Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[Lilofan]

The first four things you mentioned are reasons to go less or not at all and I agree pricing would be the main driver. However, those explain the overall dip in attendance but not why there is a BIGGER dip in the late spring and summer vs. fall, winter and early spring.

Yes, we all know Florida is hot in the summer but people acting like sitting around an asphalt and concrete theme park in Orlando mid July is the same as going to a beach or going on a cruise ship. It isn't, at least not for a lot of people.

We have also had many posters on these boards come right out and say heat is the reason they don't go some days (for local APs) or moved their vacations to different months (like myself). Why not believe them?

There is much dislike for Iger by a few. He used weather as a reason for attendance issues like 7/4. This irony when some say weather is hotter in other areas as compared to WDW but does one for many hours of the day and night walk for miles and stand for long periods dripping like a wet sponge in their area like many do at WDW ?

 

[Dranth]

It is not a shift in times there are less people coming to the parks.

I think we all know that, at least I hope everyone does at this point. The question was why is the hotter months getting hit harder vs. the rest of the year.

 

[JoeCamel]

I think we all know that, at least I hope everyone does at this point. The question was why is the hotter months getting hit harder vs. the rest of the year.

Is it though?

 

[Grimley1968]

This thread has been going since May 2023. The lack of attendance may be more noticeable during what is usually the heaviest time of year, but it appears to be down pretty consistently in all weather and travel "seasons" since May 2023.

 

[GhostHost1000]

I know what you mean. But I can understand WDW wanting to save some money on that, and all their self promotion as an eco-friendly place would hardly permit that anymore, at least not to the extent of decades ago.

doesn't their eco-friendly solar farm power a lot now?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think we all know that, at least I hope everyone does at this point. The question was why is the hotter months getting hit harder vs. the rest of the year.

…I mean…if you had to pick 85 or 95…there’s not too much of a choice

But people always have and will have to navigate around the weather…it’s kinda part of life

 

[Grimley1968]

doesn't their eco-friendly solar farm power a lot now?

Seems like the most efficient thing would have been to cover those massive parking lots with raised solar panels, thereby producing electricity while also cooling thousands of cars in the lots. WDW could have given a "Living with the Sun" tour of such a thing - also a way to monetize those parking lot trams.

 

[nickf456]

This thread has been going since May 2023. The lack of attendance may be more noticeable during what is usually the heaviest time of year, but it appears to be down pretty consistently in all weather and travel "seasons" since May 2023.

Ok this response is gonna be long but just hang with me,

May 2023 was when I started my college program, WDW not busy when I moved down there and stayed quiet throughout the summer. Then suddenly in September, crowds both in the parks and resorts picked up and stayed that way through October. Quieted down a bit in November, but after Thanksgiving, crowds picked up significantly and stayed that way through the end of my program at January and crowds were like that until May from what I heard and now it seems like this cycle is repeating again.

I simply do think its a shift in when people prefer to travel, especially since the pandemic. Other than 2021, from what I understood every summer has been quiet. Yes, the weather has been hot like its always been, but it is now easier to take time off of work and/or pull kids out of school for a vacation, so people would prefer to travel when its cooler and cheaper. From my understanding, summer is still priced in the upper tier of the dynamic pricing structure, so people would rather just hold off and go when its slightly less expensive.

The weather is absolutely not the main reason why summer crowds are down, but it is a factor. Working at the resorts last summer, I talked to many guests who exclaimed that it was hard for them to stay in the parks when it is as hot and humid as it has been. I think people are holding off so not only that they spend less on an already very expensive vacation, but can at least enjoy their time outside walking around the parks instead of wanting to duck into A/C after 15 minutes in the Florida humidity.

This is just my two sense and observations I've had since living at WDW for most of 2023, working at the resorts, and going to the parks on a weekly basis.

 

[Lilofan]

Ok this response is gonna be long but just hang with me,

May 2023 was when I started my college program, WDW not busy when I moved down there and stayed quiet throughout the summer. Then suddenly in September, crowds both in the parks and resorts picked up and stayed that way through October. Quieted down a bit in November, but after Thanksgiving, crowds picked up significantly and stayed that way through the end of my program at January and crowds were like that until May from what I heard and now it seems like this cycle is repeating again.

