Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[flyerjab]

We are going this Friday and will be there for 5 nights. I’ve seen some of the photos online of what the parks look like and some are a bit shocking. We always go in the summer and my wife has been of the impression that park attendance during the summer has been slowly declining. I think that WDW has seen an averaging out of attendance throughout the entire calendar as well. But I also still don’t remember seeing empty walkways like I have been seeing as of late.

And Bob really spewed some BS during that CNBC interview. July 4th was hot and humid…it is Florida…in July…but yeah, you do you Bob. A lot of subtle maneuvering during that interview…everything failed but me was his stance…

I think a lot is the price during some inflationary years. I ask myself “has the product improved that much that added cost of Genie+ and ILL makes sense?” Nope. If all of a sudden more staff was added daily to maintain cleanliness and additional personnel were hired to keep the rides in tiptop shape, that alone might inspire me to spend more. But the experience on RotR, for example, has done nothing but decrease. Too many effects not working on a consistent basis for me too say “yeah, I can see that this warrants more money to guarantee quicker entry.”

Show me a park where ownership sees the value and promise of what a theme park experience can truly be elevated to and I might be enticed to pay more. Show me leadership that has a defined, targeted plan for expansion and overall guest experience improvement and I might pay more. Right now, anecdotally all I am seeing is them taking half a decade to move dirt, plant trees, route water and build a pretty standard building. And guess what, after our stay next week, we are staying at a house in Hilton Head in August (not their DVC resort), Vegas for U2 at the Sphere in October, and a trip next summer to Italy. Notice what isn’t in our future itinerary?…yeah…thanks Bob…you’d have to go back decades the last time our vacation calendar looked like this.

 

[flynnibus]

For those obviously not paying attention…

This started back in march even..

That’s so hot: 2023 seeing hottest start ever on record

The first three months of the year is usually the time we see the coolest weather over 12 months. And although it isn’t feeling like summer yet exactly, our “cool” season hasn’t been so cool.

www.clickorlando.com

Southern Florida is in it’s hottest year on record already…

July 4th week?
“It's been a record-breaking week so far in Florida, starting Tuesday when high temperatures in the upper 90s set records. Naples tied a record at 96, while Tampa and Sarasota reached a record 97 degrees, Sanford hit 98, and Brooksville hit 99. Tampa's all-time record high is 99.”

Florida expected to fry yet again Thursday as sultry humidity makes it feel nearly 110 degrees

The summer hot spell in Florida continues to bake the Sunshine State in a sultry heat-and-humidity combo that has pushed the limits of what even long-time Floridians have experienced.

www.foxweather.com

Right now it’s really southern florida that is really in the crosshairs breaking all the records for highs and consecutive days with extreme heat but earlier in the season even northern Florida was in extremes.

This year is not just ‘its florida in the summer…duh’ — Florida and the entire south has been cooked. Right now it’s southern Florida and the southwest in the extreme pattern

 

[Jrb1979]

For those obviously not paying attention…

This started back in march even..

That’s so hot: 2023 seeing hottest start ever on record

The first three months of the year is usually the time we see the coolest weather over 12 months. And although it isn’t feeling like summer yet exactly, our “cool” season hasn’t been so cool.

www.clickorlando.com

Southern Florida is in it’s hottest year on record already…

July 4th week?
“It's been a record-breaking week so far in Florida, starting Tuesday when high temperatures in the upper 90s set records. Naples tied a record at 96, while Tampa and Sarasota reached a record 97 degrees, Sanford hit 98, and Brooksville hit 99. Tampa's all-time record high is 99.”

Florida expected to fry yet again Thursday as sultry humidity makes it feel nearly 110 degrees

The summer hot spell in Florida continues to bake the Sunshine State in a sultry heat-and-humidity combo that has pushed the limits of what even long-time Floridians have experienced.

www.foxweather.com

Right now it’s really southern florida that is really in the crosshairs breaking all the records for highs and consecutive days with extreme heat but earlier in the season even northern Florida was in extremes.

This year is not just ‘its florida in the summer…duh’ — Florida and the entire south has been cooked. Right now it’s southern Florida and the southwest in the extreme pattern

Nobody is saying it's not hot. I'm sure it's playing a small factor in attendance. It's the main reason attendance is down. Most people book their Disney vacations 8 months to a year in advance. I doubt those people are all going to cancel due to the heat.

 

[JD80]

It's probably the main reason why summers have been getting softer over the last decade.

