Looks like they do expect the dry air to wrap in the center and weaken the storm just before landfall, but it will still be a very strong hurricane. But any weakening is welcome. Incredible how fast this thing has formed and strengthened.
In which ways?
This just came across my desk. Mind you this is one data point.
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 10:42Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Milton
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 10:21:47Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.88N 92.45W
B. Center Fix Location: 188 statute miles (303 km) to the NW (319°) from Campeche, Campeche, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,710m (8,891ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 955mb (28.20 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 200° at 12kts (From the SSW at 14mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: Not Available
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound (Undecoded): NA
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 84° at 100kts (From the E at 115.1mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the N (0°) of center fix at 10:19:34Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: Not Available
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound (Undecoded): NA
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 278° at 110kts (From the W at 126.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the S (185°) of center fix at 10:24:40Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,061m (10,043ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 110kts (~ 126.6mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the S (185°) from the flight level center at 10:24:40Z
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- SFMR and flight level winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)Safe to say, we are 100% in Bombogenesis and Milton is a Category 3. If anything, likely the storm is down to about 950mb (Recon data shows a current extrapolated surface pressure of 951.8 mb).
Okay for us laymen what does all this data mean?
I was in the the park in 2004 and didn’t see anyone with toothbrushes or luggage in the parks either, but I am prettY sure they had them. Are you seriously so obtuse to think if you don’t see people with things in park they don’t have them
000
WTNT64 KNHC 071100
TCUAT4
Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
600 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON A MAJOR HURRICANE...
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aicraft indicate that Milton has
strengthened to a major hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). Milton is a category three
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from
the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to
954 mb (28.17 inches).
A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) to reflect
this change and update the forecast.
SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Brown/BlakeKeep trying to defend on guests having battery powered radios in the parks in 04’
Closed eyewall = rapid intensification is likely
Hurricane Hunters found that between the 5am EDT update to the time that I posted that message at roughly 7:00am that the storm is undergoing RAPID intensification.
Is that 126 mph Cat 3 over Orlando / Kissimmee or approaching Tampa St Pete at 126 mph ? Charley had winds of 106mph in 04’ that destroyed a number of homes and a few neighborhoods in Orlando / Kissimmee in 04’.
Currently found winds.
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 278° at 110kts (From the W at 126.6mph)
Which will likely shift south afterwards. Windshield wiper effect back and forth and back and forth.
Its going to be dependent on the wind sheer when it starts to get that. As I told someone yesterday: "This system is due to warm ocean temperatures, no storms in the gulf which cause upwelling (the process by which wind-driven ocean currents move cold, nutrient-rich water from the ocean depths to the surface) and a lack of wind shear. The perfect ingredients."
There is no way to know right now. These numbers are just what was observed during the most recent fly through this morning. There are still 2-3 days of development left before landfall. The problem right now would be it is strengthening (maybe) faster than expected and, as I stated, there is potential for some minor weakening just before landfall, if this thing cranks up to a Cat 5 within the next day or 2, any weakening won't be enough to prevent this from being catastrophic.