Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[TheMaxRebo]

I apologize as I have not been following this thread;

1) Are attendance declines predicted to hold through the Fall and Holidays? Or is there not much discounting going on for that window?
2) Is a soft summer really that much cause for actual longterm concern? I thought there are a ton of price levers and discounting they still haven't really budged on.
3) How is this any worse than Disneyland's 2019 summer? At least WDW has almost nothing new to show or promote, it's not surprising the crowds are light.
4) Is Universal slow this summer? Is this a Disney problem or a Florida tourism problem?

So some of this is just opinion as we don't have any concrete data, but here are my thoughts ..

1) We don't know for certain but seems to be plenty of resort availability even around the holidays and the discounts, while nothing unheard of, did come out pretty early. The first Halloween party sold out just about the same time as last year so seems still solid interest in that. So if we had to guess, yes things will be soft, but probably not *as* soft as they have the holidays and the parties, etc as draws. Bigger thing will be watching how thing look post the new year I think

2) I personally don't think it is a huge red alarm on its own - part of it is crowd levels peaked in 2019 and were super strong in 2021-2022 with revenge travel, now it just seems back to 2015-17 level. BUT combined with not much new coming while Universal had new lands and a whole new theme park, it could be an early sign of trouble int he future

3) I can't speak to the DLR comment specifically but yeah, I don't think we should be surprised crowds are a little light (summer had been decreasing anyway) - I think a lot of this started with rather light crowds seen on July 4th which is usually a popular date. Take that out of things and now sure the alarms would be so loud/this thread would be so long

4) Universal appears to be slow this summer compared to last BUT not *as* slow as Disney - so some of it does seem to be just a summer travel to central Florida theme parks are down (following such strong attendance in revenge travel) but then exacerbated but some challenges specific to Disney


I am sure others will view things much more dire and as a sign the company will be going out of business within 90 days

 

[LSLS]

So, by your logic heat/weather can never have an impact? There are obviously many factors to the lower attendance as many who have brought up the heat have mentioned with the major one being pricing. But when there are news reports of extreme heat advisories and heat indexes into the 110s, then yes it can and will impact people going to the parks. Even those who booked months ago. Maybe they just decide to wait until the evening to wait out the sun and get a few hours in and watch the fireworks.

Except the wait times don't show that, the peak times were 2:00. Which at like Hollywood studios meant waiting 20 minutes for Rise. Oh, and the fact that the only resort without rooms that week was carribean beach.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

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Let me guess, Halloween parties start in July now.

 

[Poseidon Quest]

4) Is Universal slow this summer? Is this a Disney problem or a Florida tourism problem?

4) Universal appears to be slow this summer compared to last BUT not *as* slow as Disney - so some of it does seem to be just a summer travel to central Florida theme parks are down (following such strong attendance in revenge travel) but then exacerbated but some challenges specific to Disney

I can confirm, Universal isn't nearly as crazy as the last two years but it does seem to be faring better than Disney. Tourism is down in the state, but Universal appears to have a stronger hold. I went last Saturday to check out Villain-Con after people were posting about it opening and as someone who avoids Saturdays because I hate the crowds, I was surprised by how light they were in the park. It was actually quite pleasant how few people were there.

 

[jinx8402]

Another thing I wouldn't discount is the 50th anniversary. I know we all here basically laughed at the offerings, because they were lacking big time (unless you love cupcakes). However, I think there was just enough to get people to change their typical travel time and go during the celebration. It does feel like we've had more and more it's dead here anecdotes since the end of the 50th.

It's definitely a compounding of issues, some self inflicted and other external pressures. And I don't think you can discount any of it (and yes that still includes weather when looking at specific days when you wouldn't expect that specific day to have attendance issues).

 

[JoeCamel]

Another thing I wouldn't discount is the 50th anniversary. I know we all here basically laughed at the offerings, because they were lacking big time (unless you love cupcakes). However, I think there was just enough to get people to change their typical travel time and go during the celebration. It does feel like we've had more and more it's dead here anecdotes since the end of the 50th.

It's definitely a compounding of issues, some self inflicted and other external pressures. And I don't think you can discount any of it (and yes that still includes weather when looking at specific days when you wouldn't expect that specific day to have attendance issues).

But they rolled into the 100th celebration! Like a garden into food.....into holidays.....into arts.....

 

[Animaniac93-98]

But they rolled into the 100th celebration! Like a garden into food.....into holidays.....into arts.....

The Circle of Festivals.

 

[JoeCamel]

The Circle of Festivals.

