Hurricane Milton coming to FL

[HakunaMatata89]

This one is going to be ugly

 

[vikescaper]

I took a little time today to watch football (Skol Vikings!) and then got busy with prep. I was able to get the majority of the windows boarded up and went to the store to get some supplies and groceries. When I was out and about, I actually saw police escorting dump trucks hauling debris from Helene. I have a few small things that I will need to finish Monday and Tuesday. I asked my mom and sister if they wanted to get out of dodge (we are all in zone D in Pinellas County) but they want to stay. The crew that was on duty at work today decided to get ahead of prep and started to put things away. That said, the next few days are going to be long and I am already exhausted. I will also admit that I am very scared. Please be safe everybody!

 

[Gringrinngghost]

Same track?

Same track until 11pm. NHC updates the track at 5 am/pm and 11am/pm with intermediate advisories at 2 am/pm and 8am/pm.

That being said, in my educated opinion I am fully expecting the next forecast track to jog north quite possibly to be north of Tampa. After reviewing the latest modeling data, I believe that the area of Landfall will shift likely to be near Homosassa Beach with a current ± of about 40 miles in the early hours of Thursday morning. There are many variables in play, especially as the jet stream will be playing a very big role in the steering of the system, but that being said, I think Tampa will save from a head on collision with the center of the storm. Technically speaking, we are in a medium range forecast, and short term is where the calls are solidified, but I do believe that we will see that track go north.

I have a good degree of confidence in my forecast, but knowing that we will have more data over the next few days, it’s all the more likely that the track will shift. Please do not take this message and discount the storm. There will be some devastating impacts for some areas that were already hit less then two weeks ago. It will be closer to Orlando and Tampa then Helene and you should still prepare and heed what local officials tell you. To reiterate, I have a good degree of confidence in my forecast, but track will shift as we get closer to the day as we have more and more data. Storms are to quote a friend, “a live, living breathing things... it's not an inanimate object” and we are all humans and humans have the tendency to make mistakes.

For those wondering; Homosassa Beach is north of Tampa by about 60 miles and for @TalkingHead (who said last time “Give the guy who predicted Steinhatchee a free Philharmagic Fastpass!”), if you would like to note this prediction, it’s about 80miles to the south east of Steinhatchee.

 

[JoeCamel]

I took a little time today to watch football (Skol Vikings!) and then got busy with prep. I was able to get the majority of the windows boarded up and went to the store to get some supplies and groceries. When I was out and about, I actually saw police escorting dump trucks hauling debris from Helene. I have a few small things that I will need to finish Monday and Tuesday. I asked my mom and sister if they wanted to get out of dodge (we are all in zone D in Pinellas County) but they want to stay. The crew that was on duty at work today decided to get ahead of prep and started to put things away. That said, the next few days are going to be long and I am already exhausted. I will also admit that I am very scared. Please be safe everybody!

Some indications Milton may draw in a bunch of dry air and get some shear so it weakens before landfall, I hope that happens for your sake

 

[EricsBiscuit]

Same track until 11pm. NHC updates the track at 5 am/pm and 11am/pm with intermediate advisories at 2 am/pm and 8am/pm.

That being said, in my educated opinion I am fully expecting the next forecast track to jog north quite possibly to be north of Tampa. After reviewing the latest modeling data, I believe that the area of Landfall will shift likely to be near Homosassa Beach with a current ± of about 40 miles in the early hours of Thursday morning. There are many variables in play, especially as the jet stream will be playing a very big role in the steering of the system, but that being said, I think Tampa will save from a head on collision with the center of the storm. Technically speaking, we are in a medium range forecast, and short term is where the calls are solidified, but I do believe that we will see that track go north.

That being said, I have a good degree of confidence in my forecast, but knowing that we will have more data over the next few days, it’s all the more likely that the track will shift. Please do not take this message and discount the storm. There will be some devastating impacts for some areas that were already hit less then two weeks ago. It will be closer to Orlando and Tampa then Helene and you should still prepare and heed what local officials tell you. To reiterate, I have a good degree of confidence in my forecast, but track will shift as we get closer to the day as we have more and more data. Storms are to quote a friend, “a live, living breathing things... it's not an inanimate object” and we are all humans and humans have the tendency to make mistakes.

For those wondering; Homosassa Beach is north of Tampa by about 60 miles and for @TalkingHead (who said last time “Give the guy who predicted Steinhatchee a free Philharmagic Fastpass!”), if you would like to note this prediction, it’s about 80miles to the south east of Steinhatchee.

What changed from this morning? Isn’t there a lot of wind shear north of Tampa Wednesday and how would that affect the storm?

 

[Dead2009]

Honestly it’s pretty irresponsible that WDW isn’t already encouraging people to leave and to not come.

To be fair, no tourist attraction anywhere is going to tell people "not to arrive for their visit". The most they're going to do is make people aware of the impending weather, issue refunds if people want them, and announce closings if there are any. It's on the state of Florida to advise people not to fly in.

 

[Dead2009]

I don’t know about that . During the 3 freakish hurricanes to strike Central FL in 12 weeks on 04’ and parks closed for all 3 hurricanes smartphones did not exist and we all had those pocket size flip phones . Now with all having smartphones information can be in all phones immediately to warn of impending weather.

Computers, the internet, and more importantly, the news existed in 2004.

 

[Brian]

Same track until 11pm. NHC updates the track at 5 am/pm and 11am/pm with intermediate advisories at 2 am/pm and 8am/pm.

That being said, in my educated opinion I am fully expecting the next forecast track to jog north quite possibly to be north of Tampa. After reviewing the latest modeling data, I believe that the area of Landfall will shift likely to be near Homosassa Beach with a current ± of about 40 miles in the early hours of Thursday morning. There are many variables in play, especially as the jet stream will be playing a very big role in the steering of the system, but that being said, I think Tampa will save from a head on collision with the center of the storm. Technically speaking, we are in a medium range forecast, and short term is where the calls are solidified, but I do believe that we will see that track go north.

That being said, I have a good degree of confidence in my forecast, but knowing that we will have more data over the next few days, it’s all the more likely that the track will shift. Please do not take this message and discount the storm. There will be some devastating impacts for some areas that were already hit less then two weeks ago. It will be closer to Orlando and Tampa then Helene and you should still prepare and heed what local officials tell you. To reiterate, I have a good degree of confidence in my forecast, but track will shift as we get closer to the day as we have more and more data. Storms are to quote a friend, “a live, living breathing things... it's not an inanimate object” and we are all humans and humans have the tendency to make mistakes.

For those wondering; Homosassa Beach is north of Tampa by about 60 miles and for @TalkingHead (who said last time “Give the guy who predicted Steinhatchee a free Philharmagic Fastpass!”), if you would like to note this prediction, it’s about 80miles to the south east of Steinhatchee.

A lot of the TV meteorologists are saying it's going to track further south of the current track. Is there a preferred outcome for the WDW area when it comes to either tracking north or south of WDW? In other words, would there a better side to be on with this storm?

 

[maxairmike]

Same track until 11pm. NHC updates the track at 5 am/pm and 11am/pm with intermediate advisories at 2 am/pm and 8am/pm.

That being said, in my educated opinion I am fully expecting the next forecast track to jog north quite possibly to be north of Tampa. After reviewing the latest modeling data, I believe that the area of Landfall will shift likely to be near Homosassa Beach with a current ± of about 40 miles in the early hours of Thursday morning. There are many variables in play, especially as the jet stream will be playing a very big role in the steering of the system, but that being said, I think Tampa will save from a head on collision with the center of the storm. Technically speaking, we are in a medium range forecast, and short term is where the calls are solidified, but I do believe that we will see that track go north.

That being said, I have a good degree of confidence in my forecast, but knowing that we will have more data over the next few days, it’s all the more likely that the track will shift. Please do not take this message and discount the storm. There will be some devastating impacts for some areas that were already hit less then two weeks ago. It will be closer to Orlando and Tampa then Helene and you should still prepare and heed what local officials tell you. To reiterate, I have a good degree of confidence in my forecast, but track will shift as we get closer to the day as we have more and more data. Storms are to quote a friend, “a live, living breathing things... it's not an inanimate object” and we are all humans and humans have the tendency to make mistakes.

For those wondering; Homosassa Beach is north of Tampa by about 60 miles and for @TalkingHead (who said last time “Give the guy who predicted Steinhatchee a free Philharmagic Fastpass!”), if you would like to note this prediction, it’s about 80miles to the south east of Steinhatchee.

Decided to take a look at the models a little bit ago and noticed they're starting to drift northwards beyond Lake Apopka, so I hope the track ends up reflecting what your interpretation is, and that it holds for my sanity/piece of mind. The winds definitely seem to fall off faster inland in the models than what I was expecting, which also is easing my mind a bit.

 

[JoeCamel]

A lot of the TV meteorologists are saying it's going to track further south of the current track. Is there a preferred outcome for the WDW area when it comes to either tracking north or south of WDW? In other words, would there a better side to be on with this storm?

Better side is always the left side looking at the track, winds/embedded storms are counter clockwise so the water and weather is pushed on the right side.

 

[Gringrinngghost]

What changed from this morning?

So the main thing that has changed from this morning (6am EDT and prior) is that we have had tons of new data coming in. A good example to that is the Hurricane Hunters flights today into the storm as well as the synoptic surveillance (see attached image). As well as the National Weather Service upper air sounding stations in the Southern Region launching special soundings every 6 hrs to input real time data into all computer models to help refine the track and intensity forecasts of Milton.

Isn’t there a lot of wind shear north of Tampa Wednesday and how would that affect the storm?

There is more sheer north of Tampa and we are seeing that reflected in the forecasts for the most part. The sheer will help weaken the system, but the question is by how much. The more sheer we can get into the system will help limit storm development, but does have the ability to widen the system out and thusly having larger wind fields. The National Hurricane Center's 5PM Discussion did broach this topic as well.

Later on, vertical wind shear is
forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and
some weakening is anticipated.  However, the regional hurricane
models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are
expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very
dangerous impacts spread out over a big area.

A lot of the TV meteorologists are saying it's going to track further south of the current track. Is there a preferred outcome for the WDW area when it comes to either tracking north or south of WDW? In other words, would there a better side to be on with this storm?

With the above mention of the system and the wind sheer, its going to be very much depending beyond the rain bands but on how large the wind fields are as well as the relative storm motion. If the storm tracks north, and say it his closer to Homosassa Beach, the Orlando region would get the front right quadrant of the system where historically the system is the strongest and has the highest chance of Tornadoes. If the storm goes south of Tampa towards Sarasota, the area would get the front left quadrant, which will have a lower risk of Tornados. Here is a good image explaining Hurricane Quadrants:

Decided to take a look at the models a little bit ago and noticed they're starting to drift northwards beyond Lake Apopka, so I hope the track ends up reflecting what your interpretation is, and that it holds for my sanity/piece of mind. The winds definitely seem to fall off faster inland in the models than what I was expecting, which also is easing my mind a bit.

As I stated above, beyond the rain bands it will be on how large the wind fields are as well as the relative storm motion.

 

[durangojim]

My niece and nephew along with my sister a brother in law are planning on attending ding their first MNSSHP Friday night and are flying down from Detroit early that morning. Hope all is well by then.

 

[celluloid]

First County School Closings that I am aware of.

View attachment 819452

Storm Update: PCPS Schools/Offices Open Monday, But Closed Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday
An update from PCPS Superintendent Fred Heid:

Dear families,

This is an important update regarding Hurricane Milton.

This storm is expected to continue strengthening and impact our state in the coming days.
Based on the most current forecast, we do not expect significant weather in Polk County tomorrow, Monday, Oct. 7. Consequently, all PCPS schools and offices will remain open during regular hours tomorrow.
However, we will be canceling or rescheduling Monday’s after-school programs and sports. For specific information about rescheduled events, we encourage you to reach out to your child’s school directly.

Please be advised that all PCPS schools and offices will be closed on Tuesday, Oct. 8, Wednesday, Oct. 9, and Thursday, Oct. 10, in response to this storm.

County emergency officials have directed PCPS to activate some of our schools that will be serving as storm shelters for those evacuating their homes.

County emergency officials will be sharing shelter information with the public as it becomes available. Please note only certain schools will be activated to serve as shelters. Visit the Polk County Government’s website and social media for official shelter information.

Again, all PCPS schools and offices will be closed on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

Please note that our decision to close schools does not extend to charter and private schools. We recommend that you contact those institutions directly for any relevant information.

At this time, no decision has been made regarding Friday’s operations for PCPS schools and offices. We will continue to work closely with emergency management personnel, as well as monitor weather forecasts and this storm’s impact on our community and state.

For any official announcements or updates, please stay tuned for communications via automated phone calls, emails, our website and social media accounts.

As always, your safety is our top priority. We encourage you to prepare adequately and ensure your family is ready for any weather-related challenges.

Thank you for your attention and cooperation. Please stay safe.

Sincerely,
Fred Heid
Superintendent
Polk County Public Schools

Lee county announced closures until Thursday this morning. That school district is terrible in doing sk and communication as they did not announce closure for Friday until late Thursday night for Helene.
The only reason they were so prompt this time(Lee County) is because schools become shelters.

 

[celluloid]

Computers, the internet, and more importantly, the news existed in 2004.

Most important to me in Fort Myers at the time was raido. It was somewhat reassuring during the storms to hear meteorologists still talking even if your TV and power were already out.

 

[Bullseye1967]

 

[Touchdown]

Still going for the direct Tampa Bay hit, oh my god.

 

[Vacationeer]

Hurricane Milton forecast to reach 145 mph, seen as ‘life-threatening’ storm for Florida

The National Hurricane Center’s intensity forecast shows Hurricane Milton rapidly strengthening to Category 4 intensity within the next couple of days before its expected Florida landfall.

www.orlandosentinel.com

“The intensity forecast appears straightforward at first, with rapid intensification likely while the small hurricane remains within light shear and over very deep warm waters,” said NHC senior hurricane specialist Eric Blake. “Intensity guidance is about as bullish as I’ve seen in this part of the basin, with almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two.”

…The NHC’s intensity forecast has it growing to a Category 4 major hurricane in the next 36 hours with 145 mph sustained winds and 175 mph gusts, but it could reduce strength as it approaches Florida’s coast on Wednesday.

…“While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued tonight or early Monday,” Blake said.

Rainfall also is forecast to dump 5-10 inches across much of the state with some areas getting as much as 15 inches.

...“Vertical wind shear is forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and some weakening is anticipated,” Blake said. “However, the regional hurricane models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area.”

The models still have it as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph sustained winds and 150 mph gusts within a three-day cone that for now is targeting landfall near Sarasota but ranges south to beyond Naples and north to near Horseshoe Beach in the Big Bend.

“It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track,” Blake said.

The system is expected to lose intensity as it crossed the peninsula, but the projected path has it never losing hurricane strength.

The latest forecast path consensus has it moving across southern Central Florida and potentially exiting in southern Brevard County into the Atlantic, where it would still be a Category 1 storm with 75 mph sustained winds and 90 mph gusts well offshore.

 

[celluloid]

There has not been a direct Tampa hit in 103 years. This would be wild and I am worried for my fam in St. Pete.

 

[Tom P.]

Okay, I'm not trying to distract from the seriousness of this situation. But just to take one humorous aside, am I the only one who, everytime they refer to the "cone of uncertainty," thinks of the cone of silence from Get Smart?

 

[Lilofan]

Computers, the internet, and more importantly, the news existed in 2004.

lol . When at Disney where were the computers located in the resorts or theme parks in 2004 for guests to immediate access info ?