Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[PREMiERdrum]

I would think that attendance at MK this weekend alone should be enough to force some change. Like @lentesta said, a 1/10 on a major US Holiday has to be some sort of unprecedented record (and not in a good way).

If they want to get people into their hotels they need to do at least some of the following things:

• Bring back bags/magical express (not sure how they bring back bags since the company went under but try to figure it out - it's TWDC, they can do it if they want)
• Restore some sort of semblance of EMH's in their traditional format (not just for Deluxe guests in the evenings)
• They've GOT to do something about the Genie, although I know they'll never want to give up that revenue (maybe this is a buy x days get x days free type thing if you're staying on site
• They need to lower ticket prices for people staying on property - often times we talk about going down for a quick trip, but it's the ticket costs that deter us, not the hotel prices (because you can often get a decent hotel discount at a value/moderate which is fine for a quick trip).

Their own drawn-out mishandling of this has actually created several problems from one:
- They supplemented big dips in hotel occupancy by farming out cheaper gate clicks at the parks from elsewhere.
- This shift to a higher portion of offsite guests changed guest spending habits, along with the amount of each guest's vacation spending they're getting.
- Now they have a baseline / sunk cost of both the hotel business (already in bad shape, trending stable to worse) and the park business (up and down but trending worse). The high margin alcohol and merchandise categories are being negatively impacted by the shift away from onsite guests.

They're not too far from having to either implement actual correction to the product or right-sizing their business where possible. One of those options could get ugly quick.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I would think that attendance at MK this weekend alone should be enough to force some change. Like @lentesta said, a 1/10 on a major US Holiday has to be some sort of unprecedented record (and not in a good way).

If they want to get people into their hotels they need to do at least some of the following things:

• Bring back bags/magical express (not sure how they bring back bags since the company went under but try to figure it out - it's TWDC, they can do it if they want)
• Restore some sort of semblance of EMH's in their traditional format (not just for Deluxe guests in the evenings)
• They've GOT to do something about the Genie, although I know they'll never want to give up that revenue (maybe this is a buy x days get x days free type thing if you're staying on site
• They need to lower ticket prices for people staying on property - often times we talk about going down for a quick trip, but it's the ticket costs that deter us, not the hotel prices (because you can often get a decent hotel discount at a value/moderate which is fine for a quick trip).

In my opinion, attendance is one metric, just like the box office is one metric.

I think today, Disney is focused on per capita spending at the parks, not attendance numbers.

 

[LSLS]

Magic Kingdom was a crowd level '1' (out of 10, 10=highest) on Memorial Day. I think that's unprecedented.

• EPCOT = 8 / 10
• DHS = 4
• DAK = 5
• Disneyland = 8
• DCA = 9
• Universal Studios Florida = 9
• IOA = 5

What is far and away the most interesting part to me is that it's the lowest of the Disney parks. I wonder what the reasoning would be that you are seeing such a larger dip at MK compared to Epcot/DHS/DAK. Were there blackouts for just MK from pass holders/cast?

 

[Tha Realest]

In my opinion, attendance is one metric, just like the box office is one metric.

I think today, Disney is focused on per capita spending at the parks, not attendance numbers.

Jenny Nicholson has a great video of the follies involved in chasing after whales to the exclusion of a more middle class friendly audience.

 

[LSLS]

In my opinion, attendance is one metric, just like the box office is one metric.

I think today, Disney is focused on per capita spending at the parks, not attendance numbers.

Based on what Premier said about alarms, I don't think that's truly the case. And heck, if it is the case, there is still going to be large concern because revenues have been DOWN at WDW the past few quarters.

 

[rtmachine]

What is far and away the most interesting part to me is that it's the lowest of the Disney parks. I wonder what the reasoning would be that you are seeing such a larger dip at MK compared to Epcot/DHS/DAK. Were there blackouts for just MK from pass holders/cast?

yes

 

[Ayla]

I would think that attendance at MK this weekend alone should be enough to force some change. Like @lentesta said, a 1/10 on a major US Holiday has to be some sort of unprecedented record (and not in a good way).

If they want to get people into their hotels they need to do at least some of the following things:

• Bring back bags/magical express (not sure how they bring back bags since the company went under but try to figure it out - it's TWDC, they can do it if they want)
• Restore some sort of semblance of EMH's in their traditional format (not just for Deluxe guests in the evenings)
• They've GOT to do something about the Genie, although I know they'll never want to give up that revenue (maybe this is a buy x days get x days free type thing if you're staying on site
• They need to lower ticket prices for people staying on property - often times we talk about going down for a quick trip, but it's the ticket costs that deter us, not the hotel prices (because you can often get a decent hotel discount at a value/moderate which is fine for a quick trip).

Bags, Inc is alive and well. https://www.bagsinc.com/

 

[jpeden]

Bags, Inc is alive and well. https://www.bagsinc.com/

Good to know - then they really could bring back DME if they wanted by just getting back under contract with Bags and Mears.

