Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[Dranth]

So Comcast results pulled DIS down but today it seems Comcast recovered a bunch and DIS is not their cup of tea?

View attachment 804088

Yes. Welcome to how the market works.

If you don't think that had an impact, what is your explanation for why EVERY SINGLE park operator saw a large decline starting exactly when Comcast reported their attendance and revenue issues at the park? What exactly made Disney close at $94.13 before Comcast had their earnings call and the next day drop to $90.94? What new bit of information came along that would explain that?

As for Comcast going back up, that seems pretty standard to me. The market consistently over reacts when news first hits and then corrects over a few days. Once Dis reports we will see something similar either up or down as people get overtly excited if the earnings are better than expected or jump ship if worse.

 

[JD80]

It's possible, but keep in mind we were supposed to hear it for the last 2 years before he was extended again. As I say when people ask me playoff predictions for hockey teams, if there is a long history of not making the playoffs, I will never bet money on this being the year. They very well might (and should), but if I was forced to bet on it, I wouldn't make the bet on it happening.

I think we hear something in the next fiscal year regardless. He'll want to play partner with the new CEO like he wanted to with Chapek, for at least a year.

We'll see. I don't see him getting an extension again.

 

[Dranth]

It what world is terrible performance attributed to someone who has been around 20 years…already left once…and it’s gotten worse since…???

Cause I feel like you’re about to deny that that’s exactly what the record is?

Again, I fell like you are conflating fan vs. market and they are not the same.

Iger has been bad for the parks (WDW in particular) and hit or miss elsewhere. Great. We all agree. That has nothing to do with the reality of the stock under him. If it did, why did it go up with each thing he implemented that P'd us off? Why did year after year of neglect drive it higher? Why does saying you are going to build new things drive it down?

In what way does the market align with your fan experience in the last 30-40 years? I am genuinely curious because I have found it nearly universally goes against my preferences over the long term with it occasionally aligning for brief stints.

 

[JD80]

You know

Again, I fell like you are conflating fan vs. market and they are not the same.

Iger has been bad for the parks (WDW in particular) and hit or miss elsewhere. Great. We all agree. That has nothing to do with the reality of the stock under him. If it did, why did it go up with each thing he implemented that P'd us off? Why did year after year of neglect drive it higher? Why does saying you are going to build new things drive it down?

In what way does the market align with your fan experience in the last 30-40 years? I am genuinely curious because I have found it nearly universally goes against my preferences over the long term with it occasionally aligning for brief stints.

You won't get an answer.

 

[GhostHost1000]

This is exactly the kind of comment I keep talking about.

In what universe do you think investors are going to hold Iger responsible for a drop when he wasn't running the company? They care about since he has returned and what they think will happen going forward. Chapek was in charge when the stock dropped 77% from its highs and Iger was full on retired during most of that. In order for Iger to even hit the same levels of stock apocalypse that Chapek oversaw DIS will need to hit $20.00 a share. Right now, since his return, it is down 2.3% under Iger and it is only recently it has been down at all.

Anyone who thinks a CEO is going to get canned (minus doing something publicly problematic) over a 2% drop is living in a complete and total fantasy.

Iger never fully retired. He was still the puppet master behind the curtain. Chapek was setup. Then thrown under the bus. Stock dropped a lot because of Iger things, chapek just helped it

 

[JoeCamel]

Yes. Welcome to how the market works.

If you don't think that had an impact, what is your explanation for why EVERY SINGLE park operator saw a large decline starting exactly when Comcast reported their attendance and revenue issues at the park? What exactly made Disney close at $94.13 before Comcast had their earnings call and the next day drop to $90.94? What new bit of information came along that would explain that?

As for Comcast going back up, that seems pretty standard to me. The market consistently over reacts when news first hits and then corrects over a few days. Once Dis reports we will see something similar either up or down as people get overtly excited if the earnings are better than expected or jump ship if worse.

knee jerk investors that day trade the interesting part is CC is back up 4% while DIS is not so the market motivation is not the same and using one to excuse the other is a fools game

 

[Lilofan]

Its hard to find fall guy #2 he can throw under the bus for his mistakes

Fall guy Chapek fired and walked away with $23M .

 

[erasure fan1]

If it did, why did it go up with each thing he implemented that P'd us off? Why did year after year of neglect drive it higher? Why does saying you are going to build new things drive it down?

I'd guess because wall street viewed Disney fans as chumps. Implement a bunch of nickel and dime initiatives, cut things from the park, raise prices significantly more than inflation..... Great! Those stupid Disney fans will still go, they'll still pay whatever. Of course wall street rewarded them. Maybe wall street sees they're going to have to spend a boat load of cash to fix things and they see the fan base has started reject Disney in significant enough numbers to have the pendulum swing back some.

 

[Lilofan]

Iger never fully retired. He was still the puppet master behind the curtain. Chapek was setup. Then thrown under the bus. Stock dropped a lot because of Iger things, chapek just helped it

Kept his office with bath and shower. Need to be looking fresh at Hollywood premiere after long day at office.

 

[LSLS]

Iger never fully retired. He was still the puppet master behind the curtain. Chapek was setup. Then thrown under the bus. Stock dropped a lot because of Iger things, chapek just helped it

To be fair, from what I've pieced together, that's not entirely true. He WANTED to be the puppet master, but Chapek kind of saw straight through that, so he cut Iger out completely. Then my guess is Iger worked behind the scenes with his people to get them to overthrow Chapek, leaving only him around to come back in. Chapek was setup to fail with Covid, but hilariously, he made it through that pretty well and failed all on his own, which gave Iger and his group the opening they wanted.