 

[GhostHost1000]

For those obviously not paying attention…

This started back in march even..

That’s so hot: 2023 seeing hottest start ever on record

The first three months of the year is usually the time we see the coolest weather over 12 months. And although it isn’t feeling like summer yet exactly, our “cool” season hasn’t been so cool.

www.clickorlando.com

Southern Florida is in it’s hottest year on record already…

July 4th week?
“It's been a record-breaking week so far in Florida, starting Tuesday when high temperatures in the upper 90s set records. Naples tied a record at 96, while Tampa and Sarasota reached a record 97 degrees, Sanford hit 98, and Brooksville hit 99. Tampa's all-time record high is 99.”

Florida expected to fry yet again Thursday as sultry humidity makes it feel nearly 110 degrees

The summer hot spell in Florida continues to bake the Sunshine State in a sultry heat-and-humidity combo that has pushed the limits of what even long-time Floridians have experienced.

www.foxweather.com

Right now it’s really southern florida that is really in the crosshairs breaking all the records for highs and consecutive days with extreme heat but earlier in the season even northern Florida was in extremes.

This year is not just ‘its florida in the summer…duh’ — Florida and the entire south has been cooked. Right now it’s southern Florida and the southwest in the extreme pattern

It’s summer. It’s hot. Even if it’s hotter than usual it’s Florida and it’s always been hot and humid. Most people have their trips planned well in advance. While this could be playing a small factor into locals or those who wait to the last minute to book, I don’t think it’s the main factor at all.

There are many more factors at play now

 

[JD80]

It’s summer. It’s hot. Even if it’s hotter than usual it’s Florida and it’s always been hot and humid. Most people have their trips planned well in advance. While this could be playing a small factor into locals or those who wait to the last minute to book, I don’t think it’s the main factor at all.

No one has said it's the main factor. Everyone talking about heat and attendance is saying it's having some impact l, not a complete impact.

You're the one conflating the two.

 

[GhostHost1000]

No one has said it's the main factor. Everyone talking about heat and attendance is saying it's having some impact l, not a complete impact.

You're the one conflating the two.

No, I just doubt the heat or taylor swift is causing numbers to drop. Do we think Disney is expecting crowds to pick back up this fall? Doesn’t look like it with all the discounts

Disney has many more problems to worry about to get crowds back.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Nobody is saying it's not hot. I'm sure it's playing a small factor in attendance. It's the main reason attendance is down. Most people book their Disney vacations 8 months to a year in advance. I doubt those people are all going to cancel due to the heat.

But no one is saying it is the main reason. Even in Iger's interview he said it had an impact specifically in July 4th

 

[JD80]

No, I just doubt the heat or taylor swift is causing numbers to drop. Do we think Disney is expecting crowds to pick back up this fall? Doesn’t look like it with all the discounts

Disney has many more problems to worry about to get crowds back.

The heat is definitely is/was causing minute to minute park attendance to drop. When there are extreme temperatures people tend to be in the parks less. They still have a ticket, they still checked in to the park, but they may be taking more mid day breaks, leaving earlier or going in later in the day.

Fall will pick up as usual I think, to what level is TBD.

As far as discounts, you're completely wrong. There is no "all the discounts". Here are discounts that touch from September forward comparing 2023 to 2019. Tell me where the extreme discounts are.

And here was 2019

 

[Andrew25]

Let's ignore the summer heat for a second... there are still discounts being offered throughout the year, and specific ones as well just for the latter part of the year. Disney knows there's a decrease in demand... not just in summer.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I've mentioned before:

Before the pandemic, peak attendance switched from Fall to Summer.

All the Fall to Winter party nights successfully made what was once a dead time, peak time.

Consequently, Summer had become the dead time.

So... this is 'normal.'

What's abnormal is that the dead time this year started in the Spring. That's the anomaly.

 

[GhostHost1000]

The heat is definitely is/was causing minute to minute park attendance to drop. When there are extreme temperatures people tend to be in the parks less. They still have a ticket, they still checked in to the park, but they may be taking more mid day breaks, leaving earlier or going in later in the day.

Fall will pick up as usual I think, to what level is TBD.

As far as discounts, you're completely wrong. There is no "all the discounts". Here are discounts that touch from September forward comparing 2023 to 2019. Tell me where the extreme discounts are.

View attachment 730317

And here was 2019
View attachment 730318

Ok I’ll give you people don’t want to be in the parks all day if it’s hotter than normal but how do you explain so many discounted rooms still available this summer?

