I think the posted waits are for DAS users. Anything 10 minutes or less is instant ride. Otherwise, they get the posted wait minus 10 minutes through the LL. They use the posted waits as DAS traffic control. Can imagine what the LL would look like if they posted a 10 minute wait and everyone on DAS could ride instantly? It definitely would become a 70 minute wait for standby very quickly. Also, LL would fill up, and both DAS and LL users would complain about how LL were way too long and either not worth the money or don't meet their needs for shorter waits. Instead, Disney can delay DAS users from coming over for an hour and give standby guests a pleasant experience and DAS guests a good experience because fewer will book a 70 minute wait when they first get in the park. It's a win-win. Shorter waits for everyone.I mean, I study these lines for a living. My default assumption is that they're wrong because there's no revenue for Disney to gain by increasing the accuracy of posted wait times.
I don't think the reason is "Guests are happy when a posted wait of X ends up being Y."
That policy prevents guests from exercising their own judgement to decide the best use of their time. It's an incredibly patronizing example of "we know what's best for you so don't ask questions."
Here's an example from Slinky Dog last week.
As the day drew to a close, Slinky Dog's posted wait was 70 minutes at 8:15 pm. It had been at 70 minutes for about half an hour.
Twenty-two minutes later we timed an actual wait of 13 minutes. And we got actuals of 10 and 14 in rapid succession within a few minutes of that.
It's almost impossible to get a 57-minute reduction in actual waits in just 22 minutes of clock time. I'm sure I could come up with a scenario where literally nobody got in line, wheelchairs caused an extended delay, extra trains were added to the track, etc. But that almost certainly didn't happen here, and I think we all know that.
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To spell out the problem with "Posted of X ends up being Y", where Y < X, there are tons of people who would've got in a 10- to 20-minute line at Slinky, if they had been given accurate information about their wait. But they skipped riding because they didn't think it was worth 70 minutes. So they missed out on an enjoyable experience because of bad information.
Sorry for the long post. What do you think the reason is?
Also, I have been learning about VIP tours, and many people in the groups suggest letting your tour guide optimize your day for you because they are the experts and have phones with access to all sorts of info. Really, I think it's another case of coordinating with other VIP groups (50-100 on any given day, 150 on busy days). It seems they almost all want to do the headliners in each park. However, it wouldn't feel like much of a VIP experience if you were in a 30+ minute LL line with 20 other VIP groups. Yes, it's optimized, but not necessarily just in the interest of your personal desires. Really, I go with a touringplan and rope drop on a low to moderate day, and I can do WAY MORE rides than 17 in 7 hours, which is what I am seeing most frequently. I've seen people say they are doing a crazy number of steps too, even though they get driven around backstage in a van. I'd be interested to see what an optimized 4 park headliner itinerary would actually look like, and it wouldn't surprise me if it could be quite close in terms of steps and waiting if you took Minivans between parks and did G+ and ILL as well as rope dropping early entry.