I simply do think its a shift in when people prefer to travel, especially since the pandemic. Other than 2021, from what I understood every summer has been quiet. Yes, the weather has been hot like its always been, but it is now easier to take time off of work and/or pull kids out of school for a vacation, so people would prefer to travel when its cooler and cheaper. From my understanding, summer is still priced in the upper tier of the dynamic pricing structure, so people would rather just hold off and go when its slightly less expensive.

The weather is absolutely not the main reason why summer crowds are down, but it is a factor. Working at the resorts last summer, I talked to many guests who exclaimed that it was hard for them to stay in the parks when it is as hot and humid as it has been. I think people are holding off so not only that they spend less on an already very expensive vacation, but can at least enjoy their time outside walking around the parks instead of wanting to duck into A/C after 15 minutes in the Florida humidity.

This is just my two sense and observations I've had since living at WDW for most of 2023, working at the resorts, and going to the parks on a weekly basis.

Also some families pulled their kids out of schools during when school was in progress, parent worked remotely from the hotel room like my neighbor , then joined other parent and kids later in day at park , resort or Springs. The sweet part is that no company vacation time needed to be used by the parent working remotely.

 

[lewisc]

I think we all know that, at least I hope everyone does at this point. The question was why is the hotter months getting hit harder vs. the rest of the year.

Articles suggest that since covid parents have no issue pulling kids out of school for vacations. Less heat and nominal discounts.

Cost vs quality vs amenities. Disney loses vs alternative vacations

 

[Dranth]

Is it though?

Without access to official numbers well never know for sure but anecdotally it seems to be ture.

Also, I know it isn't perfect but if you take the average for each month using the Touring plans historical overall crowd levels for year to date 2024 vs. the same time of 2023 you get this:

	2023​	2024​	Change​
January	5.81​	5.87​	0.06​
February	5.93​	6.00​	0.07​
March	5.90​	5.77​	-0.13​
April	5.73​	4.70​	-1.03​
May	3.94​	4.45​	0.51​
June	5.57​	4.50​	-1.07​
July	4.22​	3.11​	-1.11​

So, January, February, March and May are essentially flat year over year. April, June and July are all down and I expect August and September to look similar with October - December looking more like early in the year with them coming in basically the same as last year.

 

[JoeCamel]

Without access to official numbers well never know for sure but anecdotally it seems to be ture.

Also, I know it isn't perfect but if you take the average for each month using the Touring plans historical overall crowd levels for year to date 2024 vs. the same time of 2023 you get this:

	2023​	2024​	Change​
January	5.81​	5.87​	0.06​
February	5.93​	6.00​	0.07​
March	5.90​	5.77​	-0.13​
April	5.73​	4.70​	-1.03​
May	3.94​	4.45​	0.51​
June	5.57​	4.50​	-1.07​
July	4.22​	3.11​	-1.11​

So, January, February, March and May are essentially flat year over year. April, June and July are all down and I expect August and September to look similar with October - December looking more like early in the year with them coming in basically the same as last year.

Disney says they have less guests, the hotels are wide open with rooms blocked out and travel is at an all time high. That says much more than historic crowd levels. Has Disney ever reported less in the parks without a catastrophic event? Nope, this is a new paradigm

 

[DisneyCane]

I think we all know that, at least I hope everyone does at this point. The question was why is the hotter months getting hit harder vs. the rest of the year.

Is it though?

It might just be more noticeable in the hotter months because, over time, those months have become less crowded vs. the cooler months. At some point people decided that they don't care if their kid misses a week of school to have a WDW vacation where they don't feel like they are inside an active volcano (without the odor except in some select spots). The percentage decrease could be similar throughout the year but the warm months drop below the threshold where the low crowds become noticeable.

 

[Nubs70]

Seems like the most efficient thing would have been to cover those massive parking lots with raised solar panels, thereby producing electricity while also cooling thousands of cars in the lots. WDW could have given a "Living with the Sun" tour of such a thing - also a way to monetize those parking lot trams.

