Gringrinngghost
Well-Known Member
Pressure is back down to 925.
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Hurricane Milton coming to FL
- Thread starter Touchdown
- Start date
Orlando has a 5-20% chance of getting hurricane-force winds (greater than 75mph).
The shore, 50-60%.
Orlando has a 30-50% chance of getting winds over 60 mph.
The coast, 70-80%
Orlando has a 80-90% chance of tropical-storm-force winds (over 40 mph).
The coast... 100%.
The shore, 50-60%.
Orlando has a 30-50% chance of getting winds over 60 mph.
The coast, 70-80%
Orlando has a 80-90% chance of tropical-storm-force winds (over 40 mph).
The coast... 100%.
Mr. Sullivan
Well-Known Member
I take it you’ve not been to SeaWorld in awhile
That's what he reported.
Current track has Milton making landfall just north of Sarasota.
Gringrinngghost
Well-Known Member
While good for Tampa/St. Pete and Orlando, Sarasota is still trying to recover from Helene.
TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
It’s buried a few pages back, but their path maps aren’t accurately matching their county-specific forecasts. The Cat 2 over Orlando map can’t be right if they’re forecasting a Cat 1 at most in Polk.
ETA the current WESH forecast for Orange:
MerlinTheGoat
Well-Known Member
Okay, WFTV is saying that the 100mph winds for the "Orlando" area are gusts, and they're also claiming that these will largely affect areas to the south of Kissimmee such as St Cloud. Orlando itself based on the current track had lower guests. I think I heard the lady say about 75 mph gusts for Orlando, but somewhat lower sustained. So what it happening is they're taking a generalized NOAA map that was given to them and making more specific predictions for individual areas within central Florida and even individual towns within specific counties.
Problem is that these claims are also based on current projections. Yesterday, this storm wasn't supposed to be a Cat 2 when it reached middle FL. The path has also changed slightly and is further South than it was.
OLD- These local channels are putting out very confusing and contradictory messages. The raw track (which are the same on all channels and I assume is taken directly from NOAA) shows a Cat 2 when it reaches Orlando with 100+ mph sustained winds (which is consistent with the stats as Cat 2's are 96-110 mph sustained, gusts being higher). However, their hour by hour wind speed map is showing vastly lower speeds. Didn't reach over like 65-75 mph, and I think they were only measuring gusts. Whichever is the more accurate, and I assume at this point it would be the track showing a Cat 2, there's some dangerously confusing inaccuracies being shown.
Problem is that these claims are also based on current projections. Yesterday, this storm wasn't supposed to be a Cat 2 when it reached middle FL. The path has also changed slightly and is further South than it was.
OLD- These local channels are putting out very confusing and contradictory messages. The raw track (which are the same on all channels and I assume is taken directly from NOAA) shows a Cat 2 when it reaches Orlando with 100+ mph sustained winds (which is consistent with the stats as Cat 2's are 96-110 mph sustained, gusts being higher). However, their hour by hour wind speed map is showing vastly lower speeds. Didn't reach over like 65-75 mph, and I think they were only measuring gusts. Whichever is the more accurate, and I assume at this point it would be the track showing a Cat 2, there's some dangerously confusing inaccuracies being shown.
The shore is 100% getting hurricane force winds. I know how statistics work of course, but it needs to just be stated in case anyone tries to latch onto these 20-30% numbers of it not happening and pulls a Dumb and Dumber "So you're saying there's a chance". At this point, there's also a 0% chance Orlando will miss out on TS force winds, and it's looking nearly certain we will get hurricane force too. Barring a miraculous weakening cycle that defies science or a major curve north or south that changes its landfall position. The models however have been extremely consistent and in agreement about it slamming into Tampa and immediate areas (with even less accurate models only skewing slightly north or south).
networkpro
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- Yes
I'm glad to see solid traffic on 75 from Ocala through Atlanta since 5 this morning.
Gringrinngghost
Well-Known Member
Code:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 081742
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT MILTON'S INTENSITY
HAS REBOUNDED...
...TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR
FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 88.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* East coast of Florida from Port Canaveral northward to the mouth
of the St. Mary's River, including the St. Johns River.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line
northward to Ponte Vedra Beach
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Canaveral to Sebastian Inlet
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County
Line to Flamingo
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island,
the Abacos, and Bimini.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 88.2 West. Although Milton has
been wobbling during the past few hours, its longer-term motion is
toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin
later today and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track,
the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
approach the west-central coast of Florida through Wednesday. The
center is likely to make landfall along the west-central coast of
Florida on Wednesday night, and move east-northeastward across
central Florida through Thursday.
Aircraft reconnaissance data and satellite images indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h)
with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in
intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 923 mb
(27.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Port Canaveral, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with
moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday.
Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals
around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue in the
warning areas in Mexico today.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area
on the west coast of Florida Wednesday morning, spreading across
the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the extreme northwestern
Bahamas on Thursday.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday
night.
SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster BergMerlinTheGoat
Well-Known Member
The map showing a Cat 2 over Orlando i've figured out is from NOAA. WESH, WFTV and Click Orlando are all using that same general map. The channels however are making more specific predictions for individual towns. They're also forecasting lower sustained winds for most areas than the NOAA map indicates. They've had a few areas in Polk that "might" reach 100+ mph gusts, but still much lower sustained than the NOAA track's Cat 2 claim. Polk can also be prone to tornadoes. North of Kissimmee has much much lower wind speeds, with sustained at high tropical rather than even a Cat 1. And gusts also being on the lower Cat 1 side.
The question is whether these local channels are downplaying the storm.
There's been talk of it weakening as it approaches the shore. The models they have give that a small chance it will unexpectedly decrease to sub-hurricane winds. It could happen. But a small chance.
That's how models and math works.
Hurricanes have been known to do unexpected things: speed up or slow down their trajectory; lose their eyewall; strengthen or weaken; spread out or close in.
Models take that into account and based on past experiences of surprises, give a percent chance.
It's like how everyone who understands the cone of probability keeps lecturing those who think that's how wide the hurricane is that they're wrong. The hurricane could be here.... or... 100 miles to the north. It's rare to get 100% certainty.
The cone of uncertainty shows uncertainty. That gets put into probabilistic terms, like percentages.
Meanwhile there’s a Halloween Party Tonight at the Magic Kingdom!
SoFloMagic
Well-Known Member
Levi Cowan/tropical tidbits feels we won't know for sure until just before landfall. He wants to see wind shear timing vs eyewall replacement cycles. Still some hope this could be a disaster vs a catastrophe
SingleRider
Premium Member
They probably want to have it so they don’t have to refund tickets…