 

[Drdcm]

Bags, Inc is alive and well. https://www.bagsinc.com/

What’s cool about bags inc is that they’ll deliver your bags to a non-Disney hotel… where I’ll be staying if they don’t bring back more perks.

Uber will take me right to Universal Orlando

Edit: ah my joke didn’t work. I didn’t realize that bags inc contracted with Disney

 

[Disstevefan1]

Based on what Premier said about alarms, I don't think that's truly the case. And heck, if it is the case, there is still going to be large concern because revenues have been DOWN at WDW the past few quarters.

I did not know revenues were down for WDW the last few quarters. Frankly, I am surprised to hear that.

 

[Nubs70]

Taylor Swift wasn’t stateside and the box office didn’t have any big effect.

Maybe everyone was watching the Jenny Nicholson video instead?

Taylor Swift was in Portugal this weekend.

On WDW attendance over the weekend. The shift away from MK appears , IMO, that locals and day trippers were the majority and dispersed to other parks with a higher amount of activities that are not tied to LL.

The deficit that was MK, I believe, is that the long stay parties are not going to WDW. MCO had potentially seen its highest passenger load in its history this past weekend. Yet, MK was a ghost town. People are traveling but not to WDW. With individual purchasing power falling, customers are finding better values elsewhere.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Magic Kingdom was a crowd level '1' (out of 10, 10=highest) on Memorial Day. I think that's unprecedented.

• EPCOT = 8 / 10
• DHS = 4
• DAK = 5
• Disneyland = 8
• DCA = 9
• Universal Studios Florida = 9
• IOA = 5

 

[el_super]

Probably something to do with it. Probably will happen again on the 4th.

That makes sense. Pretty sure we've made the comparison in this thread before, but it's also aligned with the downturn in theater audiences (since this weekend was a bust at the Box Office). It's almost like a certain demographic just wants to NOT be confined in an area with a lot of strangers....

Woke up to some interesting messages. Alarms are ringing louder than ever.

This thread has been here for a year now. What's changed in the last year? Not a whole lot. I'm thinking they're going to stay the course. They must have the signals indicating that their current plan is working in their favor, over whatever bad news you think you have.

What is far and away the most interesting part to me is that it's the lowest of the Disney parks. I wonder what the reasoning would be that you are seeing such a larger dip at MK compared to Epcot/DHS/DAK. Were there blackouts for just MK from pass holders/cast?

Yes. It makes sense that they would rather take a day of bad attendance ( which must have been magical for any of the guests and cast working that day ) than to keep conditioning people on this idea of cheap / free admission.

Actually when thinking about it, I wonder if this is actually a good indicator of why this is such a uniquely exaggerated problem in Central Florida: So many people living in the area are connected to the theme park business and KNOW someone that can get them in for so cheap, that too much of the attendance at the parks was dragging down the per-Cap Spending (or are we going with ARPU now?)

 

[LSLS]

I did not know revenues were down for WDW the last few quarters. Frankly, I am surprised to hear that.

This has been in the reports for the last few.

 

[Drdcm]

This has been in the reports for the last few.
View attachment 787973

My bad. They got me with their spin I suppose. Sorry for contradicting you

 

[PREMiERdrum]

This thread has been here for a year now. What's changed in the last year? Not a whole lot. I'm thinking they're going to stay the course. They must have the signals indicating that their current plan is working in their favor, over whatever bad news you think you have.

There has been an unsupported internal belief that their measures would take hold and beat the trend. With bookings out on a long calendar, there has been enough leeway to imagine a light at the end.

This summer season is going to be brutal for them.

 

[LSLS]

My bad. They got me with their spin I suppose. Sorry for contradicting you

No worries. Yeah, for a while it's been buried quite well. They said a lot of "Domestic Parks saw a modest increase in revenues...." and then like 6 bullet points down they say WDW had a decrease.

 

[el_super]

I did not know revenues were down for WDW the last few quarters. Frankly, I am surprised to hear that.

Since parks revenue is up overall, whatever the decrease at WDW was, it had to be small enough to be overcome by the other parks/cruise line.

The deficit that was MK, I believe, is that the long stay parties are not going to WDW.

Just looking over the data at thrill-data.com for a bit and it looks like Universal had higher average wait times the weekend prior as well. The real winner of the weekend seems to have been Epcot which... I mean.... who knows why.

It also looks like MK is bouncing back today already.

 

[Jrb1979]

There has been an unsupported internal belief that their measures would take hold and beat the trend. With bookings out on a long calendar, there has been enough leeway to imagine a light at the end.

This summer season is going to be brutal for them.

It blows my mind they are banking on Epic Universe to draw people to Orlando and hope those people will also visit Disney at the same time.

 

[Disstevefan1]

This has been in the reports for the last few.
View attachment 787973

Ah, modest decrease in revenue at WDW combined with higher costs.

Looks like they need a out of cycle price increase for everything in WDW.