Does Central Florida have hail storms?

 

[Grimley1968]

Does Central Florida have hail storms?

Florida has “smart hail” that never damages solar panels.

 

[Dranth]

Disney says they have less guests, the hotels are wide open with rooms blocked out and travel is at an all time high. That says much more than historic crowd levels. Has Disney ever reported less in the parks without a catastrophic event? Nope, this is a new paradigm

If I remember correctly they said that for their Q1 2024 report which covers October - December of 2023 and that was comparing it to Q1 of 2022. I don't recall them saying anything about it during the Q2 earnings call. The only mention I can think of was softer demand for Q3 with them expecting a rebound in Q4.

Also, I know Touring Plans isn't perfect but I bet it gets the general trends right.

 

[Poseidon Quest]

Ok this response is gonna be long but just hang with me,

May 2023 was when I started my college program, WDW not busy when I moved down there and stayed quiet throughout the summer. Then suddenly in September, crowds both in the parks and resorts picked up and stayed that way through October. Quieted down a bit in November, but after Thanksgiving, crowds picked up significantly and stayed that way through the end of my program at January and crowds were like that until May from what I heard and now it seems like this cycle is repeating again.

I simply do think its a shift in when people prefer to travel, especially since the pandemic. Other than 2021, from what I understood every summer has been quiet. Yes, the weather has been hot like its always been, but it is now easier to take time off of work and/or pull kids out of school for a vacation, so people would prefer to travel when its cooler and cheaper. From my understanding, summer is still priced in the upper tier of the dynamic pricing structure, so people would rather just hold off and go when its slightly less expensive.

The weather is absolutely not the main reason why summer crowds are down, but it is a factor. Working at the resorts last summer, I talked to many guests who exclaimed that it was hard for them to stay in the parks when it is as hot and humid as it has been. I think people are holding off so not only that they spend less on an already very expensive vacation, but can at least enjoy their time outside walking around the parks instead of wanting to duck into A/C after 15 minutes in the Florida humidity.

This is just my two sense and observations I've had since living at WDW for most of 2023, working at the resorts, and going to the parks on a weekly basis.

I recall summer 2022 being pretty crowded as well, which is why the lack of summer crowds last year was pretty notable. It's noticeably even fewer people this summer too. It could certainly be any of the factors you mentioned, but what's also interesting is the return of the dining plan and the massive discounts for Fall, implying that people aren't booking like they were, which likely means last year's attendance won't repeat. Even more interesting in the 30% discount on rooms AND free park hopping during peak holiday season, which is wild and indicates a pretty sheer drop-off in attendance.

I believe that last year may have been a major indicator of people perceiving a lack of value from WDW and this year may solidify that as being the case. It'll be interesting to see how Disney does next year when Epic opens and whether this leads to cross visitation with both resorts, but I think there's a good chance that Disney has just burned too many people and attendance may not recover until serious changes are implemented.

 

[HauntedPirate]

I recall summer 2022 being pretty crowded as well, which is why the lack of summer crowds last year was pretty notable. It's noticeably even fewer people this summer too. It could certainly be any of the factors you mentioned, but what's also interesting is the return of the dining plan and the massive discounts for Fall, implying that people aren't booking like they were, which likely means last year's attendance won't repeat. Even more interesting in the 30% discount on rooms AND free park hopping during peak holiday season, which is wild and indicates a pretty sheer drop-off in attendance.

I believe that last year may have been a major indicator of people perceiving a lack of value from WDW and this year may solidify that as being the case. It'll be interesting to see how Disney does next year when Epic opens and whether this leads to cross visitation with both resorts, but I think there's a good chance that Disney has just burned too many people and attendance may not recover until serious changes are implemented.

2022 was the last of the "pent-up demand" for travel. 2023 was the return to the norm, so to speak. Except people started staying away from WDW for some reason...

Rumor has it UOR is going to try and use ticketing options as the way to keep people on-site as long as they can when Epic Universe opens. Whether or not it's successful is, obviously, the billion dollar question.

 

[JD80]

Just putting some info of temps over the last 50 years so we can discuss heat with data.

 

[JD80]

One more.