Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[Lilofan]

Just as a comparison: https://cruiseindustrynews.com/crui...an-reports-2024-q2-earnings-dividend-is-back/
The part that was interesting to me for Royal Caribbean: Net Income for the second quarter of 2024 was $854 million or $3.11 per share compared to Net Income of $459 million or $1.70 per share for the same period in the prior year. Adjusted Net Income was $882 million or $3.21 per share for the second quarter of 2024 compared to Adjusted Net Income of $492 million or $1.82 per share for the same period in the prior year.
Looks like people are still spending money on vacations.
Marie

People are opening their wallets and or maxing out credit cards to support the economy even with high inflation . Some take out loans to pay to live above their means which is plain bonkers. From April to June the economy grew 2.8% while Dow and Nasdaq are doing very well growing net worth for long time investors. The real estate values of homeowners are doing very well also. To actually afford to buy at current prices is another story.

 

[Lilofan]

Poor Bob has been working so hard finding his successor for years.

Nothing but crickets when it comes to replacing him while he gets the full support of the Disney Board for him to continue being in charge.

 

[Dranth]

…bob is gonna get fired…

And he left your parks in shambles. And his stream is a loser


Do you need some Kleenex?

That right there looks like some wishful thinking. Set aside being a fan for a moment and look at it from a large institutional investor perspective. You are interested in reduced costs, increased operating income, new and replacement revenue streams. Bob has been giving them all of that. You don't care if the stock goes down for a while because it gives you a chance to buy more at a lower price.

There is a reason all the analysts have it as a buy. There is a reason not a single large investor has unloaded stock except the ones who are pouting because they failed to get on the board. If that changes then you may be right but until then, you have to stop judging Iger from a fan’s perspective if you are going to use the stock price as a means of judgement because the market does not care about what we do.

I wouldn't even be surprised come next week to find out the market is overreacting and drove the stock down too far on the comcast results. I also wouldn't be surprised if Disney was somehow worse. If Iger pulls a Chapek and says "What problems? Everything is great, just look at our after-hour party sales!" then yes, they may can him, but he isn't going to do that. He is going to tell them what he thinks is causing it (which will of course have spin applied to it) and how they plan to fix it. If the market likes what he says it will go up even with bad results, if not it will go down even with good results.

 

[GhostHost1000]

Nothing but crickets when it comes to replacing him while he gets the full support of the Disney Board for him to continue being in charge.

He has his board trained and fooled…for the second time.

Stock down 50% since 2021 and they fully support him tells you all you need to know about him and that board.

 

[JD80]

Nothing but crickets when it comes to replacing him while he gets the full support of the Disney Board for him to continue being in charge.

Even if he was spending 100% of his time on his replacement, it still would be crickets.

 

[Lilofan]

He has his board trained and fooled…for the second time.

Stock down 50% since 2021 and they fully support him tells you all you need to know about him and that board.

True but the early investors that bought shares in the early 1970s to date , stock is up 96,000 %. I would like to be in that position.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Even if he was spending 100% of his time on his replacement, it still would be crickets.

…right…real intensive search going on

 

[GhostHost1000]

…right…real intensive search going on

Its hard to find fall guy #2 he can throw under the bus for his mistakes

 

[Dranth]

He has his board trained and fooled…for the second time.

Stock down 50% since 2021 and they fully support him tells you all you need to know about him and that board.

This is exactly the kind of comment I keep talking about.

In what universe do you think investors are going to hold Iger responsible for a drop when he wasn't running the company? They care about since he has returned and what they think will happen going forward. Chapek was in charge when the stock dropped 77% from its highs and Iger was full on retired during most of that. In order for Iger to even hit the same levels of stock apocalypse that Chapek oversaw DIS will need to hit $20.00 a share. Right now, since his return, it is down 2.3% under Iger and it is only recently it has been down at all.

Anyone who thinks a CEO is going to get canned (minus doing something publicly problematic) over a 2% drop is living in a complete and total fantasy.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Its hard to find fall guy #2 he can throw under the bus for his mistakes

…there’s always the joker for Napoleon Batman

 

[LSLS]

Even if he was spending 100% of his time on his replacement, it still would be crickets.

Honestly, I'm not sure I disagree. BUT, people are definitely going to have thoughts on this because of how it has gone with him. He never had a replacement before he up and quit a random day right as Covid hit. He came back on a 2 year contract with that being his #1 priority. He then does NOT do this, and gets another 2 years to get it done. So people are treating not hearing anything now the same as us never hearing anything the past times (or, only hearing of guys being mentioned then ousted from the company). He has just over 2 years til he needs to renew his contract again or have a replacement. The idea I always thought was he wanted time to train a replacement, so really it may be just over a year to get a fully vetted person approved by the board.

 

[JoeCamel]

I wouldn't even be surprised come next week to find out the market is overreacting and drove the stock down too far on the comcast results. I also wouldn't be surprised if Disney was somehow worse.

So Comcast results pulled DIS down but today it seems Comcast recovered a bunch and DIS is not their cup of tea?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This is exactly the kind of comment I keep talking about.

In what universe do you think investors are going to hold Iger responsible for a drop when he wasn't running the company? They care about since he has returned and what they think will happen going forward. Chapek was in charge when the stock dropped 77% from its highs and Iger was full on retired during most of that. In order for Iger to even hit the same levels of stock apocalypse that Chapek oversaw DIS will need to hit $20.00 a share. Right now, since his return, it is down 2.3% under Iger and it is only recently it has been down at all.