Memorial Day for example was extremely light. I was there. So was @Sirwalterraleigh That was before the extreme summer heat

If you think Disney hasn’t been seeing a decrease in crowds recently and in the future forecasts you’re wrong. Whether or not it picks back up remains to be seen

 

[JD80]

Before you start talking about discounts, just double check what you "feel" is right to what actually is.

Use this link: https://www.mousesavers.com/historical-information-on-walt-disney-world-resort-discounts/

Just a list of historical discounts for WDW and their stay dates and when the discount became available. The only real difference is that Oct-Dec discounts became available in June this year and in 2019 they became available in July (right about now actually).

 

[GhostHost1000]

Before you start talking about discounts, just double check what you "feel" is right to what actually is.

Use this link: https://www.mousesavers.com/historical-information-on-walt-disney-world-resort-discounts/

Just a list of historical discounts for WDW and their stay dates and when the discount became available. The only real difference is that Oct-Dec discounts became available in June this year and in 2019 they became available in July (right about now actually).

Discounts are up to 35-40% in some cases this year which hasn’t normally been the case

Again if you think Disney hasn’t been seeing a decrease in crowds recently and in the future forecasts you’re wrong. Whether or not it picks back up remains to be seen

 

[JD80]

Ok I’ll give you people don’t want to be in the parks all day if it’s hotter than normal but how do you explain so many discounted rooms still available this summer?

Memorial Day for example was extremely light. I was there. So was @Sirwalterraleigh That was before the extreme summer heat

If you think Disney hasn’t been seeing a decrease in crowds recently and in the future forecasts you’re wrong. Whether or not it picks back up remains to be seen

Oh I totally believe less people are booking and there is an overall attendance problem at WDW - I posted why on the page of this thread. Heck, you LIKED it.

I'm trying to go beyond the "Attendance is low!" argument and put more refinement in it.

If there are 100 less people coming to the parks compared to whatever year you want to compare it to, 2019 or 2022. 80-90 of those people aren't coming because of cost, perceived value, whatever the main drivers of lower attendance. I am making the argument that there are a few factors BEYOND Disney's control (or poor decisions) that are being lumped on to make it even worse.

We can blame Disney for 80-90 guests not coming, but the extra 10-20 that aren't are for heat, vacation patterns, whatever.

Just a note: I pulled the 80-90, 10-20 out of my butt. It could easily be 90-95 and 5-10 instead.

 

[Splash4eva]

I dont know if its been mentioned enough but i think the Florida AP may have had a bigger impact on attendance than the average person may have thought. So to me we cant ignore that fact bc my guess is there are a good amount of locals that are no longer going and along that comes the fact they are not bringing others as well or trying to convince others to go. I know these guest were not the people the Bob’s wanted in the parks and in theory they may not be “losing” out on any money by them not coming but it could be a factor noone is truly considering.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Ok I’ll give you people don’t want to be in the parks all day if it’s hotter than normal but how do you explain so many discounted rooms still available this summer?

Memorial Day for example was extremely light. I was there. So was @Sirwalterraleigh That was before the extreme summer heat

If you think Disney hasn’t been seeing a decrease in crowds recently and in the future forecasts you’re wrong. Whether or not it picks back up remains to be seen

There is definitely a decrease in crowd levels off the peak seen in 2018-2022 (excluding COVID times) ... I think that was just the peak of crowd levels, and was the biggest complaint from people going then (especially 2019).

I just think we are back to 2015-17 crowd levels

I do wonder if people just avoid holidays more now over fear they will be more crowded, and post 4th of July things seem, if anything, a little more.crowded (still not very crowded, but a little more)

Will be interesting to see how the fall/winter is - while the scale of the hotel discounts isn't out of line it does feel like they started offering them earlier than in the past when it was more trying to fill with short notice trips

Guess we shall see how quickly parties sell out and stuff (just checked and last year first party to sell out did so on Sept 19, so still some time)

 

[JD80]

Discounts are up to 35-40% in some cases this year which hasn’t normally been the case

Again if you think Disney hasn’t been seeing a decrease in crowds recently and in the future forecasts you’re wrong. Whether or not it picks back up remains to be seen

Discounts for general public are at the 30/35% range in 2023 compared to 25/30% range in 2019. If you want to call a 5% bump in discounts "extreme" be my guest, but at least call out the number. (Though 2019 did have a Visa Cardholder discount for 35% in 2019)

The 40% discounts are for APs for this winters. 2019 had 40% discounts for APs in the Spring.