Synergy -bob

 

[DisneyHead123]

I apologize as I have not been following this thread;

1) Are attendance declines predicted to hold through the Fall and Holidays? Or is there not much discounting going on for that window?
2) Is a soft summer really that much cause for actual longterm concern? I thought there are a ton of price levers and discounting they still haven't really budged on.
3) How is this any worse than Disneyland's 2019 summer? At least WDW has almost nothing new to show or promote, it's not surprising the crowds are light.
4) Is Universal slow this summer? Is this a Disney problem or a Florida tourism problem?

1) Yes, there are discounts through the fall and holiday season, and they seem to be slowly expanding to more choice resorts as time goes by. That said, they aren't exactly offering the moon. No free dining plan (that I know of) which was often a staple "discount" in the past, some of the more sought-after resorts aren't that much off a night and there are a limited number of rooms that qualify for said discount rate, so the "discounted" rooms at popular resorts still sell out fast. "Discounts" are basically "2019 prices", overall.

2/3/4:

There is much speculation as to why bookings at Disney are down. The top contenders (ranked according to my thoughts on likely relevance) are:

1. Having already traveled domestically, people are traveling to places that were inaccessible until recently, so a rush of travelers abroad.
2. Customers had bad experiences post Covid (high crowds, supply and labor shortages diminishing experience but paired with big price increases, changes to the system like dropping DME and FP+ while adding park reservations / hopping restrictions / Genie+) which led to bad word of mouth - personally I notice that one a lot. I've heard people bemoaning their post Covid Disney trips and even angrily vowing not to go back until FP+ or DME is back. People take things more personally when it comes to a Disney vacation.
3. Inflation / fears of recession
4. Many people visit Disney every 2-3 years and post Covid travel "reset" this cycle so that all the 2-3 year travelers visited in the same year and are now "off" in the same years
5. Reasons We Shall Not Speak Of Because They Result In Comment Deletion (cough politics cough)
6. Lack of new rides and attractions in the past few year
7. Limited Disney box office hits in the past few years
8. Florida is hot

Interestingly, I was just talking to a relative in NJ and they also had many theories as to why bookings are down at the family-oriented parts of the Jersey shore this year. (They said they know a lot of people who suddenly decided they needed to visit Europe, even though in pre-Covid times, when they easily could have gone, they never would have considered it. Keeping up with the Joneses, maybe? Everyone is going abroad so everyone's neighbor is going abroad too?) I've wanted to try a vacation in Hilton Head for awhile now and I notice that prices seem more reasonable there as well. I think all around, there was a big post-Covid surge in domestic travel and it seemed to sharply drop off this year. The big question is, will this continue, level off, or reverse? I don't think anyone has an answer to that, especially with an uncertain economy.

 

[crispy]

Agreed. When a five night stay at a comparable resort with comparable park tickets during the same dates costs twice as much at WDW, someone has their head in the sand.

Not to mention that the Universal value resorts are just way better that Disney's. They aren't luxurious, but the feel much nicer because they don't have external access to the rooms, they have a Starbucks in the lobby, much nicer lobby areas, a fitness center, and much, much, much better transportation. They are also constantly checking in to make sure you have what you need. If I text and ask for something like extra towels, they have provided them very quickly. I am a huge fan of both Dockside and Surfside.

 

[DisneyHead123]

They aren't luxurious, but the feel much nicer because they don't have external access to the rooms, they have a Starbucks in the lobby, much nicer lobby areas, a fitness center, and much, much, much better transportation.

Total pet peeve of mine. I don’t get how Disney decided to make their 300-bucks-a-night hotel rooms “motel style” with external opening doors. It’s not like having a hallway is the mark of a Ritz Carlton. You can find them at the Red Roof Inn but not for Disney prices? That makes no sense.

 

[Lilofan]

Total pet peeve of mine. I don’t get how Disney decided to make their 300-bucks-a-night hotel rooms “motel style” with external opening doors. It’s not like having a hallway is the mark of a Ritz Carlton. You can find them at the Red Roof Inn but not for Disney prices? That makes no sense.

Because they can and many who come will and do pay for them including the higher rates of 12/25-31.

 

[Lilofan]

Not to mention that the Universal value resorts are just way better that Disney's. They aren't luxurious, but the feel much nicer because they don't have external access to the rooms, they have a Starbucks in the lobby, much nicer lobby areas, a fitness center, and much, much, much better transportation. They are also constantly checking in to make sure you have what you need. If I text and ask for something like extra towels, they have provided them very quickly. I am a huge fan of both Dockside and Surfside.

You have described accurate info instead of one factor to name a few - guest service which Disney cast in resorts are known for and are better at. Last time I stayed at UO was at Hard Rock.

 

[Thepuma]

The crowds are so low in Disney that Avatar was ONLY a 2 and a half hour wait yesterday

 

[Thepuma]

I was at MK this morning until around 2 PM. This is how some of it looked.View attachment 732112View attachment 732113View attachment 732114View attachment 732115View attachment 732116View attachment 732117Now I know that this is a one day anecdotal snippet of photos. But I found it interesting how empty it felt. And the one that really got me was Pecos Billy’s. I have been in that QS at numerous times of the year over the past decade. I have never seen it this empty, and this was at noon.

Now I don’t know, maybe the park filled up after we left, but you could tell it was empty. The nice walkway in Frontierland along the river was complete void of people. And when the FoF parade came buy there were spaces everywhere.

Who knows, maybe this is more of what they want. Fewer people paying significantly more than what they were spending before the pandemic. I just think from a PR perspective it doesn’t look great. And sorry, but I won’t be blaming the weather on this phenomenon. It is hot, no denying that. But it isn’t so hot that I am agreeing with Sweater Guy. He’s doing exactly what he needs to do - not panicking the shareholders. As far as I can tell though, a lot of the social media pictures match to what I have been seeing on day 1. Still enjoying the Riviera Resort though

Yet the wait times for the rides was on a par with busy days?

 

[BrianLo]

Interestingly, I was just talking to a relative in NJ and they also had many theories as to why bookings are down at the family-oriented parts of the Jersey shore this year. (They said they know a lot of people who suddenly decided they needed to visit Europe, even though in pre-Covid times, when they easily could have gone, they never would have considered it. Keeping up with the Joneses, maybe? Everyone is going abroad so everyone's neighbor is going abroad too?) I've wanted to try a vacation in Hilton Head for awhile now and I notice that prices seem more reasonable there as well. I think all around, there was a big post-Covid surge in domestic travel and it seemed to sharply drop off this year. The big question is, will this continue, level off, or reverse? I don't think anyone has an answer to that, especially with an uncertain economy.

Ya that's an interesting anecdote for sure. Cruise lines are also reporting record bookings so I do take some heed to the places that were more 'off limits' now seeing the targeted rebound. Or I guess one could make the argument there are also just more things to do in general. I wonder if the International crowds really came back to WDW.

 

[jinx8402]

But they rolled into the 100th celebration! Like a garden into food.....into holidays.....into arts.....

Eh. That was not specifically for the wdw resort. Two different things really. And while they did very little in parks for the 50th, they are doing even less and primarily just in Epcot. Also marketing seemed to be stronger for the 50th than what I am seeing here in the North East.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

Who knows, maybe this is more of what they want. Fewer people paying significantly more than what they were spending before the pandemic. I just think from a PR perspective it doesn’t look great. And sorry, but I won’t be blaming the weather on this phenomenon. It is hot, no denying that. But it isn’t so hot that I am agreeing with Sweater Guy. He’s doing exactly what he needs to do - not panicking the shareholders. As far as I can tell though, a lot of the social media pictures match to what I have been seeing on day 1. Still enjoying the Riviera Resort though

That's what they said they wanted, but then the parks seemed more crowded than ever and wait times remained astronomical all last year. So, however they were managing costs and reservations, it wasn't resulting in a more relaxed visit to the parks on any level.

Honestly, those pictures look lovely to me and I don't think they would be bad PR at all if this was the result of Disney intentionally setting out to make visiting the parks a more enjoyable experience. If the narrative became "Disney is more expensive, but more relaxed and enjoyable while Universal is cheaper but more crowded", I would be all in for that. It seems, though, that this is not by design.

 

[CntrlFlPete]

not sure how Disney will do this week, but to me, it feels like there are a lot more people in town this week than there has been thus far this summer.

I find it so odd that folks here always speak of the impact of local AP'ers on the park. Then the 4th hits (on a non weekend), the temps are hotter than ever, those not here do not understand that it is not typical for it to be in the low 90's at 8PM at night. My guess is locals did avoid going outside in the heat and many probably figured the crowds (expected) and the heat made it not worth the hassle.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Because they can and many who come will and do pay for them including the higher rates of 12/25-31.

$300 is the “discounted” price for POFQ in November.

I get that they can, but is having a hallway even that much more expensive? It just seems like a vaguely in-your-face way to scream “motel!”, and to what end really?