Anyone who thinks a CEO is going to get canned (minus doing something publicly problematic) over a 2% drop is living in a complete and total fantasy.

It what world is terrible performance attributed to someone who has been around 20 years…already left once…and it’s gotten worse since…???

Cause I feel like you’re about to deny that that’s exactly what the record is?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Honestly, I'm not sure I disagree. BUT, people are definitely going to have thoughts on this because of how it has gone with him. He never had a replacement before he up and quit a random day right as Covid hit. He came back on a 2 year contract with that being his #1 priority. He then does NOT do this, and gets another 2 years to get it done. So people are treating not hearing anything now the same as us never hearing anything the past times (or, only hearing of guys being mentioned then ousted from the company). He has just over 2 years til he needs to renew his contract again or have a replacement. The idea I always thought was he wanted time to train a replacement, so really it may be just over a year to get a fully vetted person approved by the board.

…when someone has repeatedly told you who they are…believe them

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Just as a comparison: https://cruiseindustrynews.com/crui...an-reports-2024-q2-earnings-dividend-is-back/
The part that was interesting to me for Royal Caribbean: Net Income for the second quarter of 2024 was $854 million or $3.11 per share compared to Net Income of $459 million or $1.70 per share for the same period in the prior year. Adjusted Net Income was $882 million or $3.21 per share for the second quarter of 2024 compared to Adjusted Net Income of $492 million or $1.82 per share for the same period in the prior year.
Looks like people are still spending money on vacations.
Marie

One funny thing is, as someone who also frequents Royal Caribbean message boards, I am seeing a lot of the same complaints from the veterans as on her about Disney

Royal is getting too expensive, is nickel and dining, is forgetting their long term fans chasing new dollars, going after families with money to spend, etc

Seeing a lot of backlash on the new ships as too big and too loud. Food quality going downhill, etc.

So Royal is doing great right now but also feels like the other shoe could drop if they keep raising prices and reducing value (at least perceived by some)

 

[JD80]

Honestly, I'm not sure I disagree. BUT, people are definitely going to have thoughts on this because of how it has gone with him. He never had a replacement before he up and quit a random day right as Covid hit. He came back on a 2 year contract with that being his #1 priority. He then does NOT do this, and gets another 2 years to get it done. So people are treating not hearing anything now the same as us never hearing anything the past times (or, only hearing of guys being mentioned then ousted from the company). He has just over 2 years til he needs to renew his contract again or have a replacement. The idea I always thought was he wanted time to train a replacement, so really it may be just over a year to get a fully vetted person approved by the board.

I think there's a chance we hear about a replacement candidate sometime in the first two Qs of the new fiscal year.

 

[LSLS]

I think there's a chance we hear about a replacement candidate sometime in the first two Qs of the new fiscal year.

It's possible, but keep in mind we were supposed to hear it for the last 2 years before he was extended again. As I say when people ask me playoff predictions for hockey teams, if there is a long history of not making the playoffs, I will never bet money on this being the year. They very well might (and should), but if I was forced to bet on it, I wouldn't make the bet on it happening.

 

[John park hopper]

I pity Bob's replacement they will have their work cut out for them if they want to turn this leaking ship around

 

[LSLS]

This is exactly the kind of comment I keep talking about.

In what universe do you think investors are going to hold Iger responsible for a drop when he wasn't running the company? They care about since he has returned and what they think will happen going forward. Chapek was in charge when the stock dropped 77% from its highs and Iger was full on retired during most of that. In order for Iger to even hit the same levels of stock apocalypse that Chapek oversaw DIS will need to hit $20.00 a share. Right now, since his return, it is down 2.3% under Iger and it is only recently it has been down at all.

Anyone who thinks a CEO is going to get canned (minus doing something publicly problematic) over a 2% drop is living in a complete and total fantasy.

But, that's not the entire story. Iger officially left in 2021. So from July 2021 to the end of December, Disney dropped 13%, and the Dow was up 3%. 2021 til Chapek is fired, they lose 40%. But, the Dow was also down 6%. From the time Iger came on til now, Disney has dropped another 2%. BUT, the Dow is up 19% in that same time frame.

My point being, when only looking at Disney stock, you are right. But if you factor in how other top stocks have done along those same timelines, the Iger timeline looks a LOT worse. And just to head stuff off a bit, I am not saying it's done worse (or even as bad as Chapek), nor that I think Iger is being fired (my feelings on if he should be aside).

And I will say, the idea of Iger coming back was he was going to fix the stock drop. The fact he really hasn't is why I think a normal board would have him to the fire. It's not about him being responsible for the large drop, it's that he was brought back to reverse that drop, and while stopping the large drop, he has not come close to bringing them back (or even just simply keeping up with other top companies).

 

[Dranth]

So Comcast results pulled DIS down but today it seems Comcast recovered a bunch and DIS is not their cup of tea?

View attachment 804088

Yes. Welcome to how the market works.

If you don't think that had an impact, what is your explanation for why EVERY SINGLE park operator saw a large decline starting exactly when Comcast reported their attendance and revenue issues at the park? What exactly made Disney close at $94.13 before Comcast had their earnings call and the next day drop to $90.94? What new bit of information came along that would explain that?

As for Comcast going back up, that seems pretty standard to me. The market consistently over reacts when news first hits and then corrects over a few days. Once Dis reports we will see something similar either up or down as people get overtly excited if the earnings are better than expected or jump ship if worse.