2019 had free dining. WDW has not even offered something similar to that this year.

I think Disney hasn't gone far enough, and I suspect we'll see better discounts to get people back to the parks as fall bookings will remain soft in my opinion. I think we'll begin to see some very aggressive discounts for next year in the fall. I'm talking about better package deals/ticket deals/free dining/free G+ etc. Something that gets the overall cost of the package down to what you paid in 2018/2019. That's about $1,000 to $1,500 less (adjusted for inflation)

Just doing some research from people's stories and generally looking up what things cost in 2019 (i made spreadsheets), WDW vacations are about $1,000 to $1,500 more expensive (adjusted for inflation) comparing apples to apples (same resort, same amount of tickets etc.) Where a vacation cost $5000 today (tickets/hotel only) it cost $1000-$1200 less 4 years ago. And that's before G+/ILL/Airport transportation/Food costs etc. Using a family 4 as a baseline.

 

[CastAStone]

I think there are a lot of factors that are driving attendance down. These are ordered somewhat in order of biggest to smallest impact.

1. Sticker shock - the price of tickets/hotels. If you were to measure quoted dollar vs. spent dollar you'd probably see a larger %% gap than in 2019. Quoted dollar is the amount of money travel agents are quoting, money left in the cart on the WDW website etc compared to money actually spent on a booking.
2. Perceived loss of value - comparing what you get now vs. 4 years ago - we all know the list
3. Vacation Sync - a lot of people go every year, every other, every two etc. With '20, '21 and even '22 being years people chose not to go, everyone went at once and reset everyone's every X years to go. So instead of a steady cadence of repeat customers was reset.
4. Brand Erosion - If I had to guess, the majority of brand damage suffered by Disney is not based on cultural garbage but mostly base on money. Families coming back from vacation sharing stories with other parents at baseball practice or school functions will mostly talk about the COST of a vacation, the extra you have to purchase, the nickel and diming, the waking up at 7AM and project managing your vacation. Money money money. Disney was always expensive, but it's just excessive now. In just 4 years, a pack of 6/7 tickets is $800 more (adjusted for inflation).
5. Just doing something else - after the pandemic and maybe a return trip to WDW (add in reason #2 and reason #3) families are reassessing how they vacation. Now they are going to Taylor Swift, National Parks, regional parks, beaches etc.
6. Construction - I'm willing to bet there is a non-zero amount of people who chose not to go back to EPCOT until it's not a construction pit.
7. Lack of New Rides - If I could think of a better heading, I'd combine this with #7, but there is no motivation for people to come to the parks that have been there in '21 and '22. Tron? Journey of Water? People aren't coming for that. The property desperately needs new lands, new shows, new celebrations. The 50th was a disaster. That should have been a major driving factor coming to WDW and they didn't do anything for it. But they made more money in '22 than '19 so I guess something was justified.
8. Heat - Everyone is memeing this, but for a large stretch of June into July there was a record heat wave that started in Texas. While this didn't prevent people with vacations booked from going, it did suppress the amount of hours they spent at the park. This also suppressed the amount of locals and APs from deciding on going.

People are complex, so it isn't just one thing that gets people to not book. But these are part of the equation.

It’s wild to me that they still charge enormous upcharges for summer the way they did 10 years ago. Hello, this isnt high season anymore.

I honestly think number five on your list is the biggest driver this year. It’s easy to go to Europe again, it’s possible to go to much of Asia again for the first time in 4 years, and everywhere that went crazy during the pandemic, whether it be Walt Disney World, or the Atlantic Ocean, or cabins in the woods in Tennessee, are seeing softness in booking this year. I read that AirBnB bookings are off something like 60%?

If I were Disney, I would note this as a problem, but also not be totally wigged out. It’s cyclical.

 

[JD80]

It’s wild to me that they still charge enormous upcharges for summer the way they did 10 years ago. Hello, this isnt high season anymore.

I honestly think number five on your list is the biggest driver this year. It’s easy to go to Europe again, it’s possible to go to much of Asia again for the first time in 4 years, and everywhere that went crazy during the pandemic, whether it be Walt Disney World, or the Atlantic Ocean, or cabins in the woods in Tennessee, are seeing softness in booking this year. I read that AirBnB bookings are off something like 60%?

If I were Disney, I would note this as a problem, but also not be totally wigged out. It’s cyclical.

Where you putting a 5th gate, or do we keep that convo in Discord?