 

[John park hopper]

Disney stock is making a come back above 90

 

[Dranth]

knee jerk investors that day trade the interesting part is CC is back up 4% while DIS is not so the market motivation is not the same and using one to excuse the other is a fools game

Sure it is, the difference is one is now known and the market has adjusted to compensate for the always predictable over the top sell off. With Disney we are still operating under assumptions. Once they report we will see what happens.

There are a lot of people ASSUMING it will be down significantly and maybe it will, wouldn't surprise me at all and the market is certainly treating it that way but if reports are inline with expectations or guidance is good it goes right back up. That brand fans on the internet want it to confirm their beliefs is mostly irrelevant.

 

[Tha Realest]

It’s almost August.

Any word on the TEA report?

 

[Jrb1979]

It’s almost August.

Any word on the TEA report?

Word is the delay is due to it being the first season of fully open parks since COVID so it's taking longer to the the numbers

 

[Dranth]

I'd guess because wall street viewed Disney fans as chumps. Implement a bunch of nickel and dime initiatives, cut things from the park, raise prices significantly more than inflation..... Great! Those stupid Disney fans will still go, they'll still pay whatever. Of course wall street rewarded them. Maybe wall street sees they're going to have to spend a boat load of cash to fix things and they see the fan base has started reject Disney in significant enough numbers to have the pendulum swing back some.

I agree with a lot of that, but what people are leaving out is that if you spend money, at least the kind of money we all want, a lot of Wall Street walks away.

Seriously, have Bob leave right now and appoint the fans dream CEO. The INSTANT they spend more money than the street likes or drive costs above what the street thinks is appropriate, the stock DROPS. Once you are done spending and are starting to benefit from greater customer satisfaction, increased attendance, growth, etc. they cycle back in to ride it as long as it lasts.

Honest question, are these same people going to be on here when the new savior CEO spends all that money on everything we ever wanted posting about the stock going down anytime it does? Are they going to talk about the stock price as a measure of how terrible the new CEO is? I doubt it, which makes me look at the arguments these folks keep making as disingenuous at best.

 

[JoeCamel]

Sure it is, the difference is one is now known and the market has adjusted to compensate for the always predictable over the top sell off. With Disney we are still operating under assumptions. Once they report we will see what happens.

There are a lot of people ASSUMING it will be down significantly and maybe it will, wouldn't surprise me at all and the market is certainly treating it that way but if reports are inline with expectations or guidance is good it goes right back up. That brand fans on the internet want it to confirm their beliefs is mostly irrelevant.

I wish I was in the secret society that gets a hint before the report, futures trading just before they come out is usually something to watch. From a few hours to a few days in advance some larger trades get made and mostly hit the mark. I know its illegal but that rarely stopped people when they were chasing a quick score and enforcement seems to be lacking.

 

[erasure fan1]

Seriously, have Bob leave right now and appoint the fans dream CEO. The INSTANT they spend more money than the street likes or drive costs above what the street thinks is appropriate, the stock DROPS. Once you are done spending and are starting to benefit from greater customer satisfaction, increased attendance, growth, etc. they cycle back in to ride it as long as it lasts.

That's unfortunately the hole Iger dug the company into. As I've said before, decades of park stagnation was great for the short term financials. But it would seem as if the bill is coming due.

Honest question, are these same people going to be on here when the new savior CEO spends all that money on everything we ever wanted posting about the stock going down anytime it does? Are they going to talk about the stock price as a measure of how terrible the new CEO is? I doubt it, which makes me look at the arguments these folks keep making as disingenuous at best.

I'd say the answer here is, no. If the fans are getting what they want, they obviously won't care about the stock price. Disney is going to need to take a few lumps here. They went way too long with no proper expansion in the parks. So when they spend too much for what the investors want, yea, they might take a hit. But if what they build and what they do resonates with the fans, and good faith is restored. The impact should be minimal. Then it's back to a proper investment cycle so you don't have that same problem again. Now will whoever comes in after uncle Bobby care about long term? I guess we will see.

 

[Dranth]

Now will whoever comes in after uncle Bobby care about long term?

No, they won't. At least not until the markets start rewarding that management style again. My guess is whoever comes in cuts back on everything they are about to announce because they don't want to take the hit on the expenditure.

I wish I was in the secret society that gets a hint before the report, futures trading just before they come out is usually something to watch.

Just have to become a congress person in the US. They are allowed to insider trade all day long.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

One funny thing is, as someone who also frequents Royal Caribbean message boards, I am seeing a lot of the same complaints from the veterans as on her about Disney

Royal is getting too expensive, is nickel and dining, is forgetting their long term fans chasing new dollars, going after families with money to spend, etc

Seeing a lot of backlash on the new ships as too big and too loud. Food quality going downhill, etc.

So Royal is doing great right now but also feels like the other shoe could drop if they keep raising prices and reducing value (at least perceived by some)

And all those criticisms are certainly valid…

The difference is if Royal was LOSING their customers you could be damn sure they would have already turned the ship around….so to speak

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

..:somebody is believing the honey Bob has poured into their ears

Unfortunately it’s expiration date has passed