Hurricane Irma

disneygeek90

disneygeek90

Well-Known Member
Andrew Burns said:
I believe IASW could be shuttered in events like these. I always thought it weird how it was situated and now it kinda makes sense.

I don't think there would be anything catastrophic if queue for Pooh took a hit, they could still run the ride.

Help me... my brain is failing PP??
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Peter Pan. Probably similar to Pooh. I wonder if they can move the cars off the track inside the building.
 
monothingie

monothingie

Evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.
Premium Member
Andrew Burns said:
I believe IASW could be shuttered in events like these. I always thought it weird how it was situated and now it kinda makes sense.

I don't think there would be anything catastrophic if queue for Pooh took a hit, they could still run the ride.

Help me... my brain is failing PP??
Click to expand...

Peter Pan
 
21stamps

21stamps

Well-Known Member
sudokujesus said:
I don't disagree. But given that a Florida landfall is virtually unavoidable at this point, a landfall near the southwest end of Everglads National park is arguably the best place in the entire state for it to hit if the goal is to minimize the number of people that face truly catastrophic conditions. Maybe the sparsely populated area between the Big Bend between Apalachee Bay and the northern end of the Tampa metro area would be better, but that's about it.

And you are right about it being disastrous for potentially hundreds, thousands, or millions of people. I'm just saying that if it hits the southwestern side of Everglades NP, that number will be many orders of magnitude less than if it were to hit 30 miles east.
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Read about Wilma. Look where the eye hit, and look at the amount of areas damaged from it. Wilma was a Cat 3 when she hit.

Downplaying Irma as anything less than covering an area that Wilma covered is a dangerous way to think. Andrew is a bad comparison because the amount of areas impacted by Andrew are irrelevant with Irma due to the size difference of the storms.
 
Blueliner

Blueliner

Well-Known Member
sudokujesus said:
Very familiar with Florida. And an avid follower of hurricanes and weather in general for 3 decades.

Charlie did peak in intensity as it was making landfall in Florida as a strong category 4.

And you are right there is not a huge distance between the Everglades and Miami... but the difference in impact over 20 or 30 miles can be monumental. Just look at the damage in Fort Lauderdale compared to Homestead and Perrine from Hurricane Andrew. You're talking about the difference between trees and power lines down and the total shredding of homes and businesses.

And yes, you are right that probably only 3-5% of areas that go under hurricane warnings take the full brunt of the storm, and of course you prepare for the worst every time because it takes time to prepare and evacuate and you just don't know who is going to be the unlucky 5%. I'm not telling people to stay in Miami because if the storm takes the exact path the models show 60 hours out that Miami will merely get 80-90mph winds instead of 150mph winds. That's ridiculous. I'm just pointing out that if it crosses the keys and landfalls near the Flamingo Visitor Center in Everglades National Park... that would put the population centers in the Miami metro area east of the nasty eastern eyewall. It would put Fort Meyers and Naples on the west side of the storm, and the first areas of decent population that would bear the brunt would be up around Lake Okechobee and the storm would be weakening by that point. I'm not saying it would be a walk in the park by any stretch... just that it is far from the worst case picture that showed the thing landfalling near Homestead and moving north putting the entire Miami-WPB megalopolis in the brutal eastern eyewall.

As for all those hurricanes that weren't at their top strength when they struck Florida... you're absolutely right (except Charlie which peaked at landfall and was rapidly intensifying at the time). But you know what other storm is going to fit into that category, almost certainly? Irma!
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You make some very good points in this post. My fingers are crossed that the storm tracks precisely as you have described, as it is the "least bad" of the potentially horrible outcomes. I grew up in Mobile, now live in Birmingham, closely watch all of these storms (out of habit), and obsess over potential outcomes.

I just think that maybe a few folks, myself included, found some of your earlier posts to be a bit argumentative with respect to the potential impact to Florida. We should probably let people just react in their own way to the uncertainty about this storm, without implying that their concerns or feelings are somehow unjustified.
 
solidyne

solidyne

Well-Known Member
MisterPenguin said:
There was no one being hyperbolic. There is a real chance for Irma to be truly disastrous.
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Yes, that second sentence is more reasonable. Compare these:
(1) This WILL be the most brutal storm EVER to hit Florida.
(2) This is very likely to be the strongest hurricane to hit Florida in our lifetimes.
Isn't it clear that (1) is an unsupportable claim and that (2) is a truthful yet sufficiently scary warning?
 
S

sudokujesus

Member
Blueliner said:
You make some very good points in this post. My fingers are crossed that the storm tracks precisely as you have described, as it is the "least bad" of the potentially horrible outcomes. I grew up in Mobile, now live in Birmingham, closely watch all of these storms (out of habit), and obsess over potential outcomes.

I just think that maybe a few folks, myself included, found some of your earlier posts to be a bit argumentative with respect to the potential impact to Florida. We should probably let people just react in their own way to the uncertainty about this storm, without implying that their concerns or feelings are somehow unjustified.
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I am writing these posts from my desk in Riverchase. I should be driving down to Orlando for my week long Disney trip, but I digress...
 
DisneyNerd12

DisneyNerd12

Active Member
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You had one job.
 
Blueliner

Blueliner

Well-Known Member
sudokujesus said:
I am writing these posts from my desk in Riverchase. I should be driving down to Orlando for my week long Disney trip, but I digress...
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disneygeek90 said:
I wish I wasn't currently writing from my desk in Orlando.
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My sincere hope for both of you (watching intently from downtown Birmingham) is that Orlando gets nothing more than a manageable amount of wind and rain.
 
crxbrett

crxbrett

Well-Known Member
When it comes to disasters, be it wildfires, tornadoes, volcanoes, blizzards, earthquakes or hurricanes - always be safe rather than sorry. There is no harm in being over-prepared or being overly cautious about this storm. It's those times that people tend to let their guard down or get comfortable or think it will never happen to them and is when things can sadly turn into tragedy.
 
solidyne

solidyne

Well-Known Member
The Mom said:
I'm getting a little tired of a few posters dominating this thread with constant , "I'm right, you're wrong and I'm going to keep on pushing you until you admit it" posts.
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I assume it is only coincidence that Mom's admonishment follows my one and only such argumentative post, while dozens of others from the 24/7 repeat offenders go apparently unnoticed.
 

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