Yes, hurricanes don't really sneak up, and good thing peoplenjad cell phones and communicated with people present and calling them. Charley.opened people's eyes after a decade plus of nothing too wild, but residents and visitors were aware. Most knew before they flew or drove to their vacation.
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Hurricane Milton coming to FL
- Thread starter Touchdown
- Start date
Yes, hurricanes don't really sneak up, and good thing peoplenjad cell phones and communicated with people present and calling them. Charley.opened people's eyes after a decade plus of nothing too wild, but residents and visitors were aware. Most knew before they flew or drove to their vacation.
Not saying it will, Orlando is essentially guaranteed to expedite Hurricane conditions.
Gringrinngghost
Well-Known Member
Code:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 071147
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Special Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW MILTON RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 92.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a
Tropical Storm Warning from south of Celestun to Campeche.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee
River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee
* Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be issued later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 92.2 West. Milton is moving
toward the east-southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). An eastward to
east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a
turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just north of
the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula
by Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further strengthening is
expected, and Milton is forecast to become an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane later today and maintain that intensity for
the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches)
based Air Force dropsonde data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft
Tampa Bay...8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin as early as this morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico beginning
tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on
Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next
day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Code:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 071149
TCDAT4
Hurricane Milton Special Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Milton continues to rapidly strengthen. The Air
Force aircraft very recently reported a peak flight-level wind of
120 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to
around 945 mb, which is down about 9 mb from a previous dropsonde
report from the NOAA aircraft about an hour ago. This special
advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to
110 kt, and to increase the short term intensity forecast that now
shows a peak wind speed of 135 kt in 24 hours.
The aircraft fixes were also a little south of the previous
forecast track and a southward adjustment to the official track
forecast has been made through 36 hours. Hurricane-force winds
are explicitly forecast to affect the northern coast of Yucatan,
and residents in that area should rush preparations to completion.
The updated track forecast has necessitated the government of Mexico
to issue a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from Celestun
southward to Campeche. The storm surge forecast has been increased
to 3 to 5 feet above ground level for portions of the northern coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula.
No changes to the NHC track or intensity forecast were made after
36 hours.
This special advisory was issued in lieu of the normal intermediate
advisory.
Key Messages:
1. Dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A life-threatening
storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge
and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should
follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to
do so.
3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and
areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major
river flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1200Z 21.8N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.6N 91.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 21.8N 89.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Blake/BrownIt is incredible that all surrounding counties have closed the schools , Tampa starting today , but Orange ( Orlando ) still as of last night has not announced any school closings.
Gringrinngghost
Well-Known Member
That's because they stated that they were going to have a meeting on that today.
John park hopper
Well-Known Member
this is from the weather channel if this prediction is correct Orlando looks to have a cat 1 storm
IanDLBZF
Well-Known Member
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
Orange County is not the only county that has not yet announced school closures. Adjacent Seminole and Lake counties have also not yet announced school closures. They also haven’t been silent and have said to expect announcements today.
Ayla
Well-Known Member
At least, since it is predicted to still be a Cat 1 when it hits the Atlantic on the other side.
Gringrinngghost
Well-Known Member
...The 11am update might be interesting as well...
Gringrinngghost
Well-Known Member
Gringrinngghost
Well-Known Member
Code:
000
WTNT64 KNHC 071312 CCA
TCUAT4
Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
805 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
Corrected distance from Tampa
...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has
strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h). Milton is a category
4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data
from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has
fallen to 940 mb (27.76 inches).
These changes will be reflected in the normal 10 AM CDT (1500 UTC)
advisory.
SUMMARY OF 805 AM CDT...1305 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 92.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Brown/Blake
Last edited:
TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
Threat title could be edited to say 10/9-10/10 since it now appears to be late Wed to early hours Thurs.
Gringrinngghost
Well-Known Member
I think it should be simply: Hurricane Milton (2024)
With all due respect, this is a pretty limited and ignorant statement. We were there for Ian. Flights were cancelled before our DVC room reservation was up (MCO closed Tuesday at noon, if memory serves, and we were supposed to leave Wednesday evening). We had gotten off a cruise ship on Monday morning. Disney was at least generous enough to force us to use points for the additional nights we had to stay because there were no flights out and all car rental agencies at the airport were also closing.
Gringrinngghost
Well-Known Member
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