Prices for everything is the highest ever.
Genie +, ILLs
Park Pass Reservations.
And the summer (for whatever reason) over time has seen less visitors.

 

[LSLS]

So you're saying the record breaking heat doesn't effect how long people stay in the parks? Or decide to going only in the AM or PM or take mid day breaks?

Yes, I'll say I don't think it made any sort of a statistical impact. Last summer was the second hottest on record. There were 87 days hotter than 90 degrees. This isn't unprecedented, it legit happened a year ago. Every hotel except for Carribean Beach had vacancies for the entire week (meaning searching for a room for a week, not looking for just one offs). I'm just not buying heat had any measurable impact. People always take breaks during the day. But when you look at the wait time curves, there is not a dip during the afternoon. The hotels weren't crowded, and the parks weren't crowded. Now, it could be everyone expected the 4th to be slammed so nobody booked, or other reasons. But I'm not buying the heat is the reason.

 

[flynnibus]

Yes, I'll say I don't think it made any sort of a statistical impact. Last summer was the second hottest on record. There were 87 days hotter than 90 degrees. This isn't unprecedented, it legit happened a year ago. Every hotel except for Carribean Beach had vacancies for the entire week (meaning searching for a room for a week, not looking for just one offs). I'm just not buying heat had any measurable impact. People always take breaks during the day. But when you look at the wait time curves, there is not a dip during the afternoon. The hotels weren't crowded, and the parks weren't crowded. Now, it could be everyone expected the 4th to be slammed so nobody booked, or other reasons. But I'm not buying the heat is the reason.

has everyone forgotten the insider stories of how many single day tickets the parks continue to sell?

 

[hopemax]

has everyone forgotten the insider stories of how many single day tickets the parks continue to sell?

People can’t see beyond their own situations.

 

[Disstevefan1]

has everyone forgotten the insider stories of how many single day tickets the parks continue to sell?

Disney LOVES the sweet single day ticket MONEY!!!!

 

[HauntedPirate]

The real story should be the colossal failure of Disney's WDW 50th and Disney 100th activities to drive new interest in the parks.

Not that Disney is not running at top attendance ever... but that Disney should have been poised to promote the product with a generational milestone... and instead, they have an EPCOT dirt yard, useless marketing, record flops (Harmonious, etc), and few wins.

Disney has stumbled with their product, it's offers, and driving interest in it. That's the core problem. All these ankle-biters wanting to paint narratives about progressive behavior, politics, etc are just side shows. Contributors, yes -- but not what moves the center mass.

Even Disney's biggest enemies all have a history of enjoying the parks. The reason Disney has been immune in the past is because of what they offered! And shield Disney had where everyone always considered them the 'top of the top' of product and service is gone. Disney ate away at themselves enough and didn't advance enough to let that crown jewel of reputation falter.

Now when the pressure is on from other detractors... their immunity is gone.. and they suffer.

The key is seeing how Disney reacts and what they think their solutions will be. Will they be structural and back to fixing the core identity? Or will they be more short-term sugar highs?

Well said.

What will Disney do? Let's just say... I think Bob has a sweet tooth.

 

[Tha Realest]

So you're saying the record breaking heat doesn't effect how long people stay in the parks? Or decide to going only in the AM or PM or take mid day breaks?

The stories of the low wait times were posted early in the day. And no, i don’t think people that dropped thousands to go to Orlando to hit the parks with prepaid for tickets will just bail because it’s a little hotter than expected.

Also doesn’t explain, again, the very low bookings and aggressive discounts in the weeks and months leading up to the Fourth that foreshadowed the very low hotel occupancy.

 

[flynnibus]

Also doesn’t explain, again, the very low bookings and aggressive discounts in the weeks and months leading up to the Fourth that foreshadowed the very low hotel occupancy.

What aggressive discounts are you referring to?

Disney made news by actually having significant discounts again for the first time in awhile... but they were not aggressive discounts.. and certainly not any in irregular volume compared to the past. They pretty much only had one general public discount that was the up to 25% offer that applied to spring/summer. The only ones that were even notable for 'wow' levels were AP and FL deals. The visa card promo had limited windows (only a month in late spring).

Disney discounting is as regular as the sun coming up and is normal behavior for how they adapt to demand.

Disney was already telling the market back in the Q2 earnings call to expect softer WDW numbers.. and others were reporting on the cooling off that was being seen in the parks before (back in May)

Example: https://www.disneytouristblog.com/disney-parks-reports-higher-revenue-amidst-looming-slowdown/ and https://www.disneytouristblog.com/slow-six-week-stretch-for-disney-world-crowds

Pick the argument you are trying to have and stop hopping and skipping around. If you are talking about July 4th specifically, the weather topics you replied to are still relevant. If you want to talk about the longer trend, yes, heat specifically isn't relevant... but you're also CHANGING THE SUBJECT.

 

[drew81]

Wonder what Bob Chapek is doing right this moment?