MerlinTheGoat
Well-Known Member
I know, that's why I said I know about the statistical chances. But the chances of this not hitting the coast as a hurricane are obscenely slim. Like not even worth considering for the layman. People shouldn't look at those chances and think there's actually any hope the thing will fizzle out to a tropical storm and/or take a turn away from FL entirely.
One of the staff of Storm2k, wxman, was claiming the other day that he believed it would end up turning south and hitting between Sarasota and Ft Myers. Even boldly saying closer to Ft Myers was plausible. He's a moderator over there and well respected among the hurricane watching community and apparently has a great track record (he has a career at a private weather prediction company I gather). However, while he was still saying a southern turn was possible as of yesterday, he has since softened on the prediction and deferred to the Tampa projection of the NHC.
There are degrees for what damage it could cause and maybe some minor changes to where it touches land. But I don't see any possibility it won't hit the central western coast of FL as a nasty hurricane.
The consensus of the path in the major (and even most minor) models has been disturbing. I also had a sort of morbid laugh the other day when the NHC threw some shade at some of the models that were showing a shift away from Tampa. That was a bold thing to call out, but also to me indicates they're extremely confident in their claims. That sort of uncharacteristic confidence from them isn't comforting. I can't remember any other point where they've outright called out model dissent like that.
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