Hurricane Irma

rocketraccoon

Well-Known Member
Okay guys... what is yall's best guess as to what day(s) the park(s) will close early/completely?

Given the latest runs, it seems like the MOST LIKELY impact will be similar to that of Hurricane Matthew. Obviously it could be better or worse than that depending on where Irma ultimately tracks, but I think that's the best guess.

In that situation, do we think the parks would probably close early Sunday and then the full day Monday and resume operations Tuesday?
That seems roughly right if they have to clean up the parks. Current models show the hurricane out by Jacksonville by 8AM on Monday, so it could open late then.
 

LAKid53

Official Member of the Girly Girl Fan Club
Premium Member
Okay guys... what is yall's best guess as to what day(s) the park(s) will close early/completely?

Given the latest runs, it seems like the MOST LIKELY impact will be similar to that of Hurricane Matthew. Obviously it could be better or worse than that depending on where Irma ultimately tracks, but I think that's the best guess.

In that situation, do we think the parks would probably close early Sunday and then the full day Monday and resume operations Tuesday?

Based upon the current models, that seems most plausible. Monday evening we will experience wind and rain in NW Florida. May not resume in the morning on Tuesday, but I'd think by Tuesday afternoon. Will need time once the storm passes to check for damage and clean up - much easier to do in daylight.
 
3 people have lost their lives in Puerto Rico...

That is awfully sad. And was probably completely avoidable because Puerto Rico really didn't have that bad of weather. I think the highest gust in San Juan was about 70-75mph, and that was about as close as the storm got to any part of the island.
 

LAKid53

Official Member of the Girly Girl Fan Club
Premium Member
Google Maps is recommending going up to Lake City and then getting on I-75 there apparently. We'll see tomorrow morning I suppose, but the fact it's going that far out from where I am shows how bad 75 must be near Gainesville. Under normal traffic that'd be 45 minutes to an hour extra.

75 is always bad around Gainesville. Can't imagine what it must be now.

What route are you going to take to Lake City? And where are you going once you're on 75?
 

disneygeek90

Well-Known Member
Okay guys... what is yall's best guess as to what day(s) the park(s) will close early/completely?

Given the latest runs, it seems like the MOST LIKELY impact will be similar to that of Hurricane Matthew. Obviously it could be better or worse than that depending on where Irma ultimately tracks, but I think that's the best guess.

In that situation, do we think the parks would probably close early Sunday and then the full day Monday and resume operations Tuesday?
I think you're downplaying it quite a bit. Matthew is nothing compared to Irma in sheer strength and size.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
What do they think could happen? Worst case scenario? There must be some idea.
The only thing I was ever concerned with was debris flying, windows, tiles from the roof, and the aftermath, not the structure itself failing.
Most walls in a high rise are not part of what is actually holding it up. I image the connections holding walls to the structure would fail before you were able to build up enough pressure to knock over the structure. I image window walls and curtain walls definitely will not perform to unrealistic expectations. There will be some water intrusion and possibly even glass that fails. The big question will be how well contractors installed the products. Unfortunately “high end” homes aren’t always built by “high end” contractors. There will probably be a lot of law suits since Florida allows condos ten years after construction to sue contractors.
 

21stamps

Well-Known Member
Those buildings are almost certainly on deep pile/drilled shafts. The bigger question is if they designed to resist uplift in addition to the traditional vertical load of the building. Obviously the lateral force of a 185MPH wind on a 20 story building is significant. That said, the requirement should be in the design standards with a significant factor of safety.

And 20 story is basically a Midrise.

I trust the cities in SoFla enough that they would not build the 40+ story buildings if the structures couldn't withstand the wind.

I've never seen so many private planes making a run for it: https://www.flightradar24.com/26.85,-80.99/8

Yesterday people were talking about the Boca executive airport having planes fly out every few minutes. A lot of people trying to get their planes and yachts out.

The boats that are left will most likely be severely damaged.
3 people have lost their lives in Puerto Rico...

Did something change? I thought it wasn't supposed to hit Puerto Rico.
 

rocketraccoon

Well-Known Member
75 is always bad around Gainesville. Can't imagine what it must be now.

What route are you going to take to Lake City? And where are you going once you're on 75?
Going on State Road 100 from Palatka, passing through Starke, Lake Butler, and finally Lake City. Heading north to Griffin, GA where family has a pretty inland house on a hill. Looks like plenty of holdups at the border near Valdosta at the moment, but it shouldn't be that bad afterwards.
 

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
Did something change? I thought it wasn't supposed to hit Puerto Rico.

It wasn't a direct hit but it was still bad enough.

"Gov. Ricardo Rosselló told CNN he thinks the island was being hit hard even though the eye of the storm stayed off shore.

"From the center of operations that we have over here in San Juan, there is pretty significant damage already done," he said, citing wind gusts of more than 100 mph."
 
I think you're downplaying it quite a bit. Matthew is nothing compared to Irma in sheer strength and size.

I think you are downplaying what Matthew looked like it could do a couple days out.

The effects 60-70 miles west of the center of Irma are going to be similar to the effects 60-70 miles of Matthew. San Juan Puerto Rico got within 50 miles of the center of the storm and never saw hurricane force winds.

If the storm takes a similar path relative to Orlando that Matthew took (and that's what the current track shows) then I think that's pretty reasonable.

If the storm makes a landfall, even for just a few hours down in south Florida near Miami (God help them) then the storm might be even weaker than Matthew was when it passes east of WDW 12 hours later.
 

21stamps

Well-Known Member
It wasn't a direct hit but it was still bad enough.

"Gov. Ricardo Rosselló told CNN he thinks the island was being hit hard even though the eye of the storm stayed off shore.

"From the center of operations that we have over here in San Juan, there is pretty significant damage already done," he said, citing wind gusts of more than 100 mph."

How did the people die? Outside?

My heart is breaking for the Caribbean islands right now.
 

LAKid53

Official Member of the Girly Girl Fan Club
Premium Member
And 20 story is basically a Midrise.

I trust the cities in SoFla enough that they would not build the 40+ story building if the structures couldn't withstand the wind.



Yesterday people were talking about the Boca executive airport having planes fly out every few minutes. A lot of people trying to get their planes and yachts out.

The boats that are left will most likely be severely damaged.


Did something change? I thought it wasn't supposed to hit Puerto Rico.

The eye just brushed the northern coast. But those winds extend out hundreds of miles from the eye. The sad thing is that PR's electrical grid is in poor shape and residents will be without power for who knows how long.
 

LAKid53

Official Member of the Girly Girl Fan Club
Premium Member
Going on State Road 100 from Palatka, passing through Starke, Lake Butler, and finally Lake City. Heading north to Griffin, GA where family has a pretty inland house on a hill. Looks like plenty of holdups at the border near Valdosta at the moment, but it shouldn't be that bad afterwards.

Can you take 85 instead of 75? We always go 85 to Atlanta. Much less traffic and speeds are similar to 75 - 65 to 70 mph most of the way.
 

cosmicgirl

Well-Known Member
Yesterday people were talking about the Boca executive airport having planes fly out every few minutes. A lot of people trying to get their planes and yachts out.

The boats that are left will most likely be severely damaged.

That, and the rich and famous are being shuttled out. There constant stream of private jets, both in and